It is true in past that the winner writes the history but that was before when information could be controlled only by the winner.  Its very hard to control the information today but it is still easy to manipulate it.  The thing is, if an election can be stolen like this then we have serious problems with our system.  This needs to play out and I want the President to use every last trick up his sleeve to accomplish it.  I am not concerned about people like padib who believe Trump is the savior or something like that, I have many of them on my feed in facebook so his line of thinking I see a lot.  As a nation, we do need to face these type of challenges to the system and it will decide how America goes from here on out.  It will happen sooner or later, I rather it happen sooner.  I consider President Trump not as a catalyst but a symptom.  Meaning that this was already there but was ignored until he showed up, now we need to see how our system handles it.

No, No, No JWeinCom, you cannot answer for padib, we need him to bring his argument to the table.  I am always interested how my friends who support this position for Trump seem to easily ignore any and all wrong doing by the President.  I got one friend to admit that she believed that no matter what corrupt thing Trump has done its nothing like what Joe Biden or Harris has.  She pretty much said that it basically wipes whatever Trump has done as clean.  For each one of your points they either have a defense for it or do not care.  

But what if our system doesn't handle it?

"Free speech means everyone's entitled to have a voice, but how much better would the world be if those voices were rational and well-educated?"
- someone, somewhere, probably.

Well I don't think he's going to respond, cause he's about to miss the deadline. Normally I'd give more time, but he was warned about this type of thing several days ago.

From my experience... it comes from simply not really caring about things beyond your own needs.

Like, my best friend is generally a sane person, but supports Trump, not to the extent of this kind of thing, because he's a cop, and his perception, right or wrong, is that the democratic party is the party of Black Lives Matter, which is anti-police (in his view which I would not necessarily disagree with). 

One of my mom's best friends is pathologically cheap. She's... kind of the stereotypical Jew that makes me so insecure that I tip 30%. Her #1 priority is money, and she doesn't care about anything else. If Trump is going to lower her taxes, she's fine. 

Seems based on Padib's posts (I know you told be not to answer him, but Imma do what I want) seems he's a business owner and the #1 concern he has right now is the threat Covid is posing to his business. So he's willing to believe someone who tells him "nah Covid's no a big deal we can get back to normal tomorrow". 

My (former) therapist was a Jew in Communist Russia, which was not a good place to be. He is understandably very leery of socialism and any step towards it (I don't think the Democratic party is socialist, but they're closer than the republicans at least). He is also older and had a lot of family killed in the Holocaust and believes that Israel's existence is important for the security of Jewish people. So, he recognizes that Trump is fucking insane but I think he'll probably wind up voting for him (although I think he voted Hillary) because of those factors.

And to be honest, in a sense, I get that. I'm definitely in a privileged position. I'm going to law school on my parent's money, and I'm living rent free in my grandmother's apartment (she had to move in with my parents due to health, I didn't kick grandma out). I'm in a position where I can take a broad view of things, because whoever becomes the next President probably won't directly impact my life path. I'll be personally ok, either way, unless I like catch Covid and die or something.

But, if I weren't in this position could I be one of those one issue people? If I was my friend dealing with protests/riots, would I be willing to overlook a bit of tax fraud if I though Trump was going to help with law and order (whether or not he will is another question)? If I was a business owner who might have to close down if there's a real lockdown, would I look the other way at Trump's sketchiness on race relations? Or, if I was a trans person, would I be willing to support whatever candidate is going to make sure I don't get fired for being trans no mater what their fiscal policies are? If I were gay and engaged, would I vote for whatever candidate is going to give me the right to marry my husband? If I were black, would I vote for Biden even if he actually was a socialist, if I believed Trump was a racist? If my job relies on oil, would I look the other way at Trump's bizarre mismanagement of Covid? I gotta say, being an upper middle class cis white male is pretty nice, and allows me to not worry about one issue that will make or break my life.

So, I get why someone might get on board with team Trump. And once someone decides on a team, it's very easy to get them to support their team no matter what. I was one of the most anti Michael Vick people. He's a piece of shit who I honestly wish terrible things upon. When he was welcomed back to the NFL on the Eagles, I was infuriated. When the Jets signed him though? I still hated him, but I found a way to rationalize it. (Erick Decker, one of the WR at the time, was an animal rights advocate, so I figured it balanced out. Though, I did not watch any games when Vick was starting).

It's what humans do. My first instinct when I hear a Trump story is "yeah what an asshole" and my first instinct when reading someone about Biden is "I'm sure this isn't as bad as they claim". But... I'm still able, in my opinion, to think critically. I'm open to evaluating evidence from the other side, but I haven't been getting anything good. If a study came out tomorrow from reputable medical journals saying that Biden's policies on Covid would save 0 lives and cause untold economic damage, I don't know that I would instantly change my voting preference, but it would definitely factor in.

At the risk of sounding like an elitist dick... not all people are able to really think critically. It may be intelligence or it may be a matter of indoctrination, but a lot of people aren't rational. For example, you see Trump's support is crazy strong among Biblically literal evangelicals. They have been raised from birth to distrust scientists, to place their faith in their preachers, and that everyone outside their group is evil. They go to Church at least once a week to hear a man who tells them they are on the front lines of a battle between good and evil, and that any information that conflicts with their worldview is the devil trying to deceive them. It's not a real stretch to see why Trump appeals to them.  And of course, this is not about all churches, just the literalists.

We are a nation that buys penis enlargement pills. Infowars is supported entirely by Alex Jones selling health supplements. We spend billions a year on weight loss products. Half of the ads you see on the internet are for products that are so obviously too good to be true that only an idiot would click on them. But, they're still there... so someone is still clicking. We are constantly dealing with spambots claiming to be beautiful eastern European women who love our user's profiles... and someone's making money on that too. Point is, critical thinking is not our nation's strong point. When we see something that we want to believe, it's not hard to trick us.



