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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 31 10.95%
 
First half of 2023 24 8.48%
 
Second half of 2023 35 12.37%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.30%
 
Second half of 2024 16 5.65%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.47%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.77%
 
Later than above 2 0.71%
 
Never 148 52.30%
 
Total:283

If it does happen either 2023 or 2024. I find it funny when long threads like this that keep getting bumped are created by a user that has been banned.



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Switch timeline from the doom of the console to the possibility of surpassing PS4
1. U̶n̶d̶e̶r̶p̶o̶w̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ ̶h̶a̶r̶d̶w̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶c̶o̶m̶p̶a̶r̶i̶s̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶P̶S̶4̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶X̶B̶O̶
2. T̶o̶o̶ ̶e̶x̶p̶e̶n̶s̶i̶v̶e̶ ̶
3. N̶o̶ ̶3̶r̶d̶ ̶p̶a̶r̶t̶y̶ ̶s̶u̶p̶p̶o̶r̶t̶s̶
4. W̶i̶i̶U̶ ̶p̶o̶r̶t̶s̶(̶M̶K̶8̶D̶,̶ ̶N̶S̶M̶B̶U̶D̶,̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶e̶t̶c̶)̶ ̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶ ̶g̶o̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶p̶
5. A̶f̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶W̶i̶i̶U̶ ̶o̶w̶n̶e̶r̶s̶ ̶b̶o̶u̶g̶h̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶y̶s̶t̶e̶m̶ ̶N̶i̶n̶t̶e̶n̶d̶o̶ ̶S̶w̶i̶t̶c̶h̶ ̶s̶a̶l̶e̶s̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶s̶l̶o̶w̶ ̶d̶o̶w̶n̶
6. T̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶b̶l̶e̶w̶ ̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶b̶i̶g̶ ̶g̶a̶m̶e̶s̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶f̶i̶r̶s̶t̶ ̶y̶e̶a̶r̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶y̶s̶t̶e̶m̶(̶B̶O̶T̶W̶,̶ ̶M̶K̶8̶D̶,̶ ̶S̶p̶l̶a̶t̶o̶o̶n̶ ̶2̶,̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶S̶M̶O̶)̶ ̶r̶i̶p̶ ̶2̶0̶1̶8̶
7. N̶i̶n̶t̶e̶n̶d̶o̶ ̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶h̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶2̶0̶1̶9̶ ̶a̶f̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶r̶e̶l̶e̶a̶s̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶h̶e̶a̶v̶y̶ ̶h̶i̶t̶t̶e̶r̶s̶ ̶l̶i̶k̶e̶ ̶S̶m̶a̶s̶h̶ ̶B̶r̶o̶s̶ ̶U̶l̶t̶i̶m̶a̶t̶e̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶P̶o̶k̶e̶m̶o̶n̶ ̶L̶e̶t̶'̶s̶ ̶G̶o̶ ̶P̶/̶E̶
8. N̶i̶n̶t̶e̶n̶d̶o̶ ̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶h̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶2̶0̶2̶0̶ ̶a̶f̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶r̶e̶l̶e̶a̶s̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶l̶a̶s̶t̶ ̶h̶e̶a̶v̶y̶ ̶h̶i̶t̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶y̶s̶t̶e̶m̶ ̶"̶P̶o̶k̶e̶m̶o̶n̶ ̶S̶w̶S̶h̶"̶
9. N̶i̶n̶t̶e̶n̶d̶o̶ ̶a̶l̶r̶e̶a̶d̶y̶ ̶r̶e̶l̶e̶a̶s̶e̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶l̶a̶s̶t̶ ̶h̶e̶a̶v̶y̶ ̶h̶i̶t̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶A̶n̶i̶m̶a̶l̶ ̶C̶r̶o̶s̶s̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶a̶l̶e̶s̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶i̶m̶p̶a̶c̶t̶e̶d̶ ̶g̶r̶e̶a̶t̶l̶y̶ ̶b̶y̶ ̶N̶e̶x̶t̶ ̶G̶e̶n̶ ̶C̶o̶n̶s̶o̶l̶e̶s̶

