By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

SvennoJ said:
Comparable to the flu again?

CDC estimates about 56,000 Americans die from the flu each year. Covid-19 already claimed over 219,000 lives in the USA, that with maybe 10% infected.

The highest estimate for Flu world wide seems to be 650K
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/
Worldwide over 1 million have already died from Covid-19 while only 10% (might) have had it.

What will a direct comparison covering the same time frame show when it comes to flu deaths vs covid? Odds are beyond unlikely that the U.S. is going to end up with around 60,000 flu death's again, plus 220,000+ covid death's. The point being, it's all but certain, that some of those unfortunate souls, who would've statistically died from the flu, are going to have died from covid instead. How many that is exactly who knows? How does that apply worldwide?



Around the Network
EricHiggin said:
SvennoJ said:
Comparable to the flu again?

CDC estimates about 56,000 Americans die from the flu each year. Covid-19 already claimed over 219,000 lives in the USA, that with maybe 10% infected.

The highest estimate for Flu world wide seems to be 650K
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/
Worldwide over 1 million have already died from Covid-19 while only 10% (might) have had it.

What will a direct comparison covering the same time frame show when it comes to flu deaths vs covid? Odds are beyond unlikely that the U.S. is going to end up with around 60,000 flu death's again, plus 220,000+ covid death's. The point being, it's all but certain, that some of those unfortunate souls, who would've statistically died from the flu, are going to have died from covid instead. How many that is exactly who knows? How does that apply worldwide?

Actually in Denmark because of all the handwashing, people keeping distance to one another, we've had unsually mild flu cases/deaths.
So much so that we re currently on a 6 year low, in terms of avg deaths pr year. Also doctors have warned about flu + corona, and highly recammended the elderly to go get their flu shots (which more than usual have done).

Mild Corona cases (fatalities) and unsually low Flu year numbers = lowest death rates in 6years+ time.

Hopefully it stays like that, as we re heading into the flu season.

There was actually a article about it, I read today, which made me reply to this question of yours.

https://www.bt.dk/samfund/danmark-har-det-laveste-antal-doede-i-seks-aar



Mnementh said:
numberwang said:

You can't use a guesstimate for cases and compare it to confirmed deaths. You would also have to guesstimate deaths. We know about Bergamo at least, that only about one fourth of deaths reached official statistics. That may be similar in other regions. The real number of deaths is higher than 1M.

That is not true.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v3

All combined excess deaths, whatever their cause, were about twice attributed Covid-19 deaths by May 24 in Bergamo (3101 to about 6285). I couldn't find whether more deaths were re-attributed to Covid-19 later than this date, so let's leave at that. The other most affected regions in Northern Italy had all combined excess deaths at around 40% above to 100% above the total Covid-19 deaths.

Elsewhere, talking now about places where deaths have more or less returned to baseline by now, you have Manaus (2,500 Covid-19 to 3,400 excess), Mumbai (9,300 Covid-19 to about 13,500 excess). Peru as a whole is probably the worst case in the world (33,500 Covid-19 to 87,000 excess) but healthcare has collapsed months ago, so it's hard to tell how that's impacting other preventable causes. Of course, the pandemic is ultimately the root cause, so let's count all of that as Covid-19 deaths.

So, as a whole, there's little evidence to believe the real toll is much higher than 1.5 - 2 million worldwide at the moment.

Remind that the world, on average, is over a decade younger than most of Europe or North America, with a fraction (a third to less than a tenth) as many people over 65 years of age. That alone might overwhelm all other factors, including access to healthcare, in terms of determining the IFR worldwide.



 

 

 

 

 

EricHiggin said:
SvennoJ said:
Comparable to the flu again?

CDC estimates about 56,000 Americans die from the flu each year. Covid-19 already claimed over 219,000 lives in the USA, that with maybe 10% infected.

The highest estimate for Flu world wide seems to be 650K
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/
Worldwide over 1 million have already died from Covid-19 while only 10% (might) have had it.

What will a direct comparison covering the same time frame show when it comes to flu deaths vs covid? Odds are beyond unlikely that the U.S. is going to end up with around 60,000 flu death's again, plus 220,000+ covid death's. The point being, it's all but certain, that some of those unfortunate souls, who would've statistically died from the flu, are going to have died from covid instead. How many that is exactly who knows? How does that apply worldwide?

