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Forums - Sales Discussion - The PS4 shipped 110.4m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

The PS4 shipped 110.4m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 120 million 143 12.11%
 
120.0 - 122.4 million 202 17.10%
 
122.5 - 124.9 million 138 11.69%
 
125.0 - 127.4 million 201 17.02%
 
127.5 - 129.9 million 109 9.23%
 
130.0 - 132.4 million 180 15.24%
 
132.5 - 134.9 million 27 2.29%
 
135.0 - 137.4 million 26 2.20%
 
137.5 - 140.0 million 17 1.44%
 
More than 140 million 138 11.69%
 
Total:1,181
Soundwave said:
curl-6 said:

Didn't say otherwise, but 160 million, that's never gonna happen.

If they wanted to do the same thing they did with the PS2, they probably could do it, but they simply don't want to.

The PS1 sold another 30 million after the PS2 launched, the PS2 obviously sold a ton after the PS3 launched, but manufacturers don't care about the low end market that much any more.

PS1 and PS2 sold THAT well in the latter years due to late launches in many countries including major ones. PS3 only sold 6-8m after the PS4 launched, and PS4 is heading towards the same trajectory.



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Farsala said:
Soundwave said:

If they wanted to do the same thing they did with the PS2, they probably could do it, but they simply don't want to.

The PS1 sold another 30 million after the PS2 launched, the PS2 obviously sold a ton after the PS3 launched, but manufacturers don't care about the low end market that much any more.

PS1 and PS2 sold THAT well in the latter years due to late launches in many countries including major ones. PS3 only sold 6-8m after the PS4 launched, and PS4 is heading towards the same trajectory.

The PS1 and PS2 were available in virtually every country not that long after launch, maybe they had "official" launches much later, but like in Brazil "officially" PS2 didn't launch there until 2009 (lol) but the vast majority of systems had been sold there via grey market for years before that. 

Same reason no one in China gives much of a fart over "official console launches" there ... because those systems have been available to anyone who really wanted one years earlier. 

PS3 had to be phased out because it was expensive to keep mass producing with the bespoke CELL processor being stubborn to lower end pricing. 



Soundwave said:
Farsala said:

PS1 and PS2 sold THAT well in the latter years due to late launches in many countries including major ones. PS3 only sold 6-8m after the PS4 launched, and PS4 is heading towards the same trajectory.

The PS1 and PS2 were available in virtually every country not that long after launch, maybe they had "official" launches much later, but like in Brazil "officially" PS2 didn't launch there until 2009 (lol) but the vast majority of systems had been sold there via grey market for years before that. 

Same reason no one in China gives much of a fart over "official console launches" there ... because those systems have been available to anyone who really wanted one years earlier. 

PS3 had to be phased out because it was expensive to keep mass producing with the bespoke CELL processor being stubborn to lower end pricing. 

Well their official launches in those countries lead to fair prices and a boom in sales. The PS4 will be unable to launch again so to speak, that is what the revision is supposed to be for, but again nothing planned from Sony.



Soundwave said:

I don't really see the point in "replacing" consoles. You can sell the PS4 for another 4-5 years at $150-$199 alongside the PS5 with little to no problem.

The reason manufacturers create this artificial "replacement paradox" is to force people to only buy the newer system.

People still want the SNES and NES even today, sneaker manufacturers have no problem selling popular sneaker models that are 20-25 years old as current releases.

There's no reason with digital storefronts nowadays that consoles can't be kept on storeshelves for many, many years after "successive" consoles are released. 

The 2DS XL could be sold for many more years if Nintendo wanted to sell it for $99.99 and made a digital storefront where you could select from hundreds of GBA, DS, and 3DS games for $20-$25 a pop (no retail overhead), but they likely don't want to do that. 

Market saturation, demand and cost of scale.

It comes a point where it isn't profitable to keep selling the console. Even with Vita, Sony only stopped manufacturing and selling a console when it reaches a point of very little sales.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Easy 130-140M.



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

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curl-6 said:
victor83fernandes said:

I don't know what planet you live in, but ps4 is selling about 1 million per month right now, before Last of us 2, before ghosts of tsushima, I really don't understand your logic.

My logic is that two games aren't going to sell 50 million units of a console that's already been out six and a half years and is getting replaced in six months. Those games will give relatively short-lived bumps in the downward trajectory that's only natural of a console nearing the end of its lifecycle.

