Mnementh said:
Jaicee said:
*shrugs* I give you stats, you give me hunches.
As to the Lincoln Project's future in a post-Trump America, I'll fight that battle when it comes and take notes for now. Right now, I'm in an "enemy of my enemy is my friend" kind of mood because my first, second, and third political priorities right now are all the defeat of this president. Trump is the worst president of my lifetime by a wide margin. I'm not nearly as worried about another war as I am about covid-19 right now because in just five months the latter has already claimed more American lives than most of our wars (and we've fought a lot) have combined. I'm also more concerned about our current relationship to foreign police states and whether we're still fundamentally aligned with the forces of democracy in international affairs than I am about imperialistic excesses that may be had in the name of advancing democracy abroad. In short, my concerns are very basic ones right now. More basic than my disagreements with the Reaganists (which yes, are many).
|
Well, I gave you a study as well, that must count a bit more than a hunch. 
As towards Trump: fair enough. I also worry about post-Trump (I am old enough to remember both George Bush presidencies, especially the son was considered back then the worst president of all times. But fair enough. Trump is bad news, I agree. I still think about what will come after.
|
If Trump loses, especially if he loses big, I think the Republicans are going to turn on him savagely.
If Trumpism can't win the election, then the republican party is in deep trouble. Particularly with the shifting demographics in the southwest. If Texas and Arizona continue shifting in the direction they've been going, then the party is in an existential crisis. If Trump's 2016 performance in the rust belt was an anomaly (which seems like it may be the case) and Texas can't be relied on, then the party has no path to success on a national level.
In that event, they would desperately need to pivot to the center. And Trump would be an obstacle. I don't believe the republicans would want Trump to run in 2024. If he were in the primary though, he would drag the whole field to the right. If he loses, he might run anyway, which would all but ensure a democratic victory.
Even if he stayed out of the races, he's such a polarizing figure that he would be an anchor around the party's neck. If the 2024 candidate (let's say someone like Marco Rubio) tried to distance themselves from him, he'd lash out. And Trump would effectively serve as a boogeyman for the Democrats if Trump was a vocal supporter for the next candidate. And, honestly, if Trump loses, would it surprise you if he blamed everyone but himself, including the republican party in general?
That puts the party in an odd position. They need to appeal to Trump voters, but Trump's support would galvanize Democrats and possibly repel moderates. Then, what can the party do?
The only thing they could do is try their best to completely destroy him. Spend the first two years of the Biden presidency completely dismantling him, scapegoat him, blame him for the party's performance (although maybe that's not quite scapegoating), and effectively beat him into silence. Do everything they can to make sure he's out of the public eye by the next election, and try to "rebrand" the party in 2024.
Calling it now, if Biden wins with something like 315 or more, then Biden will be #3 on the republican hit list. #2 will be Kamala Harris. #1 will be Donald Trump.