The 2019-2020 flu season in the US looks like it was about a middle of the road kind of season when you look at hospitalizations so there's little reason to think deaths will be notably off the average.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

60,000 deaths is not a standard flu season btw. Deaths from Flu has been as low as 12,000 in the 2011-2012 season to as high as 61,000 in 2017-2018 but just last year was notably better with 34,000 deaths in the 2018-2019 season. I think the idea that 60,000 deaths is standard came when covid deaths were in that ballpark and people wanted to claim that it was no worse than a standard flu season when in reality they were already comparing it to the worst flu season in 10 years. 

Right now the estimate is that the 2019-2020 season had 22,000 flu deaths which is pretty reasonable and I'd be hard pressed to make the claim that that is lower because they died from Corona before flu could get them. 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html



...

haxxiy said:
Mnementh said:

You can't use a guesstimate for cases and compare it to confirmed deaths. You would also have to guesstimate deaths. We know about Bergamo at least, that only about one fourth of deaths reached official statistics. That may be similar in other regions. The real number of deaths is higher than 1M.

That is not true.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v3

All combined excess deaths, whatever their cause, were about twice attributed Covid-19 deaths by May 24 in Bergamo (3101 to about 6285). I couldn't find whether more deaths were re-attributed to Covid-19 later than this date, so let's leave at that. The other most affected regions in Northern Italy had all combined excess deaths at around 40% above to 100% above the total Covid-19 deaths.

Elsewhere, talking now about places where deaths have more or less returned to baseline by now, you have Manaus (2,500 Covid-19 to 3,400 excess), Mumbai (9,300 Covid-19 to about 13,500 excess). Peru as a whole is probably the worst case in the world (33,500 Covid-19 to 87,000 excess) but healthcare has collapsed months ago, so it's hard to tell how that's impacting other preventable causes. Of course, the pandemic is ultimately the root cause, so let's count all of that as Covid-19 deaths.

So, as a whole, there's little evidence to believe the real toll is much higher than 1.5 - 2 million worldwide at the moment.

Remind that the world, on average, is over a decade younger than most of Europe or North America, with a fraction (a third to less than a tenth) as many people over 65 years of age. That alone might overwhelm all other factors, including access to healthcare, in terms of determining the IFR worldwide.

Yep, the average age makes a huge difference. Comparing India to the USA, both would end up with about the same death toll (adjusted for age demographics) while India has over 4 times the population.

Excess deaths aren't reliable anymore since lock downs, far less travel, better hygiene and face masks. Those all prevent regular accidents and infections as well. No more bringing home exotic diseases, less work related injuries and deaths, less travel related deaths, less deaths from other infectious diseases. It's of course hard to tell how many extra deaths were caused by Covid-19 due to overwhelming the healthcare system and suspending other treatments and preventative surgeries.

Currently Western nations are flirting with disaster. We keep going until the healthcare system gets too busy. The focus doesn't seem to be on saving lives anymore (maybe it never was) but on saving money as usual. Maybe every death should cost the government 100K, then they'll do something about it.



Around the Network

why do people still compare Covid to the Flu.."we" don't have a lockdown during flu season so you cant compare the two.

Lets say that no country in the world had a lockdown and just go on like normal... the deaths of Covid would be astronomical higher then it is now.



If it isn't turnbased it isn't worth playing   (mostly)

And shepherds we shall be,

For Thee, my Lord, for Thee. Power hath descended forth from Thy hand, That our feet may swiftly carry out Thy command. So we shall flow a river forth to Thee And teeming with souls shall it ever be. In Nomine Patris, et Filii, et Spiritūs Sancti. -----The Boondock Saints

Just after Trump twittered to now be immune

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/first-case-of-covid-19-reinfection-confirmed-in-the-u-s-study-1.5142116

The first study to confirm a case of coronavirus reinfection in the U.S. found evidence that an individual with no known immune disorders or underlying health conditions was infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, in two separate instances.

According to a new case study, published Monday in The Lancet, the 25-year-old Nevada man was infected by two different SARS-CoV-2 variants within a 48-day timeframe, while testing negative between each infection.



