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Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-camp-cancels-austin-texas-event-after-pro-trump-ambush-on-campaign-bus

http://web.archive.org/web/20201101013828/https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-camp-cancels-austin-texas-event-after-pro-trump-ambush-on-campaign-bus

So dozens of Trump pickups surrounded a Biden campaign bus [CLARIFICATION: It was "just" campaign employees] on the highway in Texas, and one sideswiped a staffer's car at speed.

Trump has said nothing about the incident save this tweet.

http://web.archive.org/web/20201101011505/https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322700188624932869

EDIT: More footage from closer angles here (I don't know if this actually worked):

Last edited by Mr_Destiny - on 31 October 2020

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Not much polling news. A lot of final polls coming in the next two days. But, lets see what we've got.

Bad News

Selzer and Co has Trump up by 7 in Iowa, slightly less than he won the state by in 16. Iowa itself is not so important, but that kind of margin in Iowa would make Biden vulnerable in Ohio, and more importantly, Michigan, Penn, and Wisconsin. Other polls show a much closer race, with Quinnipac having Biden down by 1, NYTimes having Biden up by 3, and Monmouth having him by 5. So, we'll see if this is an outlier, or a warning sign.

Good News

CNN and Marist both have Biden up by 6 in North Carolina. CNN's polling isn't great, but Marist is pretty reliable. NY Times has Biden up by 3. All in all those are pretty good results in a state where a Biden win can end things.

Other than that, really not much. Biden's overall lead is now 8.6%. So, the race has tightened a bit, but not by much. On RCP, Biden's battleground state average is at 3.4, about 2 points higher than Clinton's was. I think this number is being deflated by some sketchy pollsters. Even if the averages are correct though, and even if they're slightly off in Biden's favor, the data suggests Biden winning by a comfortable margin.



Mr_Destiny said:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-camp-cancels-austin-texas-event-after-pro-trump-ambush-on-campaign-bus

http://web.archive.org/web/20201101013828/https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-camp-cancels-austin-texas-event-after-pro-trump-ambush-on-campaign-bus

So dozens of Trump pickups surrounded a Biden campaign bus [CLARIFICATION: It was "just" campaign employees] on the highway in Texas, and one sideswiped a staffer's car at speed.

Trump has said nothing about the incident save this tweet.

http://web.archive.org/web/20201101011505/https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322700188624932869

EDIT: More footage from closer angles here (I don't know if this actually worked):

The law and order candidate ladies and gentlemen.



It’s pretty dead in here considering the election is just a couple days away...



Interesting that the statewide margins in the Midwest and Florida look a lot like 2012's final results. It's the rest of the Sun Belt that moved left compared to back then.

Given recent voting trends, I'm predicting Arizona will flip by more than Pennsylvania, and Trump to be demolished in Nebraska-02. And that Texas will flip before Ohio and Iowa in case of a large-ish Biden win.



 

 

 

 

 

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Lots of high quality polling released today which largely locks in my predictions. Most of it is status quo which is good for Biden, so he should take Penn/Wisc/Mich and Arizona if the polls are accurate. On the other hand, Iowa and Ohio look real tight. I don't think they should matter much, but Biden might end up stealing one or both of them. Florida though is pretty spooky: Sienna/NYT says Biden +3, but ABC/WaPo says Trump +2. Some high quality polling from earlier in the week leans more towards Biden, but this is looking to be a tight race.

Depending on how connected Florida/Georgia/NC are, it is fairly likely that Trump will win all three (all three being must wins for Trump), and it is very likely that Trump will be ahead on the Election Day count for PA. This could very well lead to a scenario that the results look like a Trump win on election night, which could swing to Biden as PA counts more mail-in votes over the next few days.

IMO, this is basically a worst case scenario in terms of potential post-election violence. It lends some legitimacy to Trump's calls for a stolen election (to those who don't know what is going on) and could create a pretty huge mess. Even more so if Trump looks to the Supreme Court to steal the election which could get both camps pretty fired up and pissed off...

