You just argued with 99% confidence for something that just doesn't happen anywhere as often as you claim. In the last twenty years, it happened just in 2000 and 2018 with eight statewide elections between these two.

It's fine if that's your opinion on what will happen, just don't present your feelings as hard evidence for something.

Come on now, we are talking about Florida here, pretty much the poster child for election incompetence.  Did I use hyperbole in my comment? probably.  The point stands though.  Florida will absolutely be close because it always is.  I’m sure they will manage to mess up their ballot count somehow, especially with desantos running things.  

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.courthousenews.com/floridas-long-long-history-of-election-woes/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/10/20/us/florida-election-problems.amp.html

https://www.npr.org/2018/11/20/669379438/floridas-recount-is-over-but-worries-about-a-2020-election-meltdown-persist

edit:  also, the presidential elections in 2008, 2012, and 2016 all weren’t officially  called in Florida for days after the election.  This isn’t a new thing for Florida.

https://twitter.com/davecatanese?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1322347582660771841%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fjlafp5%3Fresponsive%3Dtrueis_nightmode%3Dfalse

I've talked a bit about certain Republican pollsters and how seriously we should take them.

Here, the guy behind Trafalgar claims that Kanye West is costing Trump the election in Minnesota.

According to their poll... Joe Biden will win 60% of the Asian vote, and Kanye West will win 7.6% which is actually the best Kanye does with any race. Biden is set to win 84.6% of the black vote, Trump will win 1.7, and Kanye will get 6.6... In Florida though, Trump wins 24.5% of the black vote (and 20.2% of the democrat vote), so... Black Minnesotans really hate Trump, but in Florida they don't?

While Kanye's performs best among 25-34 year olds, he also has 2.4% of the 45-64 year old voters, and 1.9% of senior citizens will be untrapping Kanye from the closet. 

In Minnesota, according to Trafalgar, Biden will only get 71.3% of the Democratic vote, but on the bright side, he does get over 1/4 of republican voters to make up for it, and wins by 10% among undecided voters.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/10UpkHFp-n3flFFbe7yW9bJdBchj33E3p/view

While Biden has a 10% lead among independents in Minnesota, he loses that group by 15% in Florida. As mentioned, in Minnesota, only 1.7 percent of black voters back Trump, compared to 24.5% in Florida. 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pObTwLf4tnJIa0PW9KYrQNfqdSE5GwIj/view

In Pennsylvania, Trump gets 10% of the black vote, wins among independents by about 3%, and gets 16.8% of the Democrat vote. 

In Wisconsin Biden beats Trump by 14 points among independents, yet can only secure 68.7% of his own party. 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JUtEW3UCKQi33nZ8hYdItUZ2w_aIIUTk/view

These numbers obviously make no fucking sense. 2% of senior citizens in the overwhelmingly white state of Minnesota are not voting for Kanye fucking west. There should be some degree of consistency among particular demographics. Trump is not losing independents by 14% in Wisconsin, and winning them in Pennsylvania. No reason for that massive difference a few states over.

I don't know about the other strangely pro-Trump polls, but at this point I'm pretty comfortable saying that Trafalgar is not a polling firm, it's a disinformation campaign.  After a fluke in 2016 they gained notoriety, and Trump's favor. After Trump loses, he'll be like "well the poll that got it right in 2016 showed I was gonna win, but den I lost. VOTER FRAUD!"

Trafalgar and other sketchy polls are putting out a ton of polls recently that are skewing the national average on RCP, and to a lesser extent 538. Which is why I feel that Biden might actually outperform what the polls are predicting. Because when the numbers aren't getting dragged down by those polls, his lead becomes far stronger.

538 just had a podcast and video about this. Podcast: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-there-just-isnt-good-evidence-that-shy-trump-voters-exist/

Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mu-tWi3s-Ow

Like the title says it all already, there's no evidence that there's shy voters in large enough numbers to influence the election.

What's all on the ballots apart from who gets to be president:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ywgdZCSaOE

Jon Ralston believes early voting data in Nevada indicates a huge Biden win if independents are breaking for him, as their voting patterns seem to suggest. Close to double digits, even.

Texas Trump supporter blockade tries to run Biden's campaign bus off the road, gets Austin event cancelled.

Voter suppression tactics is in full swing right now. https://globalnews.ca/news/7435192/judge-texas-drive-thru-polls/

Texas Republicans have asked a federal judge to throw out 100,000 ballots in Harris County cast through curbside voting. They drew Judge Andrew Hanen, one of the most notoriously partisan Republican judges in the entire federal judiciary. This is alarming. https://t.co/VODOZrCoUF

— Mark Joseph Stern (@mjs_DC) October 31, 2020

Background: This year, Harris County, one of the biggest and bluest in the state, implemented drive-through voting for people who fear catching coronavirus. State law allows curbside voting for those who fear they may suffer injury to their health if they have to vote indoors with other people (say if they're immunocompromised). The GOP Secretary of State signed off on the plan and it was upheld in the 7-0 conservative state Supreme Court. Over 100k ballots have been cast, but now the Texas GOP is bringing state law to federal court (which has no jurisdiction in most state law cases) to throw out all of those votes. By luck of the draw, the judge accepting the case is a total nutcase, who will probably order the votes discarded, ignoring the obvious lack of jurisdiction, the Purcell Principle that bars changes to rules shortly before an election, etc.

FFS the GOP arguments include such gems as (paraphrased) "equal protection is violated because other counties didn't implement drive-through voting" (as if that's Harris County's problem), "9 of the 10 drive-through locations were in heavily-Democrat areas" (ignoring the fact white areas have always had more voting machines and other election infrastructure since forever), and (get this) "state law prohibits mobile voting stations; election workers hand people the ballots to fill out in their cars; cars can move; ergo, all ballots cast at drive-through voting stations originate from mobile voting stations and must be discarded." (https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/2020/10/Harris-county-new-suit.pdf)

Make whatever conclusion you wish.

Confirming what I said earlier about Biden's lead being way different than the one Hillary had in 2016, according to FiveThirtyEight, the polls would have to be WAY more off than in 2016 for Trump to win this time around.

Not only is Biden way ahead, he would win EVERY single swing state except Texas, Ohio and North Carolina, and that's if the current polls had the EXACT same polling error as in 2016, which not only have they since been adjusted, but with nearly two thirds of the 2016 votes already cast with Biden/Dems dominating the early vote and Biden polling at or above 50% in every state that Clinton won except Nevada AND all the rust belt states except Ohio, that's not likely to be the case this time around.

The same site also gave Trump a respectable 35% chance to win the election in 2016, which he did by the slimmest of margins after a perfect Democratic shit storm: historically unpopular candidate, Comey case reopening, not campaigning in the rust belt states. This time, FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 10% chance of winning stealing the election.

Remember what Lindsey Graham said about using his words against him in 2016? Looks like we might (keyword: MIGHT) be able to use Donnie Boy's words against him as well in 4 days: