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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 16, 2020 (Apr 13 - Apr 19)

The same weekly ales number in NA/EU/JAP for 3DS, in 2020...
WTH?
Japan is where 3DS is saturated the most and that had happened a year earlier than in NA/EU...

Hmmmm...
Lower (remaining )  stock in NA/EU?

Last edited by tak13 - on 23 April 2020

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Metallox said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

A couple of months ago I really thought FF7 and Animal Crossing were games of similar sales caliber.  I thought sales were going to be close with Animal Crossing having a bit of an advantage.  According to Wikipedia, "by the end of 2005, [Final Fantasy 7] had sold 9.8 million copies worldwide, including 4 million sales in Japan and 5.8 million sales abroad in North America and Europe."  And that was on the PS1 alone.  The best selling Animal Crossing previously was Wild World, and VGChartz has it sold 5.3m in Japan and 12.1m worldwide.  Considering FF7 had been released on other platforms I really saw these games as close in sales.

Different games, different circumstances, different scenarios. VII Remake was released in a time where interest in Final Fantasy in general has dropped in Japan, whereas Animal Crossing got bigger after New Leaf. New Horizons also resembles the games that are more along the current tastes of Japanese gaming, and it also released on a machine that has been huge for Nintendo so far. 

I think it doesn't matter if VII was insanely popular in its time. If VII Remake doesn't appeal to the current tastes, which it clearly doesn't, it will never have a comparable sales growth to Animal Crossing. 

Let's go back a couple of months ago before either game was released.  What indication would you have that Animal Crossing got bigger after New Leaf?  Sales from Wild World to New Leaf went down.

Also, what do you mean by changing tastes?  The only obvious change in taste for Japan is the growth of handhelds and the shrinking of home consoles.



JWeinCom said:
Metallox said:

Different games, different circumstances, different scenarios. VII Remake was released in a time where interest in Final Fantasy in general has dropped in Japan, whereas Animal Crossing got bigger after New Leaf. New Horizons also resembles the games that are more along the current tastes of Japanese gaming, and it also released on a machine that has been huge for Nintendo so far. 

I think it doesn't matter if VII was insanely popular in its time. If VII Remake doesn't appeal to the current tastes, which it clearly doesn't, it will never have a comparable sales growth to Animal Crossing. 

Saying it doesn't appeal to current tastes is a bit of an over statement.  Just doesn't appeal to current tastes as well as Animal Crossing does.

Alright, that sounds fairer to me. 



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

The_Liquid_Laser said:
Metallox said:

Different games, different circumstances, different scenarios. VII Remake was released in a time where interest in Final Fantasy in general has dropped in Japan, whereas Animal Crossing got bigger after New Leaf. New Horizons also resembles the games that are more along the current tastes of Japanese gaming, and it also released on a machine that has been huge for Nintendo so far. 

I think it doesn't matter if VII was insanely popular in its time. If VII Remake doesn't appeal to the current tastes, which it clearly doesn't, it will never have a comparable sales growth to Animal Crossing. 

Let's go back a couple of months ago before either game was released.  What indication would you have that Animal Crossing got bigger after New Leaf?  Sales from Wild World to New Leaf went down.

Also, what do you mean by changing tastes?  The only obvious change in taste for Japan is the growth of handhelds and the shrinking of home consoles.

Sales from Wild World to New Leaf actually went up.  Shipment figures from Nintendo, which include digital, have the game at 12.5 million to about 12.1 for Wild World, and New Leaf is actually still selling, at least in Japan.  This is despite the overall trend of games declining from DS to 3DS, which indicates that the franchise is on the rise.  Meanwhile, basically every major Nintendo franchise (Zelda, 3D Mario, Mario Party, Mario Kart, Pokemon, Smash) are outperforming 3DS versions, mostly by really wide margin.  So, there was plenty of reason to think that New Horizons would outperform New Leaf.



JWeinCom said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

A couple of months ago I really thought FF7 and Animal Crossing were games of similar sales caliber.  I thought sales were going to be close with Animal Crossing having a bit of an advantage.  According to Wikipedia, "by the end of 2005, [Final Fantasy 7] had sold 9.8 million copies worldwide, including 4 million sales in Japan and 5.8 million sales abroad in North America and Europe."  And that was on the PS1 alone.  The best selling Animal Crossing previously was Wild World, and VGChartz has it sold 5.3m in Japan and 12.1m worldwide.  Considering FF7 had been released on other platforms I really saw these games as close in sales.

