Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 9 4.50%
 
First half of 2023 5 2.50%
 
Second half of 2023 18 9.00%
 
First half of 2024 10 5.00%
 
Second half of 2024 15 7.50%
 
First half of 2025 7 3.50%
 
Second half of 2025 5 2.50%
 
Later than above 1 0.50%
 
Never 130 65.00%
 
Total:200
MasonADC said:
curl-6 said:

To be honest, I'm starting to doubt Switch will sell as well as it could have and pass the Wii.

It's less than a month til Animal Crossing and there don't have a single major game with a release date beyond that. It really looks like they've run out of software and are hanging the system out to dry, like they did with Wii in 2011 and Wii U in 2016.

They also haven’t had a direct yet, and those two things kinda run hand in hand so wait til the first direct happens before touting doom 

I dunno, it seems to me that they would've had a general direct by now if they had enough to show to fill one. There's no reason for them to wait this long otherwise.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 25 February 2020

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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curl-6 said:
MasonADC said:

They also haven’t had a direct yet, and those two things kinda run hand in hand so wait til the first direct happens before touting doom 

It seems to me that they would've had a direct by now if they had enough to show to fill one. There's no reason for them to wait this long otherwise.

How about the fact that they never have a q1 game as big as Animal crossing? And the switch isn’t a first party only machine, they could fill up a direct with indies and third parties ports if they really wanted to. This year will be fine 



MasonADC said:
curl-6 said:

It seems to me that they would've had a direct by now if they had enough to show to fill one. There's no reason for them to wait this long otherwise.

How about the fact that they never have a q1 game as big as Animal crossing? And the switch isn’t a first party only machine, they could fill up a direct with indies and third parties ports if they really wanted to. This year will be fine 

I hope you're right, but I can't shake the deja vu, this is EXACTLY how things went down in 2011 and 2016. The year starts, the schedule is barren, but we keep thinking it's okay, just wait til E3/the next Direct, they'll have more to show. So we wait, month after month passes, until it becomes inescapably apparent that they simply have little to show for themselves.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 25 February 2020

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
MasonADC said:

How about the fact that they never have a q1 game as big as Animal crossing? And the switch isn’t a first party only machine, they could fill up a direct with indies and third parties ports if they really wanted to. This year will be fine 

I hope you're right, but I can't shake the deja vu, this is EXACTLY how things went down in 2011 and 2016. The year starts, the schedule is barren, but we keep thinking it's okay, just wait til E3/the next Direct, they'll have more to show. So we wait, month after month passes, until it becomes inescapably apparent that they simply have little to show for themselves.

Its annoying not having any clue what they have planned but comparing it to Wii in 2011 or Wii U in 2016 doesnt hold much weight.

In 2011 Nintendo was actively developing games for 4 platforms (DS/Wii/3DS/Wii U) and in 2016 they were developing for 3 platforms (3DS/Wii U/NSW).

In 2020 Nintendo has a single platform to support so them being secretive means nothing more than they are just being secrative.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

It will never happen, unless Nintento will release only updated versions of Switch for the next 5-7 years...



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

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Looks like the number of believers is growing. End of January, 66.66% said never, now it's down to 64.88%



3 Months later, the number of disbelievers jumped up slightly again, to 65.12% with 112 saying never, even though the chances of it happening are climbing with every month.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
3 Months later, the number of disbelievers jumped up slightly again, to 65.12% with 112 saying never, even though the chances of it happening are climbing with every month.

Heh, I guess some people saw the PS5 show and concluded, "Nintendo is doomed!"  Remember the #1 rule for Nintendo: the better they do, the more they are doomed.



Probably never, Japan is not enough to carry Nintendo sales vs Sony in europe and rest of the world



Azhraell said:
Probably never, Japan is not enough to carry Nintendo sales vs Sony in europe and rest of the world

Japan alone no, America+Japan yes.

I don't think people realize how big of a lead Switch has over PS4 in America...

Last edited by Ryng - on 17 June 2020

2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 11m, XB1 4m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, 9m PS4 and 3m XB1, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.