no.... unless it start hitting 200k weekly numbers and by then that is around 10 mil or maybe 14-16 mil if they have yearly good holiday numbers... that would still be around 6-7 years.... i think we will get a replacement before that

It depends on when Nintendo offers a successor. In the worst case (for Switch sales) that would be 2022. Switch should have 70+M by the end of this year. If we expect that this is Switch's peak year, then we should see a bit less next year (18M), 12M in 2022 and another 10M until end of life, so there's now way it can sell below 110M. If it should sell below 110M, sales need to drop faster than Wii, which is unlikely because of the hyprid system nature.

I'm not sure if Switch peaks this year, so I voted 120M, which is still pretty pessimistic imo. It currently sells faster than PS4 and legs after the launch of a successor should be fine, because of the hyprid system and room for price cuts.

Uhm... what?

bold: You are aware that the Switch just dropped below 200k because of shortages, right? Without those, Switch normally sells more around 250k weekly, actually. Just have a look here for weekly sales this and last year: Click 

italic: You are aware that the Switch sold at least those 14-16M Every single year, right?

underlined: Dude, we just had a discussion how the Switch will not be replaced early, and that the 3DS already didn't

true! damn nsw is a beast and i hate the new weely graph... who designed that?

but how many more years would switch will sell 14-16 m/year though?

yeah 3ds didnt get replaced and it is not selling well anyways... didn't even hit 100 million

when do you think nsw will hit 150m?

Switch will probably hit ~20M this FY and 70M shipped by the end of the year. It didn't have a pricecut yet, so there's no reason sales would slow anytime soon.

3DS needed a massive pricecut to even take off the ground, that's why it didn't reach nearly as high as the DS did and why sales crashed down after the first 2 years, something that ain't happening with the Switch.

If Switch will reach 150M, then probably only by 2025 or even later, when the successor is already out. But like with the 3DS, I really doubt Nintendo will cut support for the Switch when the new console comes out, just successively slow it down over the years until it gets phased down when the successor is already selling for a couple years.

i wish they would do switch pro or something to push it and the regular swtiches will be cheaper... as long as it is effective... like 1080p oled or something with higher frame rate.... :P

New 3ds didnt feel right though

The V2 model increased power by ~40%.

If a V3 model increases the power by another 40-50% then you have your Pro model.

Just wanted to point out, if they shipped 3mil for last quarter to end the FY then it would be at 55.5mil. If they target roughly 22mil then they will have shipped by years end closer to 75mil ;P

lol pro =/= battery life.... even apple makes more effort than that 

More power = Pro