This is not close.  Not by a long shot.  At this point, FF7R would do well to sell half of what New Horizons does in Japan.  I doubt it will even do that.  I doubt it will even sell a fourth of what New Horizons does in Japan.  Animal Crossing is already so far ahead with only a -2% WoW drop while FF7R has a -90% drop.  There is no catching up.  One might even think that this virus would make it easier to play a home console game, since so many people are stuck at home.  It helps but not much.  FF7 and Animal Crossing are not close anymore, at least not in Japan.  New Horizons is shooting ahead while FF7R is falling behind.

It was never going to be that close, especially in Japan.  Trying to predict sales based on the original which launched over two decades ago doesn't work.  Much different market these days. In particular the Final Fantasy franchise is not nearly as big as it used to be, while the PS4's market is significantly smaller than PS1's.

Meanwhile, Switch games have generally been selling much higher than than games launched on the 3DS, and New Leaf's official numbers I think are about 12 million from Nintendo... and it's still actually selling a bit.  5.75 million of those are in Japan, so even if New Horizons just held that number and didn't beat New Leaf it would comfortably beat FFVII.

Ten million was basically the maximum for FFVII and the minimum for Animal Crossing.  JRPG is just a far smaller market.  

“JRPG is a smaller market”

DQ: am I a joke to you?



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TheBraveGallade said:
JWeinCom said:

It was never going to be that close, especially in Japan.  Trying to predict sales based on the original which launched over two decades ago doesn't work.  Much different market these days. In particular the Final Fantasy franchise is not nearly as big as it used to be, while the PS4's market is significantly smaller than PS1's.

Meanwhile, Switch games have generally been selling much higher than than games launched on the 3DS, and New Leaf's official numbers I think are about 12 million from Nintendo... and it's still actually selling a bit.  5.75 million of those are in Japan, so even if New Horizons just held that number and didn't beat New Leaf it would comfortably beat FFVII.

Ten million was basically the maximum for FFVII and the minimum for Animal Crossing.  JRPG is just a far smaller market.  

“JRPG is a smaller market”

DQ: am I a joke to you?

DQ IX sales- 5.79 (Best in Franchise)

Animal Crossing New Leaf Sales-  12 million.

Smaller market.



Goddamn Animal Crossing!



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

JWeinCom said:
src said:

10 million is not the maximum for FF7. Its did 3.5 million in 3 days, outpacing or being close to Spiderman and God of War.

FF7 would be at 10 million+ on PS4 alone within a year. Let alone PS5/PC/XBX. FF7R has the potential to do 15 million - 20 million.

Already been through this.  Those games got a boost of several million from being bundled that FF7 is not likely to get.  Not an apt comparison.  It would need a significantly higher baseline to compete with those games.  Considering Spiderman's week 2 in Japan was higher than FF7 is not a good look shortages or no.

No you have not.

Your bundle theory is evidently debunked from official data. All best selling games get bundles. Considering FF7 just became one of the biggest launches in Playstation exclusive history there is no doubt it will get future bundles.

Lmao at ignoring a 96% sell through because it doesn't fit with your fantasy.

Wyrdness said:
src said:

10 million is not the maximum for FF7. Its did 3.5 million in 3 days, outpacing or being close to Spiderman and God of War.

FF7 would be at 10 million+ on PS4 alone within a year. Let alone PS5/PC/XBX. FF7R has the potential to do 15 million - 20 million.

10m for FFVIIR is looking a bit harder at this point for a start it's not bundled like those games and looking at the second week performance its looking like 10m could be missed altogether for one the game had a 90% drop in Japan in week 2 while it also dropped in places like the UK. FFXV did 8m but was on multiple platforms to achieve that I doubt VIIR will hit 10m on PS4 alone.

You're completely wrong.

FF7R's launch is massively ahead of FFXV. FFXV shipped 6 million in two months. FF7R has pretty much sold 3.5 million in 3 days.

