Forums - Sales Discussion - The PS4 shipped 110.4m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

The PS4 shipped 110.4m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 120 million 136 11.70%
 
120.0 - 122.4 million 198 17.04%
 
122.5 - 124.9 million 135 11.62%
 
125.0 - 127.4 million 201 17.30%
 
127.5 - 129.9 million 109 9.38%
 
130.0 - 132.4 million 178 15.32%
 
132.5 - 134.9 million 27 2.32%
 
135.0 - 137.4 million 26 2.24%
 
137.5 - 140.0 million 16 1.38%
 
More than 140 million 136 11.70%
 
Total:1,162
curl-6 said:
victor83fernandes said:

I don't know what planet you live in, but ps4 is selling about 1 million per month right now, before Last of us 2, before ghosts of tsushima, I really don't understand your logic.

My logic is that two games aren't going to sell 50 million units of a console that's already been out six and a half years and is getting replaced in six months. Those games will give relatively short-lived bumps in the downward trajectory that's only natural of a console nearing the end of its lifecycle.

It doesn't need to, ps4 has already sold over 111 million, its only 39million more for 150million, and I never said 150 million until end of the year, I said lifetime, as in the next few years.



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victor83fernandes said:
curl-6 said:

My logic is that two games aren't going to sell 50 million units of a console that's already been out six and a half years and is getting replaced in six months. Those games will give relatively short-lived bumps in the downward trajectory that's only natural of a console nearing the end of its lifecycle.

It doesn't need to, ps4 has already sold over 111 million, its only 39million more for 150million, and I never said 150 million until end of the year, I said lifetime, as in the next few years.

The PS4 is on a downward trend. It went from 17.8m to 13.6m between fiscal years, that's a  23.5% decrease. Even if COVID (and FFVII:R) is helping its numbers right now that's not going to last indefinitely and it's going to end up down YoY come March 2021. Then for 2021 and forward, while I agree it won't completely crash, it's going to have a sharper decline than right now so when you crunch the numbers 150m is very difficult to achieve and 160m is practically impossible.



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Farsala said:
Soundwave said:

If they wanted to do the same thing they did with the PS2, they probably could do it, but they simply don't want to.

The PS1 sold another 30 million after the PS2 launched, the PS2 obviously sold a ton after the PS3 launched, but manufacturers don't care about the low end market that much any more.

PS1 and PS2 sold THAT well in the latter years due to late launches in many countries including major ones. PS3 only sold 6-8m after the PS4 launched, and PS4 is heading towards the same trajectory.

Ps1 sold well after PS2 release because it was $99 (launch price for PS2 was $299).

PS2 sold well after PS3 because it was released in many developing countries AND was $129 (against a $499/599 launch price for PS4).

When PS4 launched at $399 on 2013, the PS3 was $269/299. 

If the price of PS5 is around $499 and Sony want to drop the price of PS4 to $199 (slim)/$299(pro) it could make more than the 8 million units the PS3 sold after PS4 launch.

As for 2020, PS4 is tracking 2 million units more compared to what PS3 was doing in the same time gap back in 2013.

Im not saying that PS4 will sell Ton of millions more, but saying that PS4 is following the same trend of PS3, at the moment at least, is not true. 

But all depends if Sony wants to slash the price of PS4 to $199/299 or not.



victor83fernandes said:
curl-6 said:

My logic is that two games aren't going to sell 50 million units of a console that's already been out six and a half years and is getting replaced in six months. Those games will give relatively short-lived bumps in the downward trajectory that's only natural of a console nearing the end of its lifecycle.

It doesn't need to, ps4 has already sold over 111 million, its only 39million more for 150million, and I never said 150 million until end of the year, I said lifetime, as in the next few years.

You said 160 million originally, which means it'd need to sell another 49 million.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

RolStoppable said:

Last week Sony reported that the PS4 had reached 110.4m in life to date shipments by March 31, 2020. This translates to 13.6m for the past twelve months (April 2019 to March 2020), down from 17.8m in the year before. Sony did not provide a PS4 hardware forecast for the current fiscal year ending March 2021, but it's supposed to be announced in August when Sony next reports on their financials.

A continuation of the PS4's decline is expected because the PS5 is still on track for its scheduled launch during the holiday season 2020, but how far can the PS4 go?

...

Bonus question: Hindsight is 20/20. When Microsoft announced their vision for the Xbox One roughly seven years ago, a huge gamer movement formed to push back against Microsoft's policies, such as always online and big restrictions on used game sales. Said movement ultimately succeeded because Microsoft abolished some of their policies before they launched their Xbox One console, demonstrating that gamers do have the power to dictate the direction. However, concurrently the same movement remained silent when Sony announced that they would stop providing the options for free online multiplayer or a paid premium online service, putting everything behind a PS+ subscription. Do you think the collective gaming community should have taken a stand, are you indifferent because you don't play online games anyway, or are you fine with gamers sending the message that it's okay to screw them over as long as it is Sony who is performing the deed?

I'll keep to my original prediction from 2 years ago from a similar thread. https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/237137/how-much-do-you-expect-the-ps4-to-sell-lifetime/1/

I had guessed 123.0m, but had a lazy finger that refused to add the final zero.

As far as the bonus question I'm not sure how to approach it.  I played a lot on PS3 without the subscription, and I played a bunch on the 360 with one.  During the PS4 and Xbox One generation I had both subscriptions and felt like I received more in return than what I put in.  I downloaded many of the free games from both camps and feel like I didn't really pay for a subscription.  I'll do it again next generation and the price of 1 game for a yearly membership doesn't bother me.  Life is too short to worry about such nuances when I have Covid to the right of me and rioters to the left of me and a bunch of geniuses in front me thinking they have all the solutions. 



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

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The Last of Us 2 and Ghost of Tsushima will continue to push PS4 sales strongly :)
In addition, the console should continue to be supported for years, so developers and Sony.

Would be cool if we get current sales figures next month =)

Last edited by KazumaKiryu - on 19 June 2020

The Last of Us 2, so beautiful <3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dowuwdxzblM

PS4 is doing quite a bit better so far this year than I expected. I only expected 9 or 10 million this year from it and it looks like it could be real close to the 14 million it did last year. In light of that I voted for 130 million. I had been thinking more like 120-125 million but it is looking much stronger at this point than it looked after last year sales and still being a year out from being replaced. It should be high 110s by the end of this year, close to 125 mil next year, just under 130 the year after, and pass 130 in 2023 as sales finally get down to around 1 million or less a year. I'm assuming Sony will still be selling it in some stores for like 5 more years so I could see it being low 130 million.



kazuyamishima said:
TruckOSaurus said:
I'll stick with my early year estimate of about 130m. I'd be curious to hear from the "more than 140m" crowd to see how they get to that number.

By the end of this year it will be around 118 million units sold o customer.

End of March around 120 million units. Even PS3 sold around 11 million units after PS4 released.

So that puts PS4 at 130m but not 140m...



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 11m, XB1 4m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, 9m PS4 and 3m XB1, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.