Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

You concerned yet?

Yes 83 47.98%
 
No, but I will be followi... 50 28.90%
 
No, its being overblown 40 23.12%
 
Total:173

Denmark's status update:
+59 new cases today.
0 deaths over the last 48+ hours.

118 still in the hospital, and 19 people in intensive care (16 are on ventilators).
Rt is still far below 1, even with us carefully reopening things.

Overall we've had 11,200+ cases, and something like ~10,000 recoveries.



Also todays best news:

A Remdesivir study showed that only 4 out of 222 patients treated with it, died.
Compaired to 19 out of 199 that were given a placebo instead.
These were all patients that were hospitalised and given air, to help them breathe.

That basically means you can cut down the mortality rate by like 80%, just with giveing people Remdesivir.
(this is 80% amoung those so sick they have to be hospitalised)

Thats huge.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 23 May 2020

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JRPGfan said:

Denmark's status update:
+59 new cases today.
0 deaths over the last 48+ hours.

118 still in the hospital, and 19 people in intensive care (16 are on ventilators).
Rt is still far below 1, even with us carefully reopening things.

Overall we've had 11,200+ cases, and something like ~10,000 recoveries.



Also todays best news:

A Remdesivir study showed that only 4 out of 222 patients treated with it, died.
Compaired to 19 out of 199 that were given a placebo instead.
These were all patients that were hospitalised and given air, to help them breathe.

That basically means you can cut down the mortality rate by like 80%, just with giveing people Remdesivir.
(this is 80% amoung those so sick they have to be hospitalised)

Thats huge.

Odd, this bigger study says it's not a statistically significant increase for the worst cases:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22/covid-19-study-details-benefits-of-treatment-with-remdesivir-and-also-its-limitations/

But Topol noted that there was no sign of a benefit in patients who began the study with the most severe baseline status — those who were on non-invasive ventilation, who were intubated on a ventilator, or who were receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, a treatment in which the oxygen is added to the blood outside the body. “We need to get something that works for these patients who have a high mortality rate,” Topol said.

The study of 1,063 patients included 538 who received remdesivir and 521 who were given a placebo. Those who received remdesivir recovered in a median of 11 days, compared to 15 days for those who received placebo. Mortality in the remdesivir group was 7.1%, compared to 11.9% for the placebo group, but this difference was not statistically significant. This is slightly better than previously results.


However it did speed up recovery time if applied before the worst stage

The severity of patients’ illness was rated on a scale of 1 (not hospitalized) to 8 (dead). The lowest score in the study was a 4, denoting hospitalization, but no need for extra oxygen. The largest group of patients scored a 5, meaning they did need oxygen.

Among patients who scored a 4, there was a 38% benefit in the speed of recovery. Among those who scored 5, there was a 47% benefit. But that benefit fell to 20% among those who scored a 6, meaning they were receiving high-flow ventilation, and a decrease of 0.05% among those who scored a 7, meaning they were intubated or on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Until more data are available, doctors and researchers are likely to debate whether to use remdesivir in sicker patients.



Maybe this explains the difference, are those older results?

There have been concerns that the study’s main goal, originally based on changes in the 8-point score at day 15, was changed before the result was analyzed. Changing goalposts can be a sign that researchers are skewing the results. In the paper, the researchers explain that the concern was that Covid-19 illness was persisting much longer than had been expected. But that original goal, the odds of improvement in the 8-point scale on day 15, was 50% higher in the remdesivir group, a highly statistically significant result.

Some critics saw flaws in the study that could affect how its results are interpreted. The study was stopped after a data safety and monitoring board, a panel of outside experts charged with safeguarding patients in the trial, notified the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which was running the study, that there had been a statistically significant benefit of remdesivir on mortality.

The New England Journal paper does not say, as is normally the case, that the study was stopped. As STAT reported two weeks ago, some critics believe that the study should have continued in order to better discern whether remdesivir reduces the death rate.

“It’s clear from the publication that the study was stopped prior to the completion of a significant number of patients,” said Steven Nissen, a cardiologist at the Cleveland Clinic. “By stopping it early the scientific community was deprived of the opportunity to determine whether remdesivir can or cannot reduce mortality.”




I have Denmark's week over week decrease trending up. Together with today's number, the 3 day avg week over week comparison has risen to 95.8%, still decline, but not far below R1 anymore. It was down to 50% week over week on May 14th, with a steady upturn since then. It could be temporary, with lower numbers week over week variations become amplified.

Last 7 days Denmark had 64 new cases per day, the 7 days before that 83 new cases per day.
Thus looking at a 7 day avg week over week comparison it's 77% from a week ago, which is about Rt of 0.83

Anyway this week its looking like openings do have an effect, but Rt is still below 1. (Even though with today's numbers Rt is up to 0.97)



Update for the continents:

South America is trending just above North America and should soon break clear ahead.

