Forums - Sales Discussion - The PS4 shipped 110.4m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

The PS4 shipped 110.4m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 120 million 136 11.70%
 
120.0 - 122.4 million 198 17.04%
 
122.5 - 124.9 million 135 11.62%
 
125.0 - 127.4 million 201 17.30%
 
127.5 - 129.9 million 109 9.38%
 
130.0 - 132.4 million 178 15.32%
 
132.5 - 134.9 million 27 2.32%
 
135.0 - 137.4 million 26 2.24%
 
137.5 - 140.0 million 16 1.38%
 
More than 140 million 136 11.70%
 
Total:1,162
curl-6 said:
victor83fernandes said:

 You need to travel more, back in Portugal I barely know anyone with a ps4, many people are buying ps3 right now for the very cheap games and free online. 

Sony can and will drop the price, I guarantee you that, I don't know what you are on but 300? I've seen ps4 slim for less than 200 already several times.

You must be naive to think ps4 doesn't break, I had one just a few months old that was having graphical glitches, many people complain their disc drive doesn't work, or hdmi failures, everything breaks, as long as its electronics.

Your firsthand experiences aren't a big enough piece of the global picture to be relevant. 

And PS4s are far more reliable than PS2s, the latter were notorious for the disc drive dying.

Sony have said the want to move people from PS4 to PS5 faster than previous generational transitions, so clearly pushing for the highest lifetime PS4 sales is not their plan.

What sony wants and what really happens are 2 very different things. These new tech SSDs will not materialize out of thin air.

Sony also can't sell the ps5 for less than 500 dollars, and even at that price they will be losing money per console sold, so business wise they'd rather sell less at the beginning.

Sony also can't force parents to spend minimum 570 dollars if they could spend 200 for christmas gifts. The customers always set the market, not sony or any other company.



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Hit the wrong one, wanted to click the one above. My guess is 124M but I clicked 125-127.4M



victor83fernandes said:
curl-6 said:

Your firsthand experiences aren't a big enough piece of the global picture to be relevant. 

And PS4s are far more reliable than PS2s, the latter were notorious for the disc drive dying.

Sony have said the want to move people from PS4 to PS5 faster than previous generational transitions, so clearly pushing for the highest lifetime PS4 sales is not their plan.

What sony wants and what really happens are 2 very different things. These new tech SSDs will not materialize out of thin air.

Sony also can't sell the ps5 for less than 500 dollars, and even at that price they will be losing money per console sold, so business wise they'd rather sell less at the beginning.

Sony also can't force parents to spend minimum 570 dollars if they could spend 200 for christmas gifts. The customers always set the market, not sony or any other company.

And that market is already near saturation point for the PS4. The people with a $200 Christmas budget will have gotten one for that much at any one of the last three holiday seasons. After six and a half years, there just aren't that many people left who want one that don't already have one.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
victor83fernandes said:

What sony wants and what really happens are 2 very different things. These new tech SSDs will not materialize out of thin air.

Sony also can't sell the ps5 for less than 500 dollars, and even at that price they will be losing money per console sold, so business wise they'd rather sell less at the beginning.

Sony also can't force parents to spend minimum 570 dollars if they could spend 200 for christmas gifts. The customers always set the market, not sony or any other company.

And that market is already near saturation point for the PS4. The people with a $200 Christmas budget will have gotten one for that much at any one of the last three holiday seasons. After six and a half years, there just aren't that many people left who want one that don't already have one.

I don't know what planet you live in, but ps4 is selling about 1 million per month right now, before Last of us 2, before ghosts of tsushima, I really don't understand your logic.



victor83fernandes said:
curl-6 said:

And that market is already near saturation point for the PS4. The people with a $200 Christmas budget will have gotten one for that much at any one of the last three holiday seasons. After six and a half years, there just aren't that many people left who want one that don't already have one.

I don't know what planet you live in, but ps4 is selling about 1 million per month right now, before Last of us 2, before ghosts of tsushima, I really don't understand your logic.

My logic is that two games aren't going to sell 50 million units of a console that's already been out six and a half years and is getting replaced in six months. Those games will give relatively short-lived bumps in the downward trajectory that's only natural of a console nearing the end of its lifecycle.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 02 June 2020

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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I don't really see the point in "replacing" consoles. You can sell the PS4 for another 4-5 years at $150-$199 alongside the PS5 with little to no problem.

The reason manufacturers create this artificial "replacement paradox" is to force people to only buy the newer system.

People still want the SNES and NES even today, sneaker manufacturers have no problem selling popular sneaker models that are 20-25 years old as current releases.

There's no reason with digital storefronts nowadays that consoles can't be kept on storeshelves for many, many years after "successive" consoles are released. 

The 2DS XL could be sold for many more years if Nintendo wanted to sell it for $99.99 and made a digital storefront where you could select from hundreds of GBA, DS, and 3DS games for $20-$25 a pop (no retail overhead), but they likely don't want to do that. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 02 June 2020

Soundwave said:
I don't really see the point in "replacing" consoles. You can sell the PS4 for another 4-5 years at $150-$199 alongside the PS5 with little to no problem.

The reason manufacturers create this artificial "replacement paradox" is to force people to only buy the newer system.

People still want the SNES and NES even today, sneaker manufacturers have no problem selling popular sneaker models that are 20-25 years old as current releases.

Yeah Sony have been pretty clear about it; they've said they want to move people on PS5 as fast as possible. They're not going to stick with the PS4 for another six years to try and reach an arbitrary number of units sold.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
Soundwave said:
I don't really see the point in "replacing" consoles. You can sell the PS4 for another 4-5 years at $150-$199 alongside the PS5 with little to no problem.

The reason manufacturers create this artificial "replacement paradox" is to force people to only buy the newer system.

People still want the SNES and NES even today, sneaker manufacturers have no problem selling popular sneaker models that are 20-25 years old as current releases.

Yeah Sony have been pretty clear about it; they've said they want to move people on PS5 as fast as possible. They're not going to stick with the PS4 for another six years to try and reach an arbitrary number of units sold.

They can say that all they want, but the fact is, cross-gen games are likely going to be continue to be released for another 2-3 years and if PS5 is $500, then there is a viable market for PS4 at $200-$250. 

The other factor with the PS3 being phased out so quickly was the CELL processor being a custom part always cost Sony a lot of money and was a pain in the ass to keep around, the PS4 really doesn't have that problem using fairly generic off the shelf parts. 



Soundwave said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah Sony have been pretty clear about it; they've said they want to move people on PS5 as fast as possible. They're not going to stick with the PS4 for another six years to try and reach an arbitrary number of units sold.

They can say that all they want, but the fact is, cross-gen games are likely going to be continue to be released for another 2-3 years and if PS5 is $500, then there is a viable market for PS4 at $200-$250. 

Didn't say otherwise, but 160 million, that's never gonna happen.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
Soundwave said:

They can say that all they want, but the fact is, cross-gen games are likely going to be continue to be released for another 2-3 years and if PS5 is $500, then there is a viable market for PS4 at $200-$250. 

Didn't say otherwise, but 160 million, that's never gonna happen.

If they wanted to do the same thing they did with the PS2, they probably could do it, but they simply don't want to.

The PS1 sold another 30 million after the PS2 launched, the PS2 obviously sold a ton after the PS3 launched, but manufacturers don't care about the low end market that much any more.