| haxxiy said: The population of Canada is ~ 38 million and the mean time for reinfection with a common coronavirus is ~ 4 years. The number of average daily cases in the endemic steady state in Canada would be around 38m / 4 / 365 = ~ 26,000, averaged year-round, or 685 per day per million people. Assuming 90% protection from death on top of an IFR of 0.6% = 5,694 deaths a year. Since the population at risk for this cause of death would be the same as other viral cases of pneumonia you could expect a partial to full overlap here instead of excess mortality. That's about as good as you can expect to get. For countries that have kept Covid deaths very low so far (something that they must be commended for) it's a stark mental accommodation to make. But there's no other way around it. |
It's a problem for my wife, she can barely handle endemic pneumonia, takes her out for a month. But maybe the continued measures at school will help stop the kids from bringing that home every fall. Endemic flu + pneumonia + covid might just prove too much.
We're just swinging up again, numbers for Ontario
On Saturday, 552 cases were in people not fully vaccinated or had an unknown vaccination status. There were 137 cases in fully vaccinated people.
The province says 212 people are in hospital due to COVID-19, including 130 people in intensive care. Of those 130 people, 123 are not fully vaccinated or have an unknown vaccination status. Seven are fully vaccinated.
No clue if you can look at this way, yet that one day sample suggests you're 4 times less likely to get symptoms (enough to get tested) when fully vaccinated, 137 vs 552, and 17 times less likely to end up in ICU, or nearly 95% protection from getting to the brink.
Now is there any correlation between people reacting badly to the vaccine (developing fever, lung issues) and being more at risk when catching covid / getting more severe effects, despite being vaccinated?