South America: 156% week over week, doubling time of 11 days.
Africa: 128% week over week, doubling time just under 20 days.
Asia: 125% week over week, doubling time of 22 days.
North America: 103% week over week, doubling time of 192 days.
Europe: 77% week over week, halving time just under 19 days.

The world as a whole is growing 112% week over week, doubling time of 42 days.
Yesterday set a new record for total cases in one day 107,716


I added USA to the different strategies graph for comparison with Brazil

Brazil will soon overtake the USA in reported cases per day.
China and Australia are under 10 cases a day.
South Korea holding steady around 20 cases a day.
Japan just under 50 cases per day.
Canada refuses to go below 1,000 cases a day.

A closer look at the week over week changes

USA and Canada are getting awfully close back to growth again.

USA week over week 3 day average 97.4% (Rt of about 0.98)
Canada week over week 3 day average 94.7% (Rt of about 0.96)
Iran still growing steadily, currently 127% week over week, doubling time of 20 days.
Brazil still wildly fluctuating in updates, 161% week over week 7 day average, doubling time of 10 days.
Japan halving their reported cases week over week.

Locally Ontario grew for the 5th day in a row.
Current 3 day average of 118% week over week (Rt of about 1.13) doubling time just under 30 days.
Hopefully we'll be in decline long before any chance of doubling again...
Yesterday also had 2 new cases in my local county.

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 23 May 2020

Think the environment is gaining from Covid19?
Less planes, less traffic, sure, yet long term pollution is on the rise

https://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/plastics-bans-environmental-monitoring-get-short-shrift-during-pandemic-1.4951597

Plastic bags are back in full force, you're not even allowed to bring your own bags anymore.

Fear of contamination from reused packaging and the need to operate with reduced staff and with fewer interactions between people, prompted retailers to bar reusable packaging, from bags to coffee cups. Restaurants were forced to go to a take-out only model, pushing the need for plastic and Styrofoam containers through the roof.

And as the use of plastic containers went up, some cities were forced to cut back, or even cancel outright, municipal recycling programs.

Last week Calgary suspended blue-bin operations entirely because of a COVID-19 outbreak in the city's recycling plant. Edmonton has said about one-quarter of what it collects from blue bins is going to the landfill now because it don't have the staff to handle all the material. In eastern Ontario, Quinte Waste Solutions, which provides recycling to nine municipalities, suspended collection of most hazardous and electronic waste for proper disposal. In Nova Scotia, several recycling depots were closed.


Many environmental programs, regulations and inspections are suspended as well. The plastics industry is doing well.

The plastics industry has seen an uptick in demand in the midst of the virus, said Bob Masterson, the president of the Chemistry Industry Association of Canada.
"What I would say has changed is people, as a result of COVID, have a much better appreciation of the benefit of plastic as a sanitary material for the food industry," he said. Stores across the country rushed to wrap their checkout counters with plastic shields and equip their employees with plastic gloves and face shields. Demand for hand sanitizer -- mostly bottled in plastic -- soared.


Greenpeace disagrees

Sarah King, head of the oceans and plastics program at Greenpeace Canada, disputes that plastics are safer as a means to protect consumers. She said plastics have a place in the medical world but studies have shown the virus actually lives longer on plastic than any other material. A cloth bag that is washed regularly is less likely to be contaminated than a plastic one, she said. "There is a lot of misinformation about plastics as a healthy alternative," said King.

The problem is, people don't trust bringing bags (or other things) into stores, hence you can only get your groceries with store provided plastic bags.




SvennoJ said:

Think the environment is gaining from Covid19?
Less planes, less traffic, sure, yet long term pollution is on the rise

https://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/plastics-bans-environmental-monitoring-get-short-shrift-during-pandemic-1.4951597

Plastic bags are back in full force, you're not even allowed to bring your own bags anymore.

Fear of contamination from reused packaging and the need to operate with reduced staff and with fewer interactions between people, prompted retailers to bar reusable packaging, from bags to coffee cups. Restaurants were forced to go to a take-out only model, pushing the need for plastic and Styrofoam containers through the roof.

And as the use of plastic containers went up, some cities were forced to cut back, or even cancel outright, municipal recycling programs.

Last week Calgary suspended blue-bin operations entirely because of a COVID-19 outbreak in the city's recycling plant. Edmonton has said about one-quarter of what it collects from blue bins is going to the landfill now because it don't have the staff to handle all the material. In eastern Ontario, Quinte Waste Solutions, which provides recycling to nine municipalities, suspended collection of most hazardous and electronic waste for proper disposal. In Nova Scotia, several recycling depots were closed.


Many environmental programs, regulations and inspections are suspended as well. The plastics industry is doing well.

