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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 31 10.92%
 
First half of 2023 24 8.45%
 
Second half of 2023 35 12.32%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.28%
 
Second half of 2024 16 5.63%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.46%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.76%
 
Later than above 2 0.70%
 
Never 149 52.46%
 
Total:284

I've waited to post in this thread. Mainly because I won't be answering the original question, but also as time has gone on and some things have changed it has been more difficult to put to words where I think the market has been in the past, where it is, and where it will be going in the short and long term. People, I think, are going to be surprised/disappointed with the latter. It is just my opinion though.

Ok, so I am going to kinda sorta answer the question, but it's not quite so simple as saying yes/no based on normal console to console. I think there is a real chance that the Switch, in all its current and future incarnations, does cross 130/140 million, which is where I think it will have to ultimately be in order to beat the PS4 by the time the PS4 halts sales. I think the long tail of PS4 sales, especially after a price drop, will continue to see a couple million a year after the PS5 goes on sell.

The brilliant move by Nintendo to combine console + handheld made it decisively relevant to people, other than me. It stemmed the flow of phones and tablets further and further tamping down on Nintendo's handheld business. Software wise they are no longer stretched thin between two different platforms, leaving long periods of time they don't have 1st party games coming out for one or the other or both. The momentum behind the Switch seems to be steady and growing. They don't get every 3rd party game, but they seem to get enough that Switch only users currently don't necessarily have to own a second console if they want some of those.

However, this brings me to a more broader topic. The Future. XBOXSX/XBOXSS and PS5/PS5DE heavier hitter 3rd party titles will invariably either not go to the Switch or will be such bad ports people may feel compelled to just go ahead and buy the XBOXSS or even perhaps PS5DE (though unless it's as cheap as the XBOXSS, I doubt it) or they may try to wait for Switch Pro/Switch 2.

Also, given where XBOX is going, we can clearly see Microsoft pushing for device agnostic, pure digital gaming. Will this next gen be where the trend towards purely digital start to clearly rear its head? Will the generation after that not even have physical media for the XBOX or Playstation? How many people will buy Game Pass Ultimate and just play the 100 games on offer? What will SONY's full response and success be to this?

If you can very cheaply just buy a sub to Game Pass and payment plan the cheap console itself, why NOT buy an XBOX to play non Nintendo games? Or if SONY matches, sub to whatever SONY offers.

I don't know if Microsoft or SONY will ever not sell a console, for those of us who specifically want one, but there will be a time when more gamers are playing purely in the cloud rather than ON the actual console. It seems to me that Nintendo will be the last holdout selling a dedicated device that takes physical media. Its a huge open question on how wide the divide in 3rd party games that scenario will bring.  How big will Nintendo's market be then?

To end this mind spill. I will say that the future of gaming seems ever murky. The Switch will continue its wild success. Beyond that I don't know where the plateau will be for Nintendo.

Last edited by dharh - on 11 September 2020

A warrior keeps death on the mind from the moment of their first breath to the moment of their last.



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I feel like PS4 post-life sales won't be as high as I was expecting. PS4 is already dead in Japan, and suddenly looking much weaker in America and Europe as of late. This might just have to do more with Sony switching over to PS5 production. But if they aren't gonna bother making much PS4's after PS5 comes out, I think PS4 might only just scoot by 120 million rather than finish at the 130 million I had been thinking it'd do. If this is the case and PS4 doesn't even have 10 million more sales in it from this point on because Sony wants to purely focus on PS5, then Switch will very likely to beat PS4 since Switch is likely to do 125-135 million.



Zombie9ers said:

Won't the clock reset once the rumored Switch Pro releases and plays games you can't play on the OG Switch? I don't think the Switch Lite should be grouped in with the OG Switch if one is a home console hybrid and the other a handheld only (that a hand full of OG Switch games can't even be played on). I think the difference with those and the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X was that there wasn't a single game you couldn't play on the upgrades as on the original models.

Goal post is now moving, keep it coming boys. 



colafitte said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
If I've said it once, I've said it a hundred times. Switch is going to become the top selling system of all time. In a few years people will look back and see that 2017-2018 was really Switch's slow mode. I just really started to get going in 2019 and it's still accelerating. It's going to easily outsell the PS4 in a few years and then just keep going.

Switch is never going to top PS4...., is never going to be the best selling Nintendo hardware ever....., it's probably never going to be even the best Nintendo "homeconsole"  sold ever either....

Some of you keep living in a world of dreams when it comes to Switch sales....I was realistic during 2018 (and i was right in my predictions) and i left myself been fooled by some of you during 2019 thinking Switch was going to surpass 20M in 2019 and in the end it was a mistake. Time to go back to my senses in 2020.

