People here are acting like the pandemic is over, while it's as high as ever. Our 4th wave is going up as quickly as in other parts of the world, yet people are planning large events again, gathering in large groups, not a mask to be seen. (Still mandatory in shops) We're doomed, the attention span just isn't there to get rid of the pandemic.

The population of Canada is ~ 38 million and the mean time for reinfection with a common coronavirus is ~ 4 years. The number of average daily cases in the endemic steady state in Canada would be around 38m / 4 / 365 = ~ 26,000, averaged year-round, or 685 per day per million people.

Assuming 90% protection from death on top of an IFR of 0.6% = 5,694 deaths a year. Since the population at risk for this cause of death would be the same as other viral cases of pneumonia you could expect a partial to full overlap here instead of excess mortality.

That's about as good as you can expect to get.

For countries that have kept Covid deaths very low so far (something that they must be commended for) it's a stark mental accommodation to make. But there's no other way around it.

Got my first Pfizer shot today, no side effects so far and only a negligible soreness in the right arm

Over 60% of COVID patients denied hospitalization

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20210820_14/

COVID patient in Tokyo rejected by 120 hospitals

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20210810_10/

I gotta say. For how much Japan's government charges me for healthcare every month, it doesn't portray a lot of confidence. In the US, despite the high costs of not having health insurance, it wouldn't ever get this bad, especially in my state.

I get my 2nd jab tomorrow, months behind other developed countries, but at least it will be done.

It's a problem for my wife, she can barely handle endemic pneumonia, takes her out for a month. But maybe the continued measures at school will help stop the kids from bringing that home every fall. Endemic flu + pneumonia + covid might just prove too much.

We're just swinging up again, numbers for Ontario

On Saturday, 552 cases were in people not fully vaccinated or had an unknown vaccination status. There were 137 cases in fully vaccinated people.

The province says 212 people are in hospital due to COVID-19, including 130 people in intensive care. Of those 130 people, 123 are not fully vaccinated or have an unknown vaccination status. Seven are fully vaccinated.


No clue if you can look at this way, yet that one day sample suggests you're 4 times less likely to get symptoms (enough to get tested) when fully vaccinated, 137 vs 552, and 17 times less likely to end up in ICU, or nearly 95% protection from getting to the brink.


Now is there any correlation between people reacting badly to the vaccine (developing fever, lung issues) and being more at risk when catching covid / getting more severe effects, despite being vaccinated?

The share is 137 vs 552, this suggests a 1 to 4 situation. It is much worse than that, because it is not taking into account the proportion of population. Fully Vaccinated people in Ontario are 66%/75% (12+) of people.

So put in easy terms 2/3 people are fully vaccinated and 1/3 aren't. Ontario population is ~14.8m. So 4.93m aren't fully vaccinated and 9.86m are. So;

137 out of 9.86m 

552 out of 4.93m

.00001% vs .0001%, a 1 to 10 situation.

But it only gets worse for the unvaccinated if we go with 75% or single dose rate of up to 83%.

I think generally vaccine side-effects have been inversely correlated to the probability of severe Covid, that is, younger people and women report them at greater than average rates.

Not sure if that would apply to people suffering from immune hypersensivity. But even then how someone might react to an intramuscular antigen might not be the same as encountering it in the nasal epithelium.

Doubt I've seen this posted here but I found a nice research paper about excess deaths in many countries. There's also a nice table included.

https://elifesciences.org/articles/69336

Shame there's no data for Turkey as I expect that to be heavily undertracked. Many East European, Central Asian and Latin American countries seem to have much higher excess deaths than their official Covid data would lead you to believe. But also countries like Egypt (13 times higher excess deaths than reported Covid deaths) and South Africa (almost 3 times more) show quite a discrepancy.

some "highlights":

Egypt: reported: 6.6k | excess: 87k
Mexico: reported: 220k | excess: 470k
Poland: reported: 75k | excess: 120k
Russia: reported: 110k | excess: 500k
South Africa: reported 60k | excess: 160k

What stood out to me is the huge difference in cases vs deaths between South Africa and Japan

South Africa had 84.5K new cases with 2,352 deaths, Japan 140K new cases with 176 deaths. (last week's numbers)
Looking at the excess mortality, Japan is -15K, South Africa +160K

I guess cases are extremely under tracked in South Africa, of course also Japan is 41% fully vaccinated, South Africa only 8%, yet the median age in Japan is 48.4, in South Africa 27.6, Japan has about 12 hospital beds per 1,000, South Africa 2.3 per 1,000.

Comparing Apples and Koalas it seems.

What's also interesting is that in some countries Covid-19 saved lives. New Zealand reported 30 deaths, yet has 1,900 few deaths due to covid measures, 1,870 lives saved by the pandemic. And while Japan is currently struggling, they're still 5,000 deaths ahead of a non pandemic year.

Silver lining from online schooling, no flu, no pneumonia, no colds, no sore throats etc since the kids stopped going to school. At what risk though, they haven't been 'training' their immune system for over a year now.

USA: reported: 590k | excess: 640k+
UK: reported: 130k | excess: 110k+   (this surprises me, because we "know" UK has used odd ways of keeping track of covid deaths (lowballing it)
...

..

.

"excess mortality as a percentage of annual baseline mortality (gray)..."

Denmark:
-1%  so.... less people died in 2021, than is avg base line in years past? even with covid19 around...
Our excess deaths are actually a negative number (basically we announced every covid19 death, and had less than normal deaths pr year).


I wonder how accurate these numbers are though.

I wouldn't be surprised if real numbers (of excess deaths) are higher than the ones these researchers got their hands on.
Like eu has good records, and they are open to the public, and dont fiddle with numbers.... alot of countries arnt though.

This paper is only as good, as the accuracy of those excess death counts.
Like I said, alot of countries arnt very paticular about keeping track of things, or handing out that data.