Forums - Sales Discussion - Your sales expectations for 2020

Let's just say;

Switch: 21M
PS4: 9.5M
XBO: 2.5M
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PS5: 4.5M
XBS: 3.5M



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I’m going to guesstimate the following:
Switch: 21.16M
PS4: 10.12M
XBO: 2.72M

The above are literally based on nothing but thin air lol
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PS5: 4.9M
XBS: 3.5M

I honestly think that PS5/XBS will sell what’s shipped basically, they each have there own respective fan base that will buy them no matter what, same as Nintendo does. Like day one I’ll be getting a PS5, just because I can.



The PS3 sold 8.25m in 2013, so a prediction less then that would be silly.


Switch - 21.5m
PS4 - 10m
XBO - 2.5m

PS5 - 4.5m
XBX - 2.8m



I think people underestimate next gen consoles. PS4 was sold out everywhere, Sony underestimated the demand by a lot, this time they'll be ready for a huge launch. Not only that, but also PS5 will come to Japan this year (PS4 released in Japan in February 2014). Now you may say "But PS5 won't be as successfull in Japan" yes but it'll still sell at least 500K at worst, which is still a good advantage over PS4.

I'll be very surprised if PS5 sell less than 5 million this year, even at 500$.

And if the rumor of Series X having 2 SKUs (one at a very accessible price) are true, it'll also sell way more than XB1 3m in 2013 those 2 SKUs combined.



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

Ryng_Tolu said:
I think people underestimate next gen consoles. PS4 was sold out everywhere, Sony underestimated the demand by a lot, this time they'll be ready for a huge launch. Not only that, but also PS5 will come to Japan this year (PS4 released in Japan in February 2014). Now you may say "But PS5 won't be as successfull in Japan" yes but it'll still sell at least 500K at worst, which is still a good advantage over PS4.

I'll be very surprised if PS5 sell less than 5 million this year, even at 500$.

And if the rumor of Series X having 2 SKUs (one at a very accessible price) are true, it'll also sell way more than XB1 3m in 2013 those 2 SKUs combined.

I smell Vita LTD number for PS5 in Japan and next year is going to repeat the year of 2011 3ds(Switch) vs PSV(PS5)



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Still a bit early since we don't know if we get multiple XBox series at launch. If Microsoft only sells that highend model they won't have that high sales. If PS5 costs 500 $ the sales also won't be as high as PS4.

Switch: 21M
PS4: 8M
XBO: 4M

PS5: 4M
SeXBox: 3M



siebensus4 said:

PS4: 8M

Just so you know, PS3 sold 8.25m in 2013... It would be strange for the PS4 to suddenly perform worse than the PS3 launch aligned.



Barkley said:

siebensus4 said:

PS4: 8M

Just so you know, PS3 sold 8.25m in 2013... It would be strange for the PS4 to suddenly perform worse than the PS3 launch aligned.

PS4 sales are trending down quicker than PS3 but 8m is pretty extreme.

Year 5

PS3-up 6%

PS4-down 10%

Year 6

PS3-down 15%

PS4-down 20%

Year 7

PS3-down 30%

PS4-down ???



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Barkley said:

Just so you know, PS3 sold 8.25m in 2013... It would be strange for the PS4 to suddenly perform worse than the PS3 launch aligned.

PS4 sales are trending down quicker than PS3 but 8m is pretty extreme.

Year 5

PS3-up 6%

PS4-down 10%

Year 6

PS3-down 15%

PS4-down 20%

Year 7

PS3-down 30%

PS4-down ???

PS4 has only been down for 2 years now, and the first year - 2018 was just barely down, so you can't do this type of prediction based on only 1 mediocre drop in 2019 and to speak about trendings .. I am sure that PS4 will make at least double the sales PS3 did after PS4 launch. (at worst)

And is not necessary to be dropped with big % every year, ps1 and ps2 did have some of their last years that were almost equal and consecutive, like PS1 - 7M 2 consecutive years and PS2 was 16M for 2 years, later on was around 7-8M 2 consecutive years again, and the most of the other drops were only with 2-3M.

I am not saying that PS4 will be 100% the same, but just dont be 100% sure that PS4 had to necessary drop every next year with 30 or 40%.

Everything depends on Sony. Will they leave it without support like it's dead console just like they left the PS3 ? Or will they support both PS5 and PS4 at the same time, with price cuts for PS4, games, bundles, marketing, and enough price difference between the two. Everything lies on these things.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 12 January 2020

Gonna make a slight change to my predictions:

Switch - 22.5m
PS4 - 9m
XBO - 2.5m

PS5 - 4.5m
XBX - 2.8m