The plastics industry has seen an uptick in demand in the midst of the virus, said Bob Masterson, the president of the Chemistry Industry Association of Canada.
"What I would say has changed is people, as a result of COVID, have a much better appreciation of the benefit of plastic as a sanitary material for the food industry," he said. Stores across the country rushed to wrap their checkout counters with plastic shields and equip their employees with plastic gloves and face shields. Demand for hand sanitizer -- mostly bottled in plastic -- soared.


Greenpeace disagrees

Sarah King, head of the oceans and plastics program at Greenpeace Canada, disputes that plastics are safer as a means to protect consumers. She said plastics have a place in the medical world but studies have shown the virus actually lives longer on plastic than any other material. A cloth bag that is washed regularly is less likely to be contaminated than a plastic one, she said. "There is a lot of misinformation about plastics as a healthy alternative," said King.

The problem is, people don't trust bringing bags (or other things) into stores, hence you can only get your groceries with store provided plastic bags.


Even here in nyc where plastic bags are banned a lot of places have been using them since the quarantine started. 



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jason1637 said:

Even here in nyc where plastic bags are banned a lot of places have been using them since the quarantine started. 

Yep it's been a complete 180. Plastic bags were set to be banned entirely early this year while for years stores have already encouraged people to bring their own re-usable bags and cups (for coffee) and charging for plastic bags. (The store I go to even gives a couple cents discount per bag you brought yourself)

We were almost through our 10+ year stash of old plastic bags (using them as garbage bags). Currently that cupboard is bulging out again from all the plastic bags that keep coming in with groceries. We'll be set for another couple decades for waste container bags :/



SvennoJ said:

Think the environment is gaining from Covid19?
Less planes, less traffic, sure, yet long term pollution is on the rise


The problem is, people don't trust bringing bags (or other things) into stores, hence you can only get your groceries with store provided plastic bags.


Virus Does Not Spread Easily from Contaminated surfaces or animals revised CDC website states.

Hope it's true. My hands have dermatitis from forcible repeated daily washing, touching anything with the slightest texture is worse than running my nails on chalkboards. Moisturizers aren't helping. 



SvennoJ said:
jason1637 said:

Even here in nyc where plastic bags are banned a lot of places have been using them since the quarantine started. 

Yep it's been a complete 180. Plastic bags were set to be banned entirely early this year while for years stores have already encouraged people to bring their own re-usable bags and cups (for coffee) and charging for plastic bags. (The store I go to even gives a couple cents discount per bag you brought yourself)

We were almost through our 10+ year stash of old plastic bags (using them as garbage bags). Currently that cupboard is bulging out again from all the plastic bags that keep coming in with groceries. We'll be set for another couple decades for waste container bags :/

Interesting that I've been able to bring my reusable when I go food shopping. I just have to pack things up myself. I live just outside of NYC. And from what I've seen the local stores are using paper bags over plastic bags here. 



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trunkswd said:
SvennoJ said:

Yep it's been a complete 180. Plastic bags were set to be banned entirely early this year while for years stores have already encouraged people to bring their own re-usable bags and cups (for coffee) and charging for plastic bags. (The store I go to even gives a couple cents discount per bag you brought yourself)

We were almost through our 10+ year stash of old plastic bags (using them as garbage bags). Currently that cupboard is bulging out again from all the plastic bags that keep coming in with groceries. We'll be set for another couple decades for waste container bags :/

Interesting that I've been able to bring my reusable when I go food shopping. I just have to pack things up myself. I live just outside of NYC. And from what I've seen the local stores are using paper bags over plastic bags here. 

Only the LCBO (government liquor stores) use paper bags and some hardware stores. For some reason grocery stores only use plastic here. They do sell durable cloth bags to use, but no one is going to buy a new set of cloth bags every time they go shopping.

Hopefully they reverse that knee jerk policy (putting everything in plastic bags) after that CDC revision.



LurkerJ said:
SvennoJ said:

Think the environment is gaining from Covid19?
Less planes, less traffic, sure, yet long term pollution is on the rise


The problem is, people don't trust bringing bags (or other things) into stores, hence you can only get your groceries with store provided plastic bags.


Virus Does Not Spread Easily from Contaminated surfaces or animals revised CDC website states.

Hope it's true. My hands have dermatitis from forcible repeated daily washing, touching anything with the slightest texture is worse than running my nails on chalkboards. Moisturizers aren't helping. 

LurkerJ, I think I heard that it was like a 60 / 40 split or something between getting it from caughing/sneezes/air breathed vs touching surfaces.
So your more likely to get infected from someone caughing than from touching something another with it touched.

Also virus load, is a HUGE thing.
If someone sneezes in your face, and you get a ton of the virus all at once right in the face...... the degree to which you get hit, will be worse than just getting a tiny bit of the virus on your hands and then from that infecting yourself. Basically the less virus you get, and the longer your immune system has to figur out how to deal with it, the better your outcome.

Another reason why face masks should be mandatory everywhere.
You could try gloves if your out, if your hands are in that state. To get around all the handwashing.