melbye said:
Let the downplaying begin
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There are about 8 minutes to this video. I watched one minute, which had about five callers. For argument's sake, we'll say the remaining seven minutes had twice as many callers. That means 75 voters called into C-Span.
The first problem obviously is that the callers are self identifying, and there's no way to verify that. I actually think I'm registered as a Republican atm, because my views were quite different when I was younger, and the party was quite different, and I'd never changed it. So, I could call in and say I'm a registered Republican who switched parties, even though I haven't really identified as a Republican for about 16 years.
The second problem is that what I said above is a lie. I indeed did register as a Republican when I turned 18, but I never actually voted Republican, and was decidedly not a republican by the time I was 19. I don't know when exactly I changed my registration, but I most definitely did at some point, since when I ordered by mail in ballot they had me listed as a Democrat. Still, I was tempted to exaggerate and say I was still registered as a Republican, because it would be better for my case, and it's at least a half truth. Are these people on the phone lying? I can't say. But it's not unheard of for people to be dishonest in trying to prove a point.
Third problem is that we have no basis for comparison. How many people called in to say they loved the convention? Did the call screeners particularly search for specific view points to air (Democratic supporter switching makes for much better TV than "Democrat loves Democratic convention" or "republican hates Democratic convention")? How many Republicans called to say they switched over to the Democrats? How many Democrats called in during the Republican convention to say they were switching to support? Without knowing these things, we really can't assess the overall picture.
And lastly, even if we assume that everyone is honestly representing themselves here, the big question is, so what? We have about 75 people. That's not enough data to make a conclusion. On the other hand, all the data we have available suggests that more voters are shifting towards the Democrats. The biggest one being the 2018 election which was a 9 point swing in favor of Democrats since 2016. Polls consistently show Biden doing far better than Hilary Clinton had been doing. Generic ballot if far better for Democrats than in 2016 and is consistent with 2018.
You have cleverly pre-dismissed any criticism as "downplaying". So good job on that. But what you've provided is a piece of anecdotal evidence, based on a teensy weensy completely non-random sample. Simply, not anything upon which a reasonable conclusion about overall trends can be reached.
Last edited by JWeinCom - on 29 August 2020