Nintendo has a lot of cards to play this time in order to maintain the sales momentum
1. Price Drop
2. New SKU
3. Aggressive holidays promotions
4. Upcoming 1st party 10 million and above sellers(BOTW2, 3d Mario, 2d Mario, Tomogachi, Next Remake and Mainline Pokemon, and etc)
5. Animal Crossing monstrous leg and RFA stock
6. Evergreen monsters like BOTW, MK8D, SMO, and SSBU still selling wonderfully
7. Price reduction of old first party games



NEVER!

The upcoming economic crash will eat people's disposable income to travel and game, and handhelds will tank. =P



LGBTDBZBBQ said:
Switch timeline from the doom of the console to the possibility of surpassing PS4
1. U̶n̶d̶e̶r̶p̶o̶w̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ ̶h̶a̶r̶d̶w̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶c̶o̶m̶p̶a̶r̶i̶s̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶P̶S̶4̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶X̶B̶O̶
2. T̶o̶o̶ ̶e̶x̶p̶e̶n̶s̶i̶v̶e̶ ̶
3. N̶o̶ ̶3̶r̶d̶ ̶p̶a̶r̶t̶y̶ ̶s̶u̶p̶p̶o̶r̶t̶s̶
4. W̶i̶i̶U̶ ̶p̶o̶r̶t̶s̶(̶M̶K̶8̶D̶,̶ ̶N̶S̶M̶B̶U̶D̶,̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶e̶t̶c̶)̶ ̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶ ̶g̶o̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶p̶
5. A̶f̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶W̶i̶i̶U̶ ̶o̶w̶n̶e̶r̶s̶ ̶b̶o̶u̶g̶h̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶y̶s̶t̶e̶m̶ ̶N̶i̶n̶t̶e̶n̶d̶o̶ ̶S̶w̶i̶t̶c̶h̶ ̶s̶a̶l̶e̶s̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶s̶l̶o̶w̶ ̶d̶o̶w̶n̶
6. T̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶b̶l̶e̶w̶ ̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶b̶i̶g̶ ̶g̶a̶m̶e̶s̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶f̶i̶r̶s̶t̶ ̶y̶e̶a̶r̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶y̶s̶t̶e̶m̶(̶B̶O̶T̶W̶,̶ ̶M̶K̶8̶D̶,̶ ̶S̶p̶l̶a̶t̶o̶o̶n̶ ̶2̶,̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶S̶M̶O̶)̶ ̶r̶i̶p̶ ̶2̶0̶1̶8̶
7. N̶i̶n̶t̶e̶n̶d̶o̶ ̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶h̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶2̶0̶1̶9̶ ̶a̶f̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶r̶e̶l̶e̶a̶s̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶h̶e̶a̶v̶y̶ ̶h̶i̶t̶t̶e̶r̶s̶ ̶l̶i̶k̶e̶ ̶S̶m̶a̶s̶h̶ ̶B̶r̶o̶s̶ ̶U̶l̶t̶i̶m̶a̶t̶e̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶P̶o̶k̶e̶m̶o̶n̶ ̶L̶e̶t̶'̶s̶ ̶G̶o̶ ̶P̶/̶E̶
8. N̶i̶n̶t̶e̶n̶d̶o̶ ̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶h̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶2̶0̶2̶0̶ ̶a̶f̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶r̶e̶l̶e̶a̶s̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶l̶a̶s̶t̶ ̶h̶e̶a̶v̶y̶ ̶h̶i̶t̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶y̶s̶t̶e̶m̶ ̶"̶P̶o̶k̶e̶m̶o̶n̶ ̶S̶w̶S̶h̶"̶
9. N̶i̶n̶t̶e̶n̶d̶o̶ ̶a̶l̶r̶e̶a̶d̶y̶ ̶r̶e̶l̶e̶a̶s̶e̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶l̶a̶s̶t̶ ̶h̶e̶a̶v̶y̶ ̶h̶i̶t̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶A̶n̶i̶m̶a̶l̶ ̶C̶r̶o̶s̶s̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶a̶l̶e̶s̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶i̶m̶p̶a̶c̶t̶e̶d̶ ̶g̶r̶e̶a̶t̶l̶y̶ ̶b̶y̶ ̶N̶e̶x̶t̶ ̶G̶e̶n̶ ̶C̶o̶n̶s̶o̶l̶e̶s̶

