Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

You concerned yet?

Yes 85 48.02%
No, but I will be followi... 50 28.25%
No, its being overblown 42 23.73%

SvennoJ said:
NightlyPoe said:

Okay, I understand where those numbers came from now.  But don't they do more to prove my point?  The United States' peak is only just slightly above where Europe is today, weeks after they hit their peak.

Presumably the deaths per million were a lot worse 2 weeks ago, were they not?

No it's been pretty flat up to Easter

The thicker top line is the avg daily reported cases. You can see the USA catching up to Europe's reporting and flattening out later. It could till go up but very likely go down later than Europe (unless Russia starts getting really bad)

The thinner lower line is the avg daily reported deaths. The USA is quite a bit lower than Europe yet also reached a plateau later (I wouldn't call it a peak yet) while Europe is keeping the count high by adding older data (nursing home deaths now confirmed to be from covid19)

That graph only goes until Good Friday and since then reporting has gone unreliable, USA might stay under Europe, might cross over like Spain gained over Italy. Too early to tell, yet both are flattening at least.

Louisiana vs New York could still turn out to be like Spain vs Italy. NY is so far ahead in tests given it kinda skews the picture. Sure NY has nearly twice the population as Louisiana yet did over 4 times as many tests.

What I also fear could be happening in the USA is people opting to simply stay home. Many people have lost their job and thus health insurance, many couldn't afford the co-pay anyway, plenty others are not insured at all. Hospitals can't do all that much, might as well self quarantine. That happens here in Canada as well even with free healthcare. And the amount of deaths are under reported here as well.

Let me suggest that Europe is plateauing longer than the United States will because they are a lot less uniform than the United States.  You keep saying that the United States is about 2 weeks behind Europe, but really that's only true of Italy.  Countries like Spain, France, and the UK followed later.  In the UK's case, they're actually pretty close to the United States' timetable.

The US, on the other hand, actually is a whole lot more uniform.  It wasn't exactly the same everywhere, places like California and Washington went into lockdown faster, while places like Louisiana and Detroit got hit a little later, but it's close enough that one would expect the plateau in the United States to look more like an individual country's chart than Europe as a whole which looks like it's maintaining as other countries reach their own peaks.

SpokenTruth said:
NightlyPoe said:

Yes, I get the theory.  One, big bad buyer able to negotiate prices down with reduced overhead.  I just don't buy it.  The government isn't known as a model of efficiency.  One can imagine the patchwork of interest-protected bloat and shameful deficiencies that would work its way into the system in short order.

I don't think you understand what Medicare for All is.  It's a single payer system, not a managed system.  The VA healthcare is an example of a managed system.

Medicare only pays for your healthcare, it doesn't manage it.  All the hospitals, companies, employees, etc...are all still private.  

I don't believe I said otherwise.

Around the Network
vivster said:
It's Easter's end, can't wait for the big bombs to drop today. Probably gonna reach 2m infected today.

Some will drop today, but most will be delayed until tomorrow. A lot of countries present their test results from the previous day, Easter Monday in this case. Which is probably still going to be low. Italy for example always gives their total from the day before all at once. And most test results are a day behind anyway, tests taken yesterday (likely fewer) are going through the labs today. But 2 million is very likely today. Europe has 2 or 3 days left before crossing the 1 million.

I'm updating some of my growth graphs atm, it's quite comical, everything is falling off a cliff. Easter cured covid19!

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 14 April 2020

600k cases in the US now.

The social distancing is starting to show effect, right? It slowed down the world meters numbers by almost a week instead of hitting 2 million a few days ago?


China Numba wan!!

Easter weekend had a much bigger effect (under reporting both infections and deaths) but yes, social distancing had been working. Without any measures we would now have been at nearly 1 million new cases per day!

Around the Network

It's a bit unfair for Trump to go on a full on war against drugs when thier is a public health emergency. Great time to put the addixt populations of drug users to be going through withdrawls from hardcore narcotics which could easily put people in hospitals and more desperate to go outside. Clamping down on Venezuela has little to do with drugs I'm sure and it'll only make Madorro more desperate with another majour income scource for the country to be taken out,


China Numba wan!!

Easter has other effects, in Italy police busted some people who were having a BBQ, in Colombia Police busted people on a farm where they had a big party with scantily clad women and a lot of drugs and alcohol.  They were similar stories all around the world.

Last edited by Chicho - on 14 April 2020

Chicho said:

Easter has other effects, in Italy police busted some people who were having a BBQ, in Colombia Police busted people on a farm where they had a big party with scantily clad women and a lot of drugs and alcohol.  They were similar stories all around the world.

Yep, with average 5.2 day incubation time we'll see the effects of that in Friday's reporting, however mostly disguised by the regular weekend dip in reporting. There might be a slight uptick in deaths in 2.5 weeks time.

It's getting tedious, the more people ignore social distancing, the longer we have to keep social distancing, the more people will ignore social distancing. It will be interesting to see how Austria is going to do in the next 2 weeks. They might have gotten it down far enough, averaging 300 new cases per day before the Easter dip. Ontario was still at 400 cases a day, measures extended until May at least.

Mnementh said:

haxxiy said:

Most countries have criteria for testing. Something like symptoms and contact to known infected. If the number of tests goes down it means fewer people are meeting this criteria. This is by far not bulletproof and broad testing without preconditions would be better, but it probably still means the number of infected is slowly going down.

I'm not sure to which extent this holds, since we don't know if the drops are due to less people meeting these criteria or a scarcity of tests. The latter would likely be regional instead of randomly distributed, and likely happen where tests are needed the most. That could artificially drop the number of infected cases per tests realized in a given region.

But that is merely my speculation, of course.

Besides, since we know tests are lacking in a lot of places and they are sorely needed, I'd assume to be good public policy and in everyone's interest to change the criteria on the go and test more people, as per the WHO's recommendations, if you happen to be sitting on a pile of them.






according to the NYTimes 3k deaths of people with covid-19 symptoms (not tested) have been added to the NYCity count, meaning over 10k ppl died of the disease in the city alone