Switch is never going to top PS4...., is never going to be the best selling Nintendo hardware ever....., it's probably never going to be even the best Nintendo "homeconsole" sold ever either....
Some of you keep living in a world of dreams when it comes to Switch sales....I was realistic during 2018 (and i was right in my predictions) and i left myself been fooled by some of you during 2019 thinking Switch was going to surpass 20M in 2019 and in the end it was a mistake. Time to go back to my senses in 2020.
Switch is going to sell less this year than in 2019. It's going to be affected by next gen console launches from November and December this year and so on (and i don' care what people said even if is someone of Nintendo, it will affect the console in one way or another), and it's still a question if it's going to reach 100M lifetime.
Most of the most iconic Nintendo gaming franchises have already launched in the console. The best years of the console library are probably already behind. Without heavy 3rd party support it's going to be impossible to keep the pace. And i don't expect any heavy price cuts either.
We already know Switch sold to consumers this (rounding numbers, it's not 100% accurate numbers, but to get a general idea):
13M by the end of 2017
29M by the end of 2018 (around 16M sold during 2018)
48M by the end of 2019 (around 19M sold during 2019)
And I expect something like this from next few years:
65M by the end of 2020 (around 17M sold during 2020)
77M by the end of 2021 (around 12M sold during 2021)
87M by the end of 2022 (around 10M sold during 2022)
95M by the end of 2023 (around 8M sold during 2023)
Maybe some millions more after that, but who knows if enough to reach 100M lifetime.
This is my optimistic prediction (i considered Switch selling around 85-90M before Lite was announced, but i guess a 100$ cheaper version will help add 10M sales more), in fact, because i won't be surprised if it drops even more after 2020. In conclusion, if it reaches 100M lifetime i will be surprised and i repeat again and again: it will be a monumental success considering the console sold at a higher price than Wii and had barely any 3rd party AAA support. But by that time we will already know that PS4 sold around 125-130M lifetime, so no..., is not going to outsell PS4, sorry.
Wii was around 57M units sold to consumers after 36 months (and its 36th month is end of November 2009, because if we count the gap after 37 or 38 months, the gap is even greater). Switch is going to be around what? 52M?. The real question still is if Switch is going to outsell Wii instead. People should not aim that high yet because Switch hasn't proved yet that it can still sell a lot after year 3-4 of the console life, and except NDS, any Nintendo console has done that. There's nothing pointing out that Switch will avoid dropping in sales like Wii or 3DS did..., so we should be cautious about such predictions for Switch.
But 2020 is going to give us a very definitive idea of what the future holds up for Switch, for sales and its games, so we'll see....