Nintendo has a lot of cards to play this time in order to maintain the sales momentum
1. Price Drop
2. New SKU
3. Aggressive holidays promotions
4. Upcoming 1st party 10 million and above sellers(BOTW2, 3d Mario, 2d Mario, Tomogachi, Next Remake and Mainline Pokemon, and etc)
5. Animal Crossing monstrous leg and RFA stock
6. Evergreen monsters like BOTW, MK8D, SMO, and SSBU still selling wonderfully
7. Price reduction of old first party games

Yeah this is on point. Nintendo has yet to do anything to increase Switch sales other than launch the Lite.

Like this guy says, between a couple future price drops, a premium model probably coming out in a year, actually having holiday promotions/discounts which they pretty much haven't even done yet, huge mega selling games still to come, AC (and in Japan RFA) continuing to push sales aggressively, an amazing lineup of existing evergreens, and at some point a Nintendo Selects group of $30 first party games, plus let's not mention that 3rd party releases on the Switch are increasing each year, Nintendo has plenty of levers to pull to keep sales high for years to come.

In terms of system selling (10+ million) first party games, yeah there is BotW2, possibly another 3D Mario, a first brand new 2D Mario at some point, one or two more Pokemon games, as quoted above. But then there is also the rumored Mario Collection that would certainly be a 10+ million selling game. I would say a 3D World port but if there's two new 3D Mario games, a 3D Mario Collection, Mario Maker 2, 2D Mario port, and a brand new 2D Mario game, I'm not sure a 3D World port would find enough room to hit 10 million sales, but its possible. Also it could be possible Nintendo does a Zelda Collection for Zelda's 35th anniversary next year which could very likely also hit 10 million sales. Then there's the fact that MK8, AC, and Smash will all sell another 10 million from here on out, and BotW might even as well so you could even sorta count those as future 10+ million sellers just from future sales. It's also possible something like a new MH game is released on the Switch that could sell 10 million. Also possible Nintendo comes out with a couple other games that reach 10 million that we aren't even thinking about, including something like a Switch Sports or a second kart-style racing game the way N64 had both DKR and MK. And of course there's the possibility (and hopefully reality) of a couple more Ring Fit games, which perhaps individually might not do 10 million but all together a Ring Fit series could easily blow past another 10 million in sales, beyond what RFA has already done.

So lots and lots of possible future mega selling games to continue to drive adoption of the Switch, plus all those other things.



In the same line of thought, while the Switch may be getting a revision, nothing stops Nintendo from launching a new "launch" wave of games that would normally be destined for a new console. A new Matio Kart, a new Mario, a new Zelda, a new Metroid, a new Pokemon, maybe even a new Smash. As it stands, Nintendo really has no obligation for a generational hardware upgrade or, if hey do, it will most likely be back and forward compatible, meaning that a soft launch could happen within the life of the Switch, giving it an abnormally long life with monster software sales. Then, the hardware sales might follow to a lesser extent than software, but still in such a way that the Switch could break the usual barrier of a normal system life, and its associated hardware sales.

At the same time, the Switch is outselling the PS4 2 to 1 globally right now, meaning that while it's beasting in japan, it is also doing very well internationally, and so has a very strong likelihood of beating the PS4 by the end of its run.



