| SvennoJ said: People here are acting like the pandemic is over, while it's as high as ever. Our 4th wave is going up as quickly as in other parts of the world, yet people are planning large events again, gathering in large groups, not a mask to be seen. (Still mandatory in shops) We're doomed, the attention span just isn't there to get rid of the pandemic. |
The population of Canada is ~ 38 million and the mean time for reinfection with a common coronavirus is ~ 4 years. The number of average daily cases in the endemic steady state in Canada would be around 38m / 4 / 365 = ~ 26,000, averaged year-round, or 685 per day per million people.
Assuming 90% protection from death on top of an IFR of 0.6% = 5,694 deaths a year. Since the population at risk for this cause of death would be the same as other viral cases of pneumonia you could expect a partial to full overlap here instead of excess mortality.
That's about as good as you can expect to get.
For countries that have kept Covid deaths very low so far (something that they must be commended for) it's a stark mental accommodation to make. But there's no other way around it.
