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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?


When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 24 9.02%
First half of 2023 21 7.89%
Second half of 2023 32 12.03%
First half of 2024 15 5.64%
Second half of 2024 16 6.02%
First half of 2025 7 2.63%
Second half of 2025 5 1.88%
Later than above 2 0.75%
Never 144 54.14%


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PS4 sales slowed down considerably, faster than people anticipated. The Switch on the other hand still has to show its final form.

Literally next year.

OTBWY said:

PS4 sales slowed down considerably, faster than people anticipated. The Switch on the other hand still has to show its final form.

Yeah, Switch is pulling a Freezer and PS4 is a Cell who just coughed out C18 PS5

BlackBeauty said:

Literally next year.

You mean 2022 with that, right?

2022 should be quite possible. I originally expected 2024, but that was one year ago and we were not expecting the Switch having another form up their sleeve or the PS4 faltering so fast last Fall. I am also expecting late 2022 now, and if the Switch doesn't manage to do that then most probably just by a hair and will overtake the PS4 early 2023 then.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 09 January 2021

Well, Switch shows no signs of slowing down, and will likely have a hardware revision and a lot of software to drive sales over the next two years. Provided there isn’t significant should surpass PS4 by the end of 2023. Sooner if the PS4 is unable to move another 10 million units. It should surpass where PS4 currently is by the end of 2022. I certainly think it’s possible.

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colafitte said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
If I've said it once, I've said it a hundred times. Switch is going to become the top selling system of all time. In a few years people will look back and see that 2017-2018 was really Switch's slow mode. I just really started to get going in 2019 and it's still accelerating. It's going to easily outsell the PS4 in a few years and then just keep going.

Switch is never going to top PS4...., is never going to be the best selling Nintendo hardware ever....., it's probably never going to be even the best Nintendo "homeconsole"  sold ever either....

Some of you keep living in a world of dreams when it comes to Switch sales....I was realistic during 2018 (and i was right in my predictions) and i left myself been fooled by some of you during 2019 thinking Switch was going to surpass 20M in 2019 and in the end it was a mistake. Time to go back to my senses in 2020.

Switch is going to sell less this year than in 2019. It's going to be affected by next gen console launches from November and December this year and so on (and i don' care what people said even if is someone of Nintendo, it will affect the console in one way or another), and it's still a question if it's going to reach 100M lifetime.

Most of the most iconic Nintendo gaming franchises have already launched in the console. The best years of the console library are probably already behind. Without heavy 3rd party support it's going to be impossible to keep the pace. And i don't expect any heavy price cuts either.

We already know Switch sold to consumers this (rounding numbers, it's not 100% accurate numbers, but to get a general idea):

13M by the end of 2017

29M by the end of 2018 (around 16M sold during 2018)

48M by the end of 2019 (around 19M sold during 2019)

And I expect something like this from next few years:

65M by the end of 2020 (around 17M sold during 2020)

77M by the end of 2021 (around 12M sold during 2021)

87M by the end of 2022 (around 10M sold during 2022)

95M by the end of 2023 (around 8M sold during 2023)

Maybe some millions more after that, but who knows if enough to reach 100M lifetime.

This is my optimistic prediction (i considered Switch selling around 85-90M before Lite was announced, but i guess a 100$ cheaper version will help add 10M sales more), in fact, because i won't be surprised if it drops even more after 2020. In conclusion, if it reaches 100M lifetime i will be surprised and i repeat again and again: it will be a monumental success considering the console sold at a higher price than Wii and had barely any 3rd party AAA support. But by that time we will already know that PS4 sold around 125-130M lifetime, so no..., is not going to outsell PS4, sorry.

Wii was around 57M units sold to consumers after 36 months (and its 36th month is end of November 2009, because if we count the gap after 37 or 38 months, the gap is even greater). Switch is going to be around what? 52M?. The real question still is if Switch is going to outsell Wii instead. People should not aim that high yet because Switch hasn't proved yet that it can still sell a lot after year 3-4 of the console life, and except NDS, any Nintendo console has done that. There's nothing pointing out that Switch will avoid dropping in sales like Wii or 3DS did..., so we should be cautious about such predictions for Switch.

But 2020 is going to give us a very definitive idea of what the future holds up for Switch, for sales and its games, so we'll see....