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src said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

This post lacks context, and thus leads you to wrong conclusions.

Switch is trailing the 3DS in Japan... but the advantage of the 3DS is shrinking fast, as the latter built it's advantage on a huge pricecut and a new model, and those effects are already over and 3DS weekly sales dropping down hard while the Switch is gaining new heights and reaching new horizons. Switch will overtake the 3DS launch aligned next year, as this year is the last one the 3DS had somewhat decent sales in Japan (~3.1M), which should be barely enough to keep the Switch at bay with the lead it had built up in the past. But next year the 3DS stands no chance as the sales drop down to 2.1M, less than the Switch sold Year-to-date.

Switch is also a global console. You might be surprised, but if you go to Charts in the header and look up Platform Totals, you'll find that the Switch is already on the 9th spot there. While the PS4 will most probably win this category over the Switch, the lead should end up being less than 5M and is more than cancelled out bei either North America or Japan.

This leaves us with Europe, and the PS4 will need to build it's lead there. But the Switch, while not nearly selling as well as the PS4 over there, is still doing quite decent and should sell at least as well as the PS3 or Wii did.

All this means that the advantage in Europe will be about 20M (give or take) and up to 5M in RoW. And 25M should be manageable with US and Japan unless the Switch crashes down like the Wii did, but the reasons why the Wii crashed are not given for the Switch.

SW is 1.8 million behind 3DS at this moment in time. SW is not gaining new heights in terms of hardware, it still hasn't beat the 3DS peak of 5.5 million.

Your data is also unreliable. Refer to official data from the actual manufacturers.

PS4 sellthrough in US + Japan = 36 + 9 million  = 45 million. Thats 45/110 = 41%

NSW sellthrough US + Japan = 35.56 million per their FY report = 35.56/55.77 = 64%

To even compare PS4's global reach compared to SW is incorrect. Not to mention PS4 still has not got a price cut as well.

1.1M left and the chance to outsell PS4 is very High in Worldwide without any price cut.


Bofferbrauer2 said:
Looks like the number of believers is growing. End of January, 66.66% said never, now it's down to 64.88%

Bofferbrauer2 said:
3 Months later, the number of disbelievers jumped up slightly again, to 65.12% with 112 saying never, even though the chances of it happening are climbing with every month.

And now, we're at 63.68%

So let's check the evolution here:

January 66.66% Change:
March 64.88% -1.78
June 65.12% +0.24
September 63.68% -1.44

So yeah the trend is clear here, more and more people believe that the Switch can do it.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 06 September 2020

PS4 pretty much already peaked, It probably gonna hit 115m but not much more. Switch on the other hand is doing DS numbers, so it could sell 150m units lifetime, and it only needs 120m to beat PS4. So yeah, unless the sales tank suddenly, it's gonna beat PS4 easy.



Won't the clock reset once the rumored Switch Pro releases and plays games you can't play on the OG Switch? I don't think the Switch Lite should be grouped in with the OG Switch if one is a home console hybrid and the other a handheld only (that a hand full of OG Switch games can't even be played on). I think the difference with those and the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X was that there wasn't a single game you couldn't play on the upgrades as on the original models.

Last edited by Zombie9ers - on 11 September 2020

Zombie9ers said:

Won't the clock reset once the rumored Switch Pro releases and plays games you can't play on the OG Switch? I don't think the Switch Lite should be grouped in with the OG Switch if one is a home console hybrid and the other a handheld only (that a hand full of OG Switch games can't even be played on). I think the difference with those and the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X was that there wasn't a single game you couldn't play on the upgrades as on the original models.

There are already too many examples of combining sales despite no full 100% compatibility between different models of the same platform to suddenly make a special exception for Switch. Likewise, sales of the PS5 and PS5 DE will be combined in the future, the same goes for XSX and XSS.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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