Switch is going to sell less this year than in 2019. It's going to be affected by next gen console launches from November and December this year and so on (and i don' care what people said even if is someone of Nintendo, it will affect the console in one way or another), and it's still a question if it's going to reach 100M lifetime.

Most of the most iconic Nintendo gaming franchises have already launched in the console. The best years of the console library are probably already behind. Without heavy 3rd party support it's going to be impossible to keep the pace. And i don't expect any heavy price cuts either.

We already know Switch sold to consumers this (rounding numbers, it's not 100% accurate numbers, but to get a general idea):

13M by the end of 2017

29M by the end of 2018 (around 16M sold during 2018)

48M by the end of 2019 (around 19M sold during 2019)

And I expect something like this from next few years:

65M by the end of 2020 (around 17M sold during 2020)

77M by the end of 2021 (around 12M sold during 2021)

87M by the end of 2022 (around 10M sold during 2022)

95M by the end of 2023 (around 8M sold during 2023)

Maybe some millions more after that, but who knows if enough to reach 100M lifetime.

This is my optimistic prediction (i considered Switch selling around 85-90M before Lite was announced, but i guess a 100$ cheaper version will help add 10M sales more), in fact, because i won't be surprised if it drops even more after 2020. In conclusion, if it reaches 100M lifetime i will be surprised and i repeat again and again: it will be a monumental success considering the console sold at a higher price than Wii and had barely any 3rd party AAA support. But by that time we will already know that PS4 sold around 125-130M lifetime, so no..., is not going to outsell PS4, sorry.

Wii was around 57M units sold to consumers after 36 months (and its 36th month is end of November 2009, because if we count the gap after 37 or 38 months, the gap is even greater). Switch is going to be around what? 52M?. The real question still is if Switch is going to outsell Wii instead. People should not aim that high yet because Switch hasn't proved yet that it can still sell a lot after year 3-4 of the console life, and except NDS, any Nintendo console has done that. There's nothing pointing out that Switch will avoid dropping in sales like Wii or 3DS did..., so we should be cautious about such predictions for Switch.

But 2020 is going to give us a very definitive idea of what the future holds up for Switch, for sales and its games, so we'll see....

I know you said you are abandoning the site but on the off chance you ever decide to look here again....lol



Zombie9ers said:

Won't the clock reset once the rumored Switch Pro releases and plays games you can't play on the OG Switch? I don't think the Switch Lite should be grouped in with the OG Switch if one is a home console hybrid and the other a handheld only (that a hand full of OG Switch games can't even be played on). I think the difference with those and the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X was that there wasn't a single game you couldn't play on the upgrades as on the original models.



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All of a sudden this feat isn't as unlikely as some thought.



I didn't think that switch could dver reach PS4 sales but they way PS4 is slowing down might make it possible.



2022 imo.

round numbers
2017 - 15 million / 15 million
2018 - 17 million / 32 million
2019 - 20 million / 52 million
2020 - 30 million / 82 million
2021 - 30 million / 112 million
2022 - 22 million / 134 million

PS4 will sell 125 million lifetime



Ryng said:
2022 imo.

round numbers
2017 - 15 million / 15 million
2018 - 17 million / 32 million
2019 - 20 million / 52 million
2020 - 30 million / 82 million
2021 - 30 million / 112 million
2022 - 22 million / 134 million

PS4 will sell 125 million lifetime

You are optimistic about 2021, but then see a cliff in 2022. Then again, even a progression of 26m in 2021 and 22m in 2022 would do the trick to pass the PS4 during 2022.

The poll in this thread didn't look surprising (63% never) until I checked the date of the original post again. This is a 2020 thread, so the information that Switch was outpacing the PS4 through three years was already a given, including Switch's lead growing each year. It was pre-COVID though, so that's a mitigating factor, at least for those who predicted a timeframe instead of saying "never."

While I did say "second half of 2024" in my initial response to this thread, the sales progression I had in mind is totally outdated.

2019 - 48m LTD
2020 - 69m
2021 - 88m
2022 - 105m
2023 - 120m
2024 - 131m

With a projected finish of the PS4 in the high 120s, it would have taken until the second half of 2024.

Now I am expecting something like this:

2019 - 48m LTD
2020 - 76m
2021 - 101m
2022 - 123m
2023 - 141m

So it would happen during the first half of 2023. It's not impossible to occur by the end of 2022, but a lot of things would have come together for that and I don't trust Nintendo to make all the best decisions.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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