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Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

EnricoPallazzo said:
Raven said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/27/us/elections/pelosi-says-biden-should-not-debate-trump-biden-disagrees.html

'Mr. Biden said on Thursday that not only would he debate Mr. Trump, he would fact-check him. “I’m going to be a fact-checker on the floor while I’m debating him,” Mr. Biden told MSNBC, adding that the president had a “somewhat pathological tendency not to tell the truth.”'

--

Nancy Pelosi does not control when and where Presidential debates are held, she gave an opinion. You both could have done this basic research in about 2 minutes or less, yet you both decided to run with this exaggeration. I'm tired of trying to nicely nudge people with an accurate account of the situation, you both have your own responsibility to make sure you're not looking like fools.

Actually you look like a fool trying to put words in my mouth. I never said Biden himself said he wouldnt debate. I dont need to fact check something I didnt say. Maybe you didnt read properly but I said Nancy said that. 

And again, I really hope there is a series of debates as this is really important for democracy, and if questions are handed prior to the debate they hand it to both parties.

You used her words to lend credibility to the idea that debates may not happen, it's explicitly stated in your post above. She has no power to follow through on her words, which again.. basic research would have revealed.



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Raven said:
EnricoPallazzo said:

Actually you look like a fool trying to put words in my mouth. I never said Biden himself said he wouldnt debate. I dont need to fact check something I didnt say. Maybe you didnt read properly but I said Nancy said that. 

And again, I really hope there is a series of debates as this is really important for democracy, and if questions are handed prior to the debate they hand it to both parties.

You used her words to lend credibility to the idea that debates may not happen, it's explicitly stated in your post above. She has no power to follow through on her words, which again.. basic research would have revealed.

Nope I didnt do any of it, again, you putting words in my mouth or just reading too much into other people's words.

Any idiot knows she has no power to decide if a debate will happen or not, that would be pretty stupid. I recommend you stick to what people say/write instead of project your own ideas into other people.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
JWeinCom said:

If Trump loses, especially if he loses big, I think the Republicans are going to turn on him savagely.

If Trumpism can't win the election, then the republican party is in deep trouble. Particularly with the shifting demographics in the southwest. If Texas and Arizona continue shifting in the direction they've been going, then the party is in an existential crisis. If Trump's 2016 performance in the rust belt was an anomaly (which seems like it may be the case) and Texas can't be relied on, then the party has no path to success on a national level.

In that event, they would desperately need to pivot to the center. And Trump would be an obstacle. I don't believe the republicans would want Trump to run in 2024. If he were in the primary though, he would drag the whole field to the right. If he loses, he might run anyway, which would all but ensure a democratic victory. 

Even if he stayed out of the races, he's such a polarizing figure that he would be an anchor around the party's neck. If the 2024 candidate (let's say someone like Marco Rubio) tried to distance themselves from him, he'd lash out. And Trump would effectively serve as a boogeyman for the Democrats if Trump was a vocal supporter for the next candidate. And, honestly, if Trump loses, would it surprise you if he blamed everyone but himself, including the republican party in general? 

That puts the party in an odd position. They need to appeal to Trump voters, but Trump's support would galvanize Democrats and possibly repel moderates. Then, what can the party do?

The only thing they could do is try their best to completely destroy him. Spend the first two years of the Biden presidency completely dismantling him, scapegoat him, blame him for the party's performance (although maybe that's not quite scapegoating), and effectively beat him into silence. Do everything they can to make sure he's out of the public eye by the next election, and try to "rebrand" the party in 2024.

Calling it now, if Biden wins with something like 315 or more, then Biden will be #3 on the republican hit list. #2 will be Kamala Harris. #1 will be Donald Trump.

Will they, though? Or will they just blame the economy/Coronavirus/mail-in voting/whatever instead? I'm fairly sure it's the latter, blaming something else for their failure like they always do.

And it wouldn't be the first time, either. They didn't change course after Obama crushed McCain in 2008. In fact, they doubled down on their core tenants and pushed them further to the right.

I'm also fairly sure that in 2024 either Ivanka, Jared Kushner or Trump Jr. will run for office. How they will fare is another question, though.

Different situation.

Obama won by a huge margin, but that wasn't necessarily due to McCain. McCain was still a relatively well liked candidate. Obama was a just a very popular candidate, combined with being the first black person running for president for a major party, and drew high turnout. People were showing up for Obama. The republicans, somewhat justifiably, believed that Obama could not capture the same enthusiasm in 2012, and that they could win by turning out more of their base, which meant going further right. 

Nobody in 2012 was going to vote against Romney because McCain endorsed him. And McCain, despite what his campaign may have told you, was not a "maverick". There was no risk of him going rogue and acting against the wishes of the party. If McCain was truly a massive liability he would have faded out of the political field.

If Biden wins, it is not because Biden is an overwhelmingly popular candidate, because he's simply not. It would be because they are voting against Trump. If Biden wins by the margins he's currently prevented, then the Democrats would love to run against him again in 24, either directly or by treating whatever candidate they do put up (which would be easy if one of his kids run) as a Trump proxy. 