The more you read, the funnier it gets

Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Tbh I now think the Switch will outsell the PS4 even though around late 2019 to early 2020 i would've said it would be difficult to outsell the PS4. The things that made me change my mind includes how slow PS4 sales been this year and they were lower than my expectations despite the Covid Boost. Plus I remember people arguing that the PS4 should win out because it has far longer legs than Nintendo consoles but after the PS3 and how this gen is looking so far, I dont see the PS4 selling for much longer as Sony doesn't seem to be prioritizing increased PS4 sales anymore. The console is still 299$ which is only 100$ cheaper than a PS5 that is also backwards compatible, why in the world would anyone choose a dying and old PS4 console when for 100$ more you get the future PS and Essentially a fully working PS4. The only way I could see the PS4 being a viable purchase for consumers in the future is if Sony does a major price cut to market it as the budget console where you could get a PS4 for 199$ or even 99$, but I honestly don't see Sony doing that and if they do i think it'll be too late for much of anyone to care. Plus the PS5 isn't like the PS3 where the price was miles too expensive for most consumers which forced many to buy PS2s, the PS5 price isn't crazy high for consumers so I'm sure many will wait to purchase a PS5 rather than settle for just a PS4. The argument that "PS consoles have long legs" shouldve ended long ago as it hasn't happened since the PS2, a two decade old console. The PS3 died relatively quickly after PS4 launch and I expect the same to happen for PS4 due to all the reasons stated above. I think 130M for PS4 seems highly unlikely and maybe 125M is even questionable, at this point I'm expecting the PS4 to hover in the low 120s when all said and done.

Plus, it should be a given that minimum the Switch will sell 120M, I just can't see the Switch falling off in sales so fast to the point where it doesn't reach 120M sold. For the Switch to somehow not reach 120M sold, Switch sales from here on out would need to fall off a cliff so steep that is even steeper than the Wii's cliff. Let's take a bare minimum example to shor you how much the Switch is expected to sell in the future worst case scenario. So its currently exoect that the Switch to begin 2021 is around 78M shipments. Most conservative estimates put the Switch selling around 20M in 2021 so by the end of 2021 the Switch will be at 98M, and lets say switch sales drop to an even more conservative 13M in 2022, Switch sales would be at 111M by 2022, and 2023 lets say Switch 2 gets released and Switch sales drop to 6M. Switch would be at 117M. Even in a worse case scenario the Switch would sell 117M, which easily puts it within reach of the PS4. A more realistic scenario would be the Switch selling 130M, which should be enough to outsell PS4.

JWeinCom said:

Probably never.

What a dumbass.

OTBWY said:

PS4 sales slowed down considerably, faster than people anticipated. The Switch on the other hand still has to show its final form.

The rate PS4 was at in 2019 and before made me think 125-135 million were a given for it. Now, it's looking like 120-125 million. Sony seems to be starting to pull the plug as far as hardware support goes

And Switch had its best year in 2020 for hardware sales, and should have a stellar 2021. So in the likely situation Switch outsells PS4 (which I haven't thought was that possible until the PS5 launched), it will be in 2023 or 2024. Too tough for me to say.

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 125 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 122 mil (was 100 then 130 million) Xbox One: 50 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

I agree with most of the recent analysis. I am sure if this poll could be retaken today, over 80% of voters would say that the Switch will eventually outsell the PS4. If Sony were serious about pushing PS4 sales they should have cut the price by now. Once we get to January, the PS4 will probably be struggling to break 50k per week and will probably flat-line by the end of the 2021: the console has lost its momentum. If left without another price cut, the PS4 will not even make it to 120M units. The Switch, on the other hand, is already on track to easily sell 120M units and that is assuming no price-cut, pro-model or major new releases such as BotW2 that will generate massive hype. I also do not see Nintendo being as eager to pull the plug on the Switch as they were back in the Wii days. Nintendo understands the risk of releasing new platforms and after the Wii U I doubt that they are going to want to push out a totally new console until they have to. It is more likely that they will push out faster or lower cost revisions of the Switch like they did with the 3DS. Keep in mind that Nintendo has only a single platform now and so the risk is a lot bigger with quickly killing their console and releasing something totally new.  Also, we don't even have a codename for Nintendo's new console which usually comes 2-3 years before launch which tells me that Nintendo is nowhere near done with the Switch.  It will easily pass 120M and can probably even get to 150M when you consider that folks may want to re-buy the faster models.