Funny you mention Japan, when in FF7R has already outsold FFXV in two weeks lol



src said:
JWeinCom said:

Already been through this.  Those games got a boost of several million from being bundled that FF7 is not likely to get.  Not an apt comparison.  It would need a significantly higher baseline to compete with those games.  Considering Spiderman's week 2 in Japan was higher than FF7 is not a good look shortages or no.

No you have not.

Your bundle theory is evidently debunked from official data. All best selling games get bundles. Considering FF7 just became one of the biggest launches in Playstation exclusive history there is no doubt it will get future bundles.

Lmao at ignoring a 96% sell through because it doesn't fit with your fantasy.

Wyrdness said:

10m for FFVIIR is looking a bit harder at this point for a start it's not bundled like those games and looking at the second week performance its looking like 10m could be missed altogether for one the game had a 90% drop in Japan in week 2 while it also dropped in places like the UK. FFXV did 8m but was on multiple platforms to achieve that I doubt VIIR will hit 10m on PS4 alone.

You're completely wrong.

FF7R's launch is massively ahead of FFXV. FFXV shipped 6 million in two months. FF7R has pretty much sold 3.5 million in 3 days.

Funny you mention Japan, when in FF7R has already outsold FFXV in two weeks lol

There actually is a lot of doubt it will get a bundle, because not all best selling games do, at least not at the level of Uncharter 4 or GOW.

It's easier for Sony to bundle their own games, as they're willing to sacrifice sales of the individual games to move hardware.  Square on the other hand has much less interest in moving PS4 hardware, so depending on what Sony is offering, they might not accept.  It's much more cost efficient for Sony to bundle their own games, so unless they feel bundling a third party game is going to be a much bigger boost to sales then a first party game, they're going to go with the first party software.  And, with the PS4 launching this holiday, Sony doesn't really have as strong of an incentive to try to push PS4 hardware as hard anyway, so it's even less likely that they'll invest in a third party bundle rather than packing in some greatest hit games.

Generally non first party games that have been bundled in the west (not including limited edition bundles which don't have much effect on overall sales since they are limited and targeted towards people who would have bought the game anyway) have been games that launched much better than FF7, such as Red Dead 2 (4.6 million physical only), Fifa (4.3 million physical only for 18), and Call of Duty (3.7 physical only for WWII and 3.6 physical only for BLOPS 3). FFVII's launch is not as big as those.  And the games being bundled are from franchises that have a much better sales history, and had by that point proven to have strong legs.  It's not like Sony bases the decision on first week sales alone.  Also, the bundles mainly come from EA, Activision, and Take 2, who likely have a deal with Sony.

So, basically, bundling a game is a business decision that is influenced by a lot of factors.  It's not like it's automatic when you hit a certain number in your first week.  Comparing to other games that have been bundled, and considering the timing, it seems unlikely.  And even if it is bundled, it's getting bundled at a time when PS4 hardware sales are dwindling, as opposed to games like Uncharted 4 which got bundles at the peak, which are going to do a lot more for sales.  

Dunno why you think I fantasize about FF7 not selling as well as Uncharted 4 or GOW.  I actually like this game a lot better than those, and I assure you my fantasies are much grander than a game that I actually like not selling as well as other games.  I have no personal stake in this, but the facts are what they are.

Last edited by JWeinCom - on 23 April 2020

At this point, Animal Crossing's sales potential are well beyond anything Final Fantasy has or will ever hope to achieve. New Horizons is well on its way to numbers and heights in Japan that we haven't seen since Pokemon's peak in the late 90s.

Let's use New Leaf as a comparison. According to this site, after 2013, New Leaf sales in Japan were at 3,761,766 units after 61 weeks on the market.

New Horizons is at 3,611,246 units after just 5 weeks........ Holy Shit...
And that's not counting digital, which is all but guaranteed to favor the Switch, which would mean New Horizons' overall totals in those 5 weeks may likely have already surpassed New Leaf's overall totals in 61 weeks.

.... Jesus H. Christ

Bottom Line, there's absolutely no telling how high New Horizons can go or where its ceiling is. This may be the most interesting of all the Switch games to watch moving forward.