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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 24 9.02%
 
First half of 2023 21 7.89%
 
Second half of 2023 32 12.03%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.64%
 
Second half of 2024 16 6.02%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.63%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.88%
 
Later than above 2 0.75%
 
Never 144 54.14%
 
Total:266
Eagle367 said:
colafitte said:

Switch is never going to top PS4...., is never going to be the best selling Nintendo hardware ever....., it's probably never going to be even the best Nintendo "homeconsole"  sold ever either....

Some of you keep living in a world of dreams when it comes to Switch sales....I was realistic during 2018 (and i was right in my predictions) and i left myself been fooled by some of you during 2019 thinking Switch was going to surpass 20M in 2019 and in the end it was a mistake. Time to go back to my senses in 2020.

Switch is going to sell less this year than in 2019. It's going to be affected by next gen console launches from November and December this year and so on (and i don' care what people said even if is someone of Nintendo, it will affect the console in one way or another), and it's still a question if it's going to reach 100M lifetime.

Most of the most iconic Nintendo gaming franchises have already launched in the console. The best years of the console library are probably already behind. Without heavy 3rd party support it's going to be impossible to keep the pace. And i don't expect any heavy price cuts either.

We already know Switch sold to consumers this (rounding numbers, it's not 100% accurate numbers, but to get a general idea):

13M by the end of 2017

29M by the end of 2018 (around 16M sold during 2018)

48M by the end of 2019 (around 19M sold during 2019)

And I expect something like this from next few years:

65M by the end of 2020 (around 17M sold during 2020)

77M by the end of 2021 (around 12M sold during 2021)

87M by the end of 2022 (around 10M sold during 2022)

95M by the end of 2023 (around 8M sold during 2023)

Maybe some millions more after that, but who knows if enough to reach 100M lifetime.

This is my optimistic prediction (i considered Switch selling around 85-90M before Lite was announced, but i guess a 100$ cheaper version will help add 10M sales more), in fact, because i won't be surprised if it drops even more after 2020. In conclusion, if it reaches 100M lifetime i will be surprised and i repeat again and again: it will be a monumental success considering the console sold at a higher price than Wii and had barely any 3rd party AAA support. But by that time we will already know that PS4 sold around 125-130M lifetime, so no..., is not going to outsell PS4, sorry.

Wii was around 57M units sold to consumers after 36 months (and its 36th month is end of November 2009, because if we count the gap after 37 or 38 months, the gap is even greater). Switch is going to be around what? 52M?. The real question still is if Switch is going to outsell Wii instead. People should not aim that high yet because Switch hasn't proved yet that it can still sell a lot after year 3-4 of the console life, and except NDS, any Nintendo console has done that. There's nothing pointing out that Switch will avoid dropping in sales like Wii or 3DS did..., so we should be cautious about such predictions for Switch.

But 2020 is going to give us a very definitive idea of what the future holds up for Switch, for sales and its games, so we'll see....

The more you read, the funnier it gets

That's gold, but this one specific part is always bothering me till this day " Most of the most iconic Nintendo gaming franchises have already launched in the console " why do these people keep pointing at this shit year after year still is a mystery to me. Did they think all of those titles will stop selling or something?


Last edited by LGBTDBZBBQ - on 10 January 2021

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Ryotsu said:

Never

What do you think will be the lifetime totals for each system?



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Illusion said:

I agree with most of the recent analysis. I am sure if this poll could be retaken today, over 80% of voters would say that the Switch will eventually outsell the PS4. If Sony were serious about pushing PS4 sales they should have cut the price by now. Once we get to January, the PS4 will probably be struggling to break 50k per week and will probably flat-line by the end of the 2021: the console has lost its momentum. If left without another price cut, the PS4 will not even make it to 120M units. The Switch, on the other hand, is already on track to easily sell 120M units and that is assuming no price-cut, pro-model or major new releases such as BotW2 that will generate massive hype. I also do not see Nintendo being as eager to pull the plug on the Switch as they were back in the Wii days. Nintendo understands the risk of releasing new platforms and after the Wii U I doubt that they are going to want to push out a totally new console until they have to. It is more likely that they will push out faster or lower cost revisions of the Switch like they did with the 3DS. Keep in mind that Nintendo has only a single platform now and so the risk is a lot bigger with quickly killing their console and releasing something totally new.  Also, we don't even have a codename for Nintendo's new console which usually comes 2-3 years before launch which tells me that Nintendo is nowhere near done with the Switch.  It will easily pass 120M and can probably even get to 150M when you consider that folks may want to re-buy the faster models.

I'm sure it'd be the majority now but I'm not sure it'd be as high as over 80% yet since there's still a chunk of people who believe the Switch's sales are gonna start rapidly declining somehow. I wouldn't be surprised if it takes till 2022 for it to get that widely agreed upon.



LGBTDBZBBQ said:
Eagle367 said:

The more you read, the funnier it gets

That's gold, but this one specific part is always bothering me till this day " Most of the most iconic Nintendo gaming franchises have already launched in the console " why do these people keep pointing at this shit year after year still is a mystery to me. Did they think all of those titles will stop selling or something?