EnricoPallazzo said:
So Nanci said she thinks there should be any debate between trump and biden. I wonder why. I have been saying this for a while I have serious doubts there will be debates, which would be shameful.

EnricoPallazzo said:
Raven said:

You used her words to lend credibility to the idea that debates may not happen, it's explicitly stated in your post above. She has no power to follow through on her words, which again.. basic research would have revealed.

Nope I didnt do any of it, again, you putting words in my mouth or just reading too much into other people's words.

Any idiot knows she has no power to decide if a debate will happen or not, that would be pretty stupid. I recommend you stick to what people say/write instead of project your own ideas into other people.

I am. Don't make it so easy for me next time then.



Raven said:
EnricoPallazzo said:
So Nanci said she thinks there should be any debate between trump and biden. I wonder why. I have been saying this for a while I have serious doubts there will be debates, which would be shameful.

EnricoPallazzo said:

Nope I didnt do any of it, again, you putting words in my mouth or just reading too much into other people's words.

Any idiot knows she has no power to decide if a debate will happen or not, that would be pretty stupid. I recommend you stick to what people say/write instead of project your own ideas into other people.

I am. Don't make it so easy for me next time then.

Whatever makes you fell good about yourself dude



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Let the downplaying begin



melbye said:

Let the downplaying begin

I'll start:

This is the stupidest metric I've ever heard of. A bunch of people who say they were totally democrats before call into CSPAN. 

I'm as worried at this as I am about Dave Rubin and Tim Pool "leaving the left". 

Edit: Oh god I just thought about it and this is going to be brought up by that POS POTUS the next time he's asked about corona virus or some other actual question. This and all the boats in Florida. 



...

Raven said:
KLXVER said:

You really wonder why? Trump would destroy the poor man. 

EnricoPallazzo said:

Yes I know, biden is almost senile at this point and most likely would say something nonsense luke he is running for senate of something. Trump would just be trump and be the bully he usually is. Unless biden is using a teleprompter or have access to the questions before the debate which is something that definitely didnt happen in 2016. 

In the end I believe a live debate wouldnt change things but it would be a shame if there is not at least one debate anyway.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/27/us/elections/pelosi-says-biden-should-not-debate-trump-biden-disagrees.html

'Mr. Biden said on Thursday that not only would he debate Mr. Trump, he would fact-check him. “I’m going to be a fact-checker on the floor while I’m debating him,” Mr. Biden told MSNBC, adding that the president had a “somewhat pathological tendency not to tell the truth.”'

--

Nancy Pelosi does not control when and where Presidential debates are held, she gave an opinion. You both could have done this basic research in about 2 minutes or less, yet you both decided to run with this exaggeration. I'm tired of trying to nicely nudge people with an accurate account of the situation, you both have your own responsibility to make sure you're not looking like fools.

I know he said he would debate him. Thats not what we were talking about. We were talking about why Pelosi dont want him to debate Trump. She says its because they dont want to legitimize him or whatever the poor excuse was.



Trump won't like this. Then again he'll probably just gaslight.



melbye said:

Let the downplaying begin

There are about 8 minutes to this video. I watched one minute, which had about five callers. For argument's sake, we'll say the remaining seven minutes had twice as many callers. That means 75 voters called into C-Span.

The first problem obviously is that the callers are self identifying, and there's no way to verify that. I actually think I'm registered as a Republican atm, because my views were quite different when I was younger, and the party was quite different, and I'd never changed it. So, I could call in and say I'm a registered Republican who switched parties, even though I haven't really identified as a Republican for about 16 years.

The second problem is that what I said above is a lie. I indeed did register as a Republican when I turned 18, but I never actually voted Republican, and was decidedly not a republican by the time I was 19. I don't know when exactly I changed my registration, but I most definitely did at some point, since when I ordered by mail in ballot they had me listed as a Democrat. Still, I was tempted to exaggerate and say I was still registered as a Republican, because it would be better for my case, and it's at least a half truth. Are these people on the phone lying? I can't say. But it's not unheard of for people to be dishonest in trying to prove a point.

Third problem is that we have no basis for comparison. How many people called in to say they loved the convention? Did the call screeners particularly search for specific view points to air (Democratic supporter switching makes for much better TV than "Democrat loves Democratic convention" or "republican hates Democratic convention")? How many Republicans called to say they switched over to the Democrats? How many Democrats called in during the Republican convention to say they were switching to support? Without knowing these things, we really can't assess the overall picture.

And lastly, even if we assume that everyone is honestly representing themselves here, the big question is, so what? We have about 75 people. That's not enough data to make a conclusion. On the other hand, all the data we have available suggests that more voters are shifting towards the Democrats. The biggest one being the 2018 election which was a 9 point swing in favor of Democrats since 2016. Polls consistently show Biden doing far better than Hilary Clinton had been doing. Generic ballot if far better for Democrats than in 2016 and is consistent with 2018.

You have cleverly pre-dismissed any criticism as "downplaying". So good job on that. But what you've provided is a piece of anecdotal evidence, based on a teensy weensy completely non-random sample. Simply, not anything upon which a reasonable conclusion about overall trends can be reached.

Last edited by JWeinCom - on 29 August 2020