It doesn't need to, ps4 has already sold over 111 million, its only 39million more for 150million, and I never said 150 million until end of the year, I said lifetime, as in the next few years.



victor83fernandes said:
curl-6 said:

My logic is that two games aren't going to sell 50 million units of a console that's already been out six and a half years and is getting replaced in six months. Those games will give relatively short-lived bumps in the downward trajectory that's only natural of a console nearing the end of its lifecycle.

It doesn't need to, ps4 has already sold over 111 million, its only 39million more for 150million, and I never said 150 million until end of the year, I said lifetime, as in the next few years.

The PS4 is on a downward trend. It went from 17.8m to 13.6m between fiscal years, that's a  23.5% decrease. Even if COVID (and FFVII:R) is helping its numbers right now that's not going to last indefinitely and it's going to end up down YoY come March 2021. Then for 2021 and forward, while I agree it won't completely crash, it's going to have a sharper decline than right now so when you crunch the numbers 150m is very difficult to achieve and 160m is practically impossible.



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Farsala said:
Soundwave said:

If they wanted to do the same thing they did with the PS2, they probably could do it, but they simply don't want to.

The PS1 sold another 30 million after the PS2 launched, the PS2 obviously sold a ton after the PS3 launched, but manufacturers don't care about the low end market that much any more.

PS1 and PS2 sold THAT well in the latter years due to late launches in many countries including major ones. PS3 only sold 6-8m after the PS4 launched, and PS4 is heading towards the same trajectory.

Ps1 sold well after PS2 release because it was $99 (launch price for PS2 was $299).

PS2 sold well after PS3 because it was released in many developing countries AND was $129 (against a $499/599 launch price for PS4).

When PS4 launched at $399 on 2013, the PS3 was $269/299. 

If the price of PS5 is around $499 and Sony want to drop the price of PS4 to $199 (slim)/$299(pro) it could make more than the 8 million units the PS3 sold after PS4 launch.

As for 2020, PS4 is tracking 2 million units more compared to what PS3 was doing in the same time gap back in 2013.

Im not saying that PS4 will sell Ton of millions more, but saying that PS4 is following the same trend of PS3, at the moment at least, is not true. 

But all depends if Sony wants to slash the price of PS4 to $199/299 or not.



victor83fernandes said:
curl-6 said:

My logic is that two games aren't going to sell 50 million units of a console that's already been out six and a half years and is getting replaced in six months. Those games will give relatively short-lived bumps in the downward trajectory that's only natural of a console nearing the end of its lifecycle.

It doesn't need to, ps4 has already sold over 111 million, its only 39million more for 150million, and I never said 150 million until end of the year, I said lifetime, as in the next few years.

You said 160 million originally, which means it'd need to sell another 49 million.



RolStoppable said:

Last week Sony reported that the PS4 had reached 110.4m in life to date shipments by March 31, 2020. This translates to 13.6m for the past twelve months (April 2019 to March 2020), down from 17.8m in the year before. Sony did not provide a PS4 hardware forecast for the current fiscal year ending March 2021, but it's supposed to be announced in August when Sony next reports on their financials.

A continuation of the PS4's decline is expected because the PS5 is still on track for its scheduled launch during the holiday season 2020, but how far can the PS4 go?

...

Bonus question: Hindsight is 20/20. When Microsoft announced their vision for the Xbox One roughly seven years ago, a huge gamer movement formed to push back against Microsoft's policies, such as always online and big restrictions on used game sales. Said movement ultimately succeeded because Microsoft abolished some of their policies before they launched their Xbox One console, demonstrating that gamers do have the power to dictate the direction. However, concurrently the same movement remained silent when Sony announced that they would stop providing the options for free online multiplayer or a paid premium online service, putting everything behind a PS+ subscription. Do you think the collective gaming community should have taken a stand, are you indifferent because you don't play online games anyway, or are you fine with gamers sending the message that it's okay to screw them over as long as it is Sony who is performing the deed?

I'll keep to my original prediction from 2 years ago from a similar thread. https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/237137/how-much-do-you-expect-the-ps4-to-sell-lifetime/1/

I had guessed 123.0m, but had a lazy finger that refused to add the final zero.

As far as the bonus question I'm not sure how to approach it.  I played a lot on PS3 without the subscription, and I played a bunch on the 360 with one.  During the PS4 and Xbox One generation I had both subscriptions and felt like I received more in return than what I put in.  I downloaded many of the free games from both camps and feel like I didn't really pay for a subscription.  I'll do it again next generation and the price of 1 game for a yearly membership doesn't bother me.  Life is too short to worry about such nuances when I have Covid to the right of me and rioters to the left of me and a bunch of geniuses in front me thinking they have all the solutions. 



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.