Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

You concerned yet?

Yes 85 48.02%
 
No, but I will be followi... 50 28.25%
 
No, its being overblown 42 23.73%
 
Total:177
SvennoJ said:
JRPGfan said:

Also todays best news:

A Remdesivir study showed that only 4 out of 222 patients treated with it, died.
Compaired to 19 out of 199 that were given a placebo instead.
These were all patients that were hospitalised and given air, to help them breathe.

That basically means you can cut down the mortality rate by like 80%, just with giveing people Remdesivir.
(this is 80% amoung those so sick they have to be hospitalised)

Thats huge.

Odd, this bigger study says it's not a statistically significant increase for the worst cases:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22/covid-19-study-details-benefits-of-treatment-with-remdesivir-and-also-its-limitations/

But Topol noted that there was no sign of a benefit in patients who began the study with the most severe baseline status — those who were on non-invasive ventilation, who were intubated on a ventilator, or who were receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, a treatment in which the oxygen is added to the blood outside the body. “We need to get something that works for these patients who have a high mortality rate,” Topol said.

The study of 1,063 patients included 538 who received remdesivir and 521 who were given a placebo. Those who received remdesivir recovered in a median of 11 days, compared to 15 days for those who received placebo. Mortality in the remdesivir group was 7.1%, compared to 11.9% for the placebo group, but this difference was not statistically significant. This is slightly better than previously results.


However it did speed up recovery time if applied before the worst stage

The severity of patients’ illness was rated on a scale of 1 (not hospitalized) to 8 (dead). The lowest score in the study was a 4, denoting hospitalization, but no need for extra oxygen. The largest group of patients scored a 5, meaning they did need oxygen.

Among patients who scored a 4, there was a 38% benefit in the speed of recovery. Among those who scored 5, there was a 47% benefit. But that benefit fell to 20% among those who scored a 6, meaning they were receiving high-flow ventilation, and a decrease of 0.05% among those who scored a 7, meaning they were intubated or on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Until more data are available, doctors and researchers are likely to debate whether to use remdesivir in sicker patients.



Maybe this explains the difference, are those older results?

There have been concerns that the study’s main goal, originally based on changes in the 8-point score at day 15, was changed before the result was analyzed. Changing goalposts can be a sign that researchers are skewing the results. In the paper, the researchers explain that the concern was that Covid-19 illness was persisting much longer than had been expected. But that original goal, the odds of improvement in the 8-point scale on day 15, was 50% higher in the remdesivir group, a highly statistically significant result.

Some critics saw flaws in the study that could affect how its results are interpreted. The study was stopped after a data safety and monitoring board, a panel of outside experts charged with safeguarding patients in the trial, notified the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which was running the study, that there had been a statistically significant benefit of remdesivir on mortality.

The New England Journal paper does not say, as is normally the case, that the study was stopped. As STAT reported two weeks ago, some critics believe that the study should have continued in order to better discern whether remdesivir reduces the death rate.

“It’s clear from the publication that the study was stopped prior to the completion of a significant number of patients,” said Steven Nissen, a cardiologist at the Cleveland Clinic. “By stopping it early the scientific community was deprived of the opportunity to determine whether remdesivir can or cannot reduce mortality.”

Yeah it seems like it doesnt do wonders if you give it, when the patient is already on a ventilor and near death.
Preferably as soon as their so bad their hospitalised, thats when you give it to them.



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Luxembourg now gonna start reall mass testing. From Monday through end of Juli the country wants to test 20000 persons per day, or 3% of it's population each and every day. That way the country wants to ensure that there are no unknown asymptomatic patients spreading the disease and to know exactly who got the disease who didn't.

In any case the disease in slowly going away. On Thursday, out of 750 tests only one had been positive.

Luxembourg also has expanded on the statistics they release, now including R0 rates and how they are evolving.

https://msan.gouvernement.lu/en/graphiques-evolution.html#sg

Also comes with a handy description how R0 exactly works:

https://msan.gouvernement.lu/dam-assets/covid-19/graph/Description-reproduction-numbers.pdf



Oh, and a nice little video about how Covid-19 compares to yearly flu and drowning deaths (after someone claimed that more people would die in Swimming pools each year than on Covid-19) to Covid-19 deaths. And that's with the dark number of flu cases each year included as he's explaining at the end:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rEO8iJB45A

Even though the flu gets an early lead due to starting the comparison at the starting date of the flu season according to the CDC on October 1st, once Covid gets going flu can't keep up, and it's not even close.





Why do people still compare Corvid to the Flu...if Countries had done nothing the amount dead from Corvid would be exceptional higher.. the Hospitals would have been overun within days.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:

Luxembourg now gonna start reall mass testing. From Monday through end of Juli the country wants to test 20000 persons per day, or 3% of it's population each and every day. That way the country wants to ensure that there are no unknown asymptomatic patients spreading the disease and to know exactly who got the disease who didn't.