And that's what Donald Trump does. He tells you his going to make America great again. Who doesn't want that? He tells you you don't have to worry about that deadly virus. Phew, load off my mind. He's going to single handedly drain the swamp. Awesome! You're going to have the best health insurance ever. I want! The economy is going to recover better than ever. Yes, yes, and yes! All you have to do is believe in him. The big strong man will make all your problems go away.

It's not a new thing, this is how dictators come to power. Hitler was going to make Germany great again. The Bolsheviks would destroy the corrupt Bourgeoisie and the people would be finally be able to thrive. It's the same playbook. 

There are a few things to be thankful for. First, that Trump has no goals beyond stroking his own fragile ego. He has no plan beyond that. The dictators who actually believe they have a higher cause are the truly dangerous ones.

Second, that we live in America... a place where at least in theory, we have protections against this sort of thing. And so far, the bulwarks have bent, but not broken. Trump was not able to keep his tax returns from subpoena. He was not able to use the DOJ as his own personal legal service. Many of his voting suppression tactics have faced resistance. He has not been able to silence his critics. To be sure, there have been many troubling developments, but our system of checks and balances has not completely failed yet.

Third, we are a diverse nation. I have come to believe this is the most important thing in protecting our country. No group has enough power on their own that one can only appeal to them. Trump has to at least pretend to care about black people and Hispanics.

This anyway is what happens when I take Adderall to work on a paper and then get distracted. I go on a rant. But honestly, the cultism of Trump terrifies me. It's not just "Trump is the best choice" it's, "Trump is the one person trying to stop corruption". It's that the media is "undemocratic" for criticizing Trump. That Donald Trump knows how to handle a pandemic better than medical experts. It's not about Trump's policies, because he doesn't have any (literally, the RNC has no platform this year). It's just about hero worship. 

This level of blind faith in a political figure is something I just don't see mirrored on the other side. It's not something I saw for McCain or Romney. Maybe a tiny bit with Bush from the evangelical sect. But Bush, to his credit, didn't lean into it. It's not normal and scary. Wal-mart is taking guns off of its shelves... because they're worried about civil unrest. That's not something that happened before Trump. This is not a "great" America. 

I'm hoping it's just a perfect storm. That in 2016, we had someone who had decades of self-promotion built in, running against a weak candidate, and with the novelty of being an outsider. And that after seeing what that actually means, enough people will realize that whatever we feel about taxes, immigration, or whatever, above all else we need someone sane in the White House.

/rant

Do you even map, bro?

If I were to include tilts instead of tossups, I'd say Georgia and Florida tilt D and Texas tilts R. Barring some massive unforeseen voter dynamics, I don't think any of the likely states are flipping.

I'm pretty confident in all of those, but PA, NC, and AZ. Any one of them would be enough, but I'm nervous in all three.

NC and AZ are in the margin of error. If there is an error, it tends to be one way in most states (although AZ underestimated Clinton last time) so, they could both tilt 2-3 points towards Trump, which I think would be enough to win.

In terms of Pennsylvania, I think Biden will ultimately win, but 2016 still lingers. Also, for the sake of the country, that's the worst state for it to come down to since it will be at least a few days before it's counted. If NC and AZ get called on election night, that would make it harder for Trump to build a "Democrats stole it with mail in voting" narrative. Which shouldn't be a thing... but it is. Trump complained Pennsylvania was rigged in 2016, even when he ended up winning.

Of course, Florida can end this... but I've been burned by Florida too many times. Both literally and figuratively (sunburns, 2000, and 2016).

Edit: On an unrelated note, I am so happy the Jets lost to the Chiefs today. If the Jets could beat the Chiefs... then truly anything is possible.

Democrats were underestimated in Arizona, and Nevada, and Texas, both in 2016 and 2018. Polls are even worse at catching voter intention of non-English speaking voters than they are about non-college Whites. And most of the undecideds down south are also minorities.

Indeed, most pundits are rather bullish on Arizona. More than on the Midwest, even. It is more suburban and college-educated than Nevada. District-level polling is absolutely devastating for the Republicans there.

This is why I even think it's going to be the tipping point state, ahead of Pennsylvania.

Texas, I've given up on trying to predict. The numbers of people voting there is so insane that it's kind of a crap shoot. I would think it's good for democrats, but when the change is that large, it makes the models unreliable.

Clinton did about 2 points better in Arizona going by 538. Nevada was about spot on, although RCP had Trump ahead. John Ralston seems to be a guy who knows these things and is predicting Biden by 6+ in Nevada based on turnout so far, assuming party registration matches votes.

Basically, I'm going to find a reason to be worried no matter what you tell me. If Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania somehow got called for Biden right now, I'd start worrying about California. I'm not going to be calm till Biden hits 270, with no states in recount territory.

Any source for the Arizona numbers? Maybe that will make me feel better.

Edit: Also I'm still a bit confused about how they call the tipping point. From my understanding, it's based on the margin of victory. So if theoretically Biden won 260+ electoral votes by 10+ margin, then won Arizona by 6 and Penn. by 4, then Arizona would be the tipping point. Am I right on that?

I know man, deep down we all are too. But in 2016 people were frolicking and ignoring giant warning signs because Obama overperformed in 2012, so I'd say these things are kind of cyclical.

I think Ralston is underestimating Biden, even. His 6+ scenario actually assumes Trump gets as much crossover appeal and independents as moderate incumbent Heller did in 2018, which seems... a long shot, really.

What I have mostly come from following folks like Wasserman and the Nates on Twitter. And then you have others like Leantossup who are super bullish on Biden but have a good track record and often bring attention to how pollsters are projecting minority turnout.