switch: 22.7 million
ps4: 11.2 million
xb1: 3 million

Ps5: 5.5 million
Xbox series X: 4.6 million

feeling very optimistic about everything other than xb1.

Thanks for your thoughts. I expect a PS4 weekly basis of 150K, so with holiday boost we should be around 10M.

Just for curiosity, can you explain your next gen prediction? Why you think they will sell less than PS4/XB1 (PS4 release in Japan so unless you expect <300k there you think PS5 will sell less in the west)

PS3 was a late bloomer and practically sold the same each year 2009-2012 (13M, 13.9, 13.2, 12.2). PS4 had also a plateau 2015 to 2018 with 17.5, 17.6, 19.8 and 18.2. However, the PS4 already started to drop in 2019 like the PS3 only did in 2013. So it might be wiser to compare to PS3 2014, or more correctly, to a mix of 2013 and 2014.

That said, I think the PS4 can beat the 8.25M of the PS3 - if barely so.

It's hard for me to guess Switch's numbers. They are up year over year by a significant margin, but IDK how their holiday season will be impacted by the new consoles. I think I'll say that it will be around one million higher than this year at 21M.

So
Switch 21M
PS4 9M
XB1 2.5M

PS5 5M
XSX 3.5M

I believe the price is going to have a negative impact, I'm expecting PS5 to be $500 and XSX to be at least $500, possibly even $600. Microsoft are also in a weaker position now than they were post-360 so that'll make the XSX a tougher job to get off the starting line.

Maybe that higher price won't slow initial sales as much as I expect.

meh, price will be a big factor in the first year, but at launch i think they'll both sell almost as much as they ship. This, and considering generations are getting more froant loaded, we are gonna see a big launch.

If they don't have a big launch... that's not a good sign.

Ok so looking back at this prediction, I drastically underestimated the Switch as it sold 28M instead of 21M. However, the unexpected pandemic certainly boosted the sales considerably so I couldn't have predicted that. But even then I underestimated the hype animal crossing really was as its likely to sell 30M in less than a year which is insane and didn't at all predict that, so even without covid I think my prediction would've been too low.

For the PS4, I definetely overestimated the PS4 EVEN WITH the Covid Boost thinking it'll sell 10M but instead sold 9M as it had as it sold 1 Million less than expected and I bet it may have been 1-2Million consoles lower than that if the pandemic didn't happen. I put to much hope that Sony would encourage more people to buy the PS4 with enticing deals and price cuts of the consoles but it didn't happen once this year as it seems like Sony is trying to encourage people to go straight for the PS5 which is only 100$ more than the regular PS4. Plus based off of the history of PS consoles and how long they'd typically last I expected Sony to still heavily push more units into people's homes in the later life like they did with the PS1 and PS2, and since the PS4 was selling so well in 2019 I expected PS4 to stay for longer. However, after this year it seems like the PS4 is gonna die a lot quicker than we thought. I didn't overestimate PS4 sales THAT bad as I was only 1 Million off. However, the Covid sales boost made the PS4 likely sell 1-2 Million better in 2020.

For Xbox One, I underestimated it slightly as I expected 2 Million but instead sold 3M but I think the Covid Boost saved it from selling close to 2 Million. So I think my prediction was fairly accurate based off of the circumstances. The Xbox going into 2020 looked dead in sales, especially in Europe and Japan so I didn't think it stood a chance to be even close to PS4 in sales.

What's crazy about my PS5 Prediction is that I was EXACTLY RIGHT, most estimates put PS4 sales or the year at 4.3 or 4.4 Million in 2020 and I was SPOT ON. I feel good about that one.

I overestimated Xbox SX a bit cause I thought it had a chance to capture the U.S market again and I thought Halo Infinite would've been a launch title. However, once again it seems like Americans are prefering PS over Xbox. However, my prediction isn't entirely crazy either and fairly close.

So all an all, all my predictions seemed somewhat accurate except the Switch.

lolllllll

Oh it's one of those threads, It'll be fun to see all wrong predictions lol