In any case the disease in slowly going away. On Thursday, out of 750 tests only one had been positive.

Luxembourg also has expanded on the statistics they release, now including R0 rates and how they are evolving.

https://msan.gouvernement.lu/en/graphiques-evolution.html#sg

Also comes with a handy description how R0 exactly works:

https://msan.gouvernement.lu/dam-assets/covid-19/graph/Description-reproduction-numbers.pdf

That's great, mass testing and "catching" those asymptomatic people is a great step up since those are the ones that spread the virus like crazy. Here we started doing it a few weeks ago and for some reason some people were pissed about the health ministry comunicating numbers of asymptomatic patients. 



Naum said:
Why do people still compare Corvid to the Flu...if Countries had done nothing the amount dead from Corvid would be exceptional higher.. the Hospitals would have been overun within days.

That's all those Ant-vaxxers, conspiracy theorists and those who demonize anything they deem "socialist" and the like who think that Covid-19 ain't real and just a ploy to extend government control or something along those lines. They keep bringing up the flu and portray it as something much more vile as it really is to belittle Covid-19



Bofferbrauer2 said:

Luxembourg now gonna start reall mass testing. From Monday through end of Juli the country wants to test 20000 persons per day, or 3% of it's population each and every day. That way the country wants to ensure that there are no unknown asymptomatic patients spreading the disease and to know exactly who got the disease who didn't.

In any case the disease in slowly going away. On Thursday, out of 750 tests only one had been positive.

Luxembourg also has expanded on the statistics they release, now including R0 rates and how they are evolving.

https://msan.gouvernement.lu/en/graphiques-evolution.html#sg

Also comes with a handy description how R0 exactly works:

https://msan.gouvernement.lu/dam-assets/covid-19/graph/Description-reproduction-numbers.pdf

I don't think it will matter much in the long run, sooner or later your country will open up your borders and than foreigners from other european countries will visit and spread the virus. You can only stop the virus for so long.

Edit: where you getting 1 confirmed case from, reading worldometer you guys had 9 confirmed cases today?



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Bofferbrauer2 said:

Luxembourg now gonna start reall mass testing. From Monday through end of Juli the country wants to test 20000 persons per day, or 3% of it's population each and every day. That way the country wants to ensure that there are no unknown asymptomatic patients spreading the disease and to know exactly who got the disease who didn't.

In any case the disease in slowly going away. On Thursday, out of 750 tests only one had been positive.

Luxembourg also has expanded on the statistics they release, now including R0 rates and how they are evolving.

https://msan.gouvernement.lu/en/graphiques-evolution.html#sg

Also comes with a handy description how R0 exactly works:

https://msan.gouvernement.lu/dam-assets/covid-19/graph/Description-reproduction-numbers.pdf

Interesting, and good job by Luxembourg! Hopefully with that early warning system in place you can prevent a second wave, keep the water calm.

I've probably been calculating Rt eff wrong.
I've been comparing week over week changes, then take the 7Root() from the change in reported cases (average of 3 days, compared to avg of 3 days exactly one week ago) to get the avg daily change factor without the weekly cycle in reporting interfering. Then I take that number to the power 5.1 (the median incubation period) to reflect how many people each infected person infects.
I guess it's the same thing in a roundabout way.

For example when I apply that to Luxembourg
23 cases reported from May 20 to 22
29 cases reported from May 13 to 15
Factor 0.7931 for 7 day comparison, 0.967x per day (7Root), Rt eff 0.845 (0.967 to the power 5.1) for May 21st

The graph shows 0.85 for the 20th, I guess it comes out the same :)

Looking at changes in reported cases really needs more cases to stay accurate. Below 100, fluctuations in reporting start to amplify a lot.
I've also been redistributing outliers here and there when a country I'm tracking suddenly throws up a whole bunch of old cases. For example France is really bad with outliers, -141 cases one day, spike of 3640 cases earlier. Plus a couple days ago France resurrected 217 people. The UK also had -525 cases a few days ago. Ireland also put up a nice outlying spike not long ago. I mostly keep the messy data as is in the primary graphs (except the negative deaths), but need some adjusting for the growth comparisons since it will skew the stats twice for several days. Kalman filtering by hand...




Bofferbrauer2 said:

Luxembourg now gonna start reall mass testing. From Monday through end of Juli the country wants to test 20000 persons per day, or 3% of it's population each and every day. That way the country wants to ensure that there are no unknown asymptomatic patients spreading the disease and to know exactly who got the disease who didn't.

In any case the disease in slowly going away. On Thursday, out of 750 tests only one had been positive.

Luxembourg also has expanded on the statistics they release, now including R0 rates and how they are evolving.

https://msan.gouvernement.lu/en/graphiques-evolution.html#sg

Also comes with a handy description how R0 exactly works:

https://msan.gouvernement.lu/dam-assets/covid-19/graph/Description-reproduction-numbers.pdf

Don't really see a point when the border to Germany is already open but okay why not.