Forums - Sales Discussion - The PS4 shipped 110.4m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

The PS4 shipped 110.4m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 120 million 136 11.70%
 
120.0 - 122.4 million 198 17.04%
 
122.5 - 124.9 million 135 11.62%
 
125.0 - 127.4 million 201 17.30%
 
127.5 - 129.9 million 109 9.38%
 
130.0 - 132.4 million 178 15.32%
 
132.5 - 134.9 million 27 2.32%
 
135.0 - 137.4 million 26 2.24%
 
137.5 - 140.0 million 16 1.38%
 
More than 140 million 136 11.70%
 
Total:1,162

I think 130 is the absolute limit of what Sony can get out of the PS4. But if we take a step back and look at what an achievement just the current 110 million actually is. Released at a time when people thought console gaming was going to die at the hand of mobile gaming, and now we have the 2nd biggest selling home console of all time.

Even during the rise of PS4, many people doubted it could surpass the Wii. It's not just done that, it's blown it out the water. If the war between Sony and Microsoft continues on the way it's going; people will look at this generation as the period of time that lead to Microsoft pulling out of the home console space.



Sony want to make money by selling art, Nintendo want to make money by selling fun, Microsoft want to make money.

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only777 said:
I think 130 is the absolute limit of what Sony can get out of the PS4. But if we take a step back and look at what an achievement just the current 110 million actually is. Released at a time when people thought console gaming was going to die at the hand of mobile gaming, and now we have the 2nd biggest selling home console of all time.

Even during the rise of PS4, many people doubted it could surpass the Wii. It's not just done that, it's blown it out the water. If the war between Sony and Microsoft continues on the way it's going; people will look at this generation as the period of time that lead to Microsoft pulling out of the home console space.

In SW PS4 will break PS2 record (even if it had a lot more budget games due to PSN) and with the help of PS+ PS4 alone probably profited more than all other systems sony released combined (even if we take out all the years with loss of PS3).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

I've been predicting 130-140 million since 2018 and I'm still confident in that number

Last edited by curl-6 - on 01 June 2020

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

It will reach the number I have said months ago, 160 million, no question about it,



victor83fernandes said:

It will reach the number I have said months ago, 160 million, no question about it,

That seems pretty far-fetched.

How will it sell another 50 million from here on out when it's likely less than 6 months away from being replaced?



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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curl-6 said:
victor83fernandes said:

It will reach the number I have said months ago, 160 million, no question about it,

That seems pretty far-fetched.

How will it sell another 50 million from here on out when it's likely less than 6 months away from being replaced?

Considering some reasons I seem people throw for Sony sales numbers the answer would be "they will just keep selling the console until it reaches 160M in 30 years"



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

curl-6 said:
victor83fernandes said:

It will reach the number I have said months ago, 160 million, no question about it,

That seems pretty far-fetched.

How will it sell another 50 million from here on out when it's likely less than 6 months away from being replaced?

The same way the ps2 did, many replacement consoles for broken consoles, and a proper price drop to reach many poorer countries, I know a lot of people back in Portugal and Brasil that are still waiting for a huge price drop both on ps4 and second hand games, people who can't afford to pay more than 150 euros

The ps5 will cost 500 euros, maybe more, 1 game will cost 70 euros, thats 570 euros, the ps4 with one game for 150 euros seems like a better deal for poor people who don't even have a 4K TV.

And then there's a lot of PC and Xbox people who might get one just for Last of us 2, thats going to be the biggest game launch of the year by far, no point in paying more than triple the money just to play one game.

Last edited by victor83fernandes - on 02 June 2020

victor83fernandes said:
curl-6 said:

That seems pretty far-fetched.

How will it sell another 50 million from here on out when it's likely less than 6 months away from being replaced?

The same way the ps2 did, many replacement consoles for broken consoles, and a proper price drop to reach many poorer countries, I know a lot of people back in Portugal and Brasil that are still waiting for a huge price drop both on ps4 and second hand games, people who can't afford to pay more than 150 euros

PS4 isn't breaking and needing replacement at anywhere near the rate the PS2 did, PS4 already released in the emerging markets that PS2 didn't get around to until much later, and Sony holding $300 this long suggests they do not plan aggressive price cuts.

And one game this late in a console's lifecycle won't alter its entire trajectory.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 02 June 2020

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
victor83fernandes said:

The same way the ps2 did, many replacement consoles for broken consoles, and a proper price drop to reach many poorer countries, I know a lot of people back in Portugal and Brasil that are still waiting for a huge price drop both on ps4 and second hand games, people who can't afford to pay more than 150 euros

PS4 isn't breaking and needing replacement at anywhere near the rate the PS2 did, PS4 already released in the emerging markets that PS2 didn't get around to until much later, and Sony holding $300 this long suggests they do not plan aggressive price cuts.

 You need to travel more, back in Portugal I barely know anyone with a ps4, many people are buying ps3 right now for the very cheap games and free online. 

Sony can and will drop the price, I guarantee you that, I don't know what you are on but 300? I've seen ps4 slim for less than 200 already several times.

You must be naive to think ps4 doesn't break, I had one just a few months old that was having graphical glitches, many people complain their disc drive doesn't work, or hdmi failures, everything breaks, as long as its electronics.

You don't think one game can affect sales? Do you want to bet? Let's wait and see sales of the ps4 when last of us 2 drops. The ps4 is guaranteed to sell 7 million until christmas. Many parents can't afford 570dollars gifts for their kids.

One more thing, I have been following gaming for 30 years, I know Sony, I am not sure the ps5 will release this year in Europe, USA yeah for sure, Europe, maybe February/March, also there won't be enough stock anyway, Sony will not have enough SSD to make more consoles, a lot of people will be looking to find one until next year.

Last edited by victor83fernandes - on 02 June 2020

victor83fernandes said:
curl-6 said:

PS4 isn't breaking and needing replacement at anywhere near the rate the PS2 did, PS4 already released in the emerging markets that PS2 didn't get around to until much later, and Sony holding $300 this long suggests they do not plan aggressive price cuts.

 You need to travel more, back in Portugal I barely know anyone with a ps4, many people are buying ps3 right now for the very cheap games and free online. 

Sony can and will drop the price, I guarantee you that, I don't know what you are on but 300? I've seen ps4 slim for less than 200 already several times.

You must be naive to think ps4 doesn't break, I had one just a few months old that was having graphical glitches, many people complain their disc drive doesn't work, or hdmi failures, everything breaks, as long as its electronics.

Your firsthand experiences aren't a big enough piece of the global picture to be relevant. 

And PS4s are far more reliable than PS2s, the latter were notorious for the disc drive dying.

Sony have said the want to move people from PS4 to PS5 faster than previous generational transitions, so clearly pushing for the highest lifetime PS4 sales is not their plan.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.