2022 imo.

round numbers
2017 - 15 million / 15 million
2018 - 17 million / 32 million
2019 - 20 million / 52 million
2020 - 30 million / 82 million
2021 - 30 million / 112 million
2022 - 22 million / 134 million

PS4 will sell 125 million lifetime

This thread will be immortalized

I'd say first half of 2023.

Second half 2023, but before holiday season starts.

Next check of the evolution of the people who think never:

So yeah the trend is clear here, more and more people believe that the Switch can do it.

Pretty sure that if this would have been made today, the vast majority would say that the Switch would outsell the PS4.

Yea in 2019 I would've said it'll be difficult for the Switch to outsell the PS4 since PS consoles usually have longer legs that I didn't think the Switch could overcome. But now in 2020 where the Switch may have a 30M year in it's 4th year, it makes me believe that the Switch will now outsell the PS4 since even if the Switch begins to decline in 2021, it would've taken a long while for sales to completely die off. With a late peak that ensures a longer and healthier lifetime of sales for the Switch. I still think it'll be close but I would now say it's more likely than not we see the Switch outsell the PS4. As sales of 120-140M is becoming increasingly likely. Also, let's say Switch sales from here on out drop off a cliff like the Wii, the Switch would still sell 132M units in it's lifetime, and that's sort of a lowball prediction to say it'll drop off a cliff like the Wii which died fairly quickly. So 140M is becoming more likely.

Back when this thread started, there was a huge amount of people believing the Switch would never outsell the PS4. But 2020 was an insane year for the Switch. I can see it outselling the PS4 after a couple of years.

Now that the PS5 era is beginning, the gap will probably only shrink.

One year late, pretty sure you had no idea how correct that statement would turn out to be...

I had originally predicted First Half of '24, now I gotta bump it forward to Second First Half of '23.

Not so much because of the Switch, but the PS4. The Switch will continue to sell like crack in these next 3-4 years and blow away every other console in its path during that span. Meanwhile, the PS4 is dropping at a far more rapid rate than I, or anyone, anticipated. The fact Sony discontinuing production in Japan almost entirely is a very telling sign. Now you may say that it's just Japan, where the PlayStation brand as a whole has been steadily declining. But it's not just Japan, it's everywhere else. The week before Christmas in 2019, the PS4 sold ~699k units; 2020? ~199k. As for the entire year? In 2019, it sold nearly 14.3 million units for the year; 2020? Even with the benefit of a 53rd week? It won't even reach 9 million.

Moving forward, Sony is going all in with the PS5 and doing everything they can to produce enough units to meet demand. And initial demand for the PS5 is going to be through the roof. If they are able to supply enough, it should be able to sell notably more than the PS4 did in its first 2 years on the market. But that is going to come at the expense of the PS4, whose decline is now going to be accelerated. Before, I thought it might just leg it out to 125 million. Now, I'm not so sure if it'll even reach 120 million. As time goes on, the bar is being set lower and lower for the Switch to pass the PS4. I say now that it'll pass it in the First Half of '23, but I would not be surprised in the slightest if it did it much sooner.

Hi @PAOerfulone Great analysis as always, personally I just selected second half of 2022, obviously I am making my selection with a lot more data than everyone before, so it is not very impressive. 

I think 2021 should end above 100M for the Switch, I don't think the PS4 will be able to reach 120M, So this makes me think that in order to pass the PS4, it would need to sell around 20M in 2022, something that has a slight but probable chance. DS sold much more than that, but DS is a monster.