JRPGfan said:
EricHiggin said:

What will a direct comparison covering the same time frame show when it comes to flu deaths vs covid? Odds are beyond unlikely that the U.S. is going to end up with around 60,000 flu death's again, plus 220,000+ covid death's. The point being, it's all but certain, that some of those unfortunate souls, who would've statistically died from the flu, are going to have died from covid instead. How many that is exactly who knows? How does that apply worldwide?

Actually in Denmark because of all the handwashing, people keeping distance to one another, we've had unsually mild flu cases/deaths.
So much so that we re currently on a 6 year low, in terms of avg deaths pr year. Also doctors have warned about flu + corona, and highly recammended the elderly to go get their flu shots (which more than usual have done).

Mild Corona cases (fatalities) and unsually low Flu year numbers = lowest death rates in 6years+ time.

Hopefully it stays like that, as we re heading into the flu season.

There was actually a article about it, I read today, which made me reply to this question of yours.

https://www.bt.dk/samfund/danmark-har-det-laveste-antal-doede-i-seks-aar

Another good point. A greater focus on everyday health and follow through is another thing to take into account. Not all countries would be directly comparable for many reasons.

Torillian said:
EricHiggin said:

What will a direct comparison covering the same time frame show when it comes to flu deaths vs covid? Odds are beyond unlikely that the U.S. is going to end up with around 60,000 flu death's again, plus 220,000+ covid death's. The point being, it's all but certain, that some of those unfortunate souls, who would've statistically died from the flu, are going to have died from covid instead. How many that is exactly who knows? How does that apply worldwide?

The 2019-2020 flu season in the US looks like it was about a middle of the road kind of season when you look at hospitalizations so there's little reason to think deaths will be notably off the average.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

60,000 deaths is not a standard flu season btw. Deaths from Flu has been as low as 12,000 in the 2011-2012 season to as high as 61,000 in 2017-2018 but just last year was notably better with 34,000 deaths in the 2018-2019 season. I think the idea that 60,000 deaths is standard came when covid deaths were in that ballpark and people wanted to claim that it was no worse than a standard flu season when in reality they were already comparing it to the worst flu season in 10 years. 

Right now the estimate is that the 2019-2020 season had 22,000 flu deaths which is pretty reasonable and I'd be hard pressed to make the claim that that is lower because they died from Corona before flu could get them. 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

How many people stayed away from hospitals because of covid? Lockdowns enforced to stop the spread of covid would surely have a noteworthy impact on the spread of the flu. If you're weak enough to die from a case of the flu, then you're certainly weak enough to die from covid. If covid is taking a bunch of susceptible people out, there's less weak hosts for the flu to kill or pass through.

There's a ton of questions as to the exact hard numbers and how covid impacted everything. While we would obviously like solid answers now, it's the kind of thing that will take time to hash it all out.



First covid reinfection death.

"An elderly Dutch woman has become the first known person to die from catching Covid-19 twice, according to experts, raising serious questions about how long immunity and antibodies can last."



Mnementh said:
numberwang said:

WHO says that 10% or 780 million have been infected so far (compared to 36 million positive pcr tests and 1 million 'covid involved death')

1. Global CFR is 0.14% and thus comparable to the flu. Considering that CFR was probably higher at the beginning, it is now lower than 0.14% and will continue to drop.

2. Testing random people was completely useless, missing >95% of covid anyway.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/10/05/world-health-organization-10-world-population-mightve-had-covid/3622678001/

You can't use a guesstimate for cases and compare it to confirmed deaths. You would also have to guesstimate deaths. We know about Bergamo at least, that only about one fourth of deaths reached official statistics. That may be similar in other regions. The real number of deaths is higher than 1M.

Covid deaths are probably overestimated considering the inflated method of counting every deaths with a positive pcr test regardless of underlying conditions. Many countries have too many 'covid deaths' with not enough total excess mortality as a match. Total global infections is based on antibody tests and should be quite reliable.

The US is again predicted to be back at baseline total mortality (graph ends October 3) even though we still have many 'covid involved death' papers.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Last edited by numberwang - on 14 October 2020