I am not looking forward to the next week.



sundin13 said:

Lots of high quality polling released today which largely locks in my predictions. Most of it is status quo which is good for Biden, so he should take Penn/Wisc/Mich and Arizona if the polls are accurate. On the other hand, Iowa and Ohio look real tight. I don't think they should matter much, but Biden might end up stealing one or both of them. Florida though is pretty spooky: Sienna/NYT says Biden +3, but ABC/WaPo says Trump +2. Some high quality polling from earlier in the week leans more towards Biden, but this is looking to be a tight race.

Depending on how connected Florida/Georgia/NC are, it is fairly likely that Trump will win all three (all three being must wins for Trump), and it is very likely that Trump will be ahead on the Election Day count for PA. This could very well lead to a scenario that the results look like a Trump win on election night, which could swing to Biden as PA counts more mail-in votes over the next few days.

IMO, this is basically a worst case scenario in terms of potential post-election violence. It lends some legitimacy to Trump's calls for a stolen election (to those who don't know what is going on) and could create a pretty huge mess. Even more so if Trump looks to the Supreme Court to steal the election which could get both camps pretty fired up and pissed off...

I am not looking forward to the next week.

JWeinCom said:

Not much polling news. A lot of final polls coming in the next two days. But, lets see what we've got.

Bad News

Selzer and Co has Trump up by 7 in Iowa, slightly less than he won the state by in 16. Iowa itself is not so important, but that kind of margin in Iowa would make Biden vulnerable in Ohio, and more importantly, Michigan, Penn, and Wisconsin. Other polls show a much closer race, with Quinnipac having Biden down by 1, NYTimes having Biden up by 3, and Monmouth having him by 5. So, we'll see if this is an outlier, or a warning sign.

Good News

CNN and Marist both have Biden up by 6 in North Carolina. CNN's polling isn't great, but Marist is pretty reliable. NY Times has Biden up by 3. All in all those are pretty good results in a state where a Biden win can end things.

Other than that, really not much. Biden's overall lead is now 8.6%. So, the race has tightened a bit, but not by much. On RCP, Biden's battleground state average is at 3.4, about 2 points higher than Clinton's was. I think this number is being deflated by some sketchy pollsters. Even if the averages are correct though, and even if they're slightly off in Biden's favor, the data suggests Biden winning by a comfortable margin.

Jeez, I'm no Trump supporter per se, but you're I genuinely don't think you get to be supreme arbiters of right and wrong here. So much for being apolitical. 

haxxiy said:

Interesting that the statewide margins in the Midwest and Florida look a lot like 2012's final results. It's the rest of the Sun Belt that moved left compared to back then.

Given recent voting trends, I'm predicting Arizona will flip by more than Pennsylvania, and Trump to be demolished in Nebraska-02. And that Texas will flip before Ohio and Iowa in case of a large-ish Biden win.

I predict a Midwestern landslide before that. Texas isn't reversing unless Biden wins at least by 350+ 

Ka-pi96 said:
Mr_Destiny said:

Nah, it would be more accurate to describe it as terrorism.

I foresee plenty of people with suspended licenses. 



AsGryffynn said:

Jeez, I'm no Trump supporter per se, but you're I genuinely don't think you get to be supreme arbiters of right and wrong here. So much for being apolitical. 

Lolwut? 



sundin13 said:
AsGryffynn said:

Jeez, I'm no Trump supporter per se, but you're I genuinely don't think you get to be supreme arbiters of right and wrong here. So much for being apolitical. 

Lolwut? 

U wut m8? 

Unless you guys are clearly not being apolitical and are partial to one candidate. Sorry, but I barely keep tabs on this thread, so I'm not sure who's who here (or whether you can be apolitical ITT). 



AsGryffynn said:
sundin13 said:

Lolwut? 

U wut m8? 

Unless you guys are clearly not being apolitical and are partial to one candidate. Sorry, but I barely keep tabs on this thread, so I'm not sure who's who here (or whether you can be apolitical ITT). 

Both myself and JWein are supporting Biden in this election and made that very clear. No worries, but it seems weird to assume that someone is apolitical knowing nothing about them...