I remember people saying this crap as far back as 2017, that "they've already used Mario, Zelda, Splatoon and Mario Kart, so their big guns are used up and it's only gonna go downhill from here."

Last edited by curl-6 - on 11 January 2021

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Everyone arguing about Switch outselling PS4 at some point in the future...

Meanwhile at Nintendo:
Be ready for Xenoblade Chronicles 3, Xenoblade X DE, Monolith Soft's NewProject, Zelda BotW2, Metroid Prime Trilogy HD, Metroid Prime 4, Monster Hunter Rise, Pokemon 2022, Fire Emblem 2023, Earthbound/Mother Trilogy (Remaster), Mother 4, Golden Sun Switch, Mario Kart 9, New Mario 2022/2023, N64 &/or GB Online, New Donkey Kong Country, New Kirby's Core Game, New Wario Ware, Smash Ultimate Fighter Pass 3, Punch Out Switch, Pikmin 4, Kid Icarus Switch, Star Fox Switch, Racing Excite Game, Splatoon 3, Bayonetta 3, Pokemon Snap Switch, New Mario Strikers, Super Mario Party 2, F-Zero Switch, Third party Games, Mario RPG 2...



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When this thread was made Sony still had the possibility to make it never happen and allow PS4 to outsell NS lifetime.
But now NS took off at ludicrous speed and at the same time Sony hasn't made yet the price cut PS4 really needed to keep on selling enough, so sales plummeted.
Sony could cut price now, but at this point most probably it could just delay the moment NS will outsell PS4. Unless Ninty stop making it too early, NS should reach PS4 not later than 2024.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Alby_da_Wolf said:

When this thread was made Sony still had the possibility to make it never happen and allow PS4 to outsell NS lifetime.
But now NS took off at ludicrous speed and at the same time Sony hasn't made yet the price cut PS4 really needed to keep on selling enough, so sales plummeted.
Sony could cut price now, but at this point most probably it could just delay the moment NS will outsell PS4. Unless Ninty stop making it too early, NS should reach PS4 not later than 2024.

At the current point of time we still don't know the sales potential or longevity of Switch, yet it's not crazy to think it could get within reach, if not outright match the highest selling systems ever. We can't even say without some reasonable doubt that 2020 will be it's peak sales year.

Are you implying the same sales potential was feasible for PS4 if Sony wanted it, even though it's currently falling further behind the Switch launch-aligned? Even though the Switch is still yet to have a single price cut?



Shaunodon said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:

When this thread was made Sony still had the possibility to make it never happen and allow PS4 to outsell NS lifetime.
But now NS took off at ludicrous speed and at the same time Sony hasn't made yet the price cut PS4 really needed to keep on selling enough, so sales plummeted.
Sony could cut price now, but at this point most probably it could just delay the moment NS will outsell PS4. Unless Ninty stop making it too early, NS should reach PS4 not later than 2024.

At the current point of time we still don't know the sales potential or longevity of Switch, yet it's not crazy to think it could get within reach, if not outright match the highest selling systems ever. We can't even say without some reasonable doubt that 2020 will be it's peak sales year.

Are you implying the same sales potential was feasible for PS4 if Sony wanted it, even though it's currently falling further behind the Switch launch-aligned? Even though the Switch is still yet to have a single price cut?

At the beginning of last year current NS yearly peak was unthinkable, although already predicted to be very high, while at the same time PS4 sales hadn't plummeted yet, and on top of this Sony is well known to give Playstations extremely long lifecycles, quite longer than most Ninty ones, except Super NES (and NES in Japan), with many years of sales also after next gen launch, so keeping the lead was still possible even never reaching NS yearly peak. Now not anymore, even if it will be supported for another 3 or even 4 years, Sony just burnt the last possible big Xmas sales keeping a price that doesn't make sense anymore for last gen consoles place in the market after latest gen launch, and definitively put PS4 in a marginal sunset boulevard. Even if a dramatic price cut were to give PS4 a bigger Xmas 2021 than 2020 underwhelming one, it won't be enough to make up for it, the gaussian-like descending sales curve will remain the same, but with the BF & Xmas 2020 part chopped below the same period of 2021.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Saw it as unlikely before but Animal Crossing reinforced by the lockdown changed the trajectory for the system imo.

Also it seems sony are not intending to continue pushing the PS4 but I'm not sure if that story is over yet. PS5 is too expensive and there are way too many games coming to PS4 in the next 2 years for Sony to not use it an entry point to the playstation echo system. I think we will still see a PS4 price cut and probably a new model to go along with it. from sonys perspective there is really no hurry and the focus during the PS5's launch year should rightly be the PS5.

Its clear Switch will reach 100m in the next 12months, so it will probably pass Playstation 4 early 2023 at this rate. A year or so later if sony care to give PS4 am aggressive push



With Sony already struggling to meet demand for PS5, it makes sense for them to switch over their finite production capacity to their new system instead of prolonging the PS4. We're already seeing this with the discontinuation of all but one model in Japan.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.