javi741 said: Switch 21M: I'm going to go a little higher this year than 2019, the Switch will have very little competition from PS and Xbox for most of the year since the PS4 and Xbox One are obviously on their way out and I through word-of-mouth and the release of the cheaper Switch Lite model, the solid game library the Switch built up over the years, and the potential of a more powerful Switch pro model releasing and a price cut of the OG Switch will give consumers far more general interest in the Switch, as Switch sales have been increasing since launch still year by year. I also believe Animal crossing will be huge in getting a whole new demographic, like casual female gamers, onto the Switch's ecosystem just to play Animal crossing. |
Ok so looking back at this prediction, I drastically underestimated the Switch as it sold 28M instead of 21M. However, the unexpected pandemic certainly boosted the sales considerably so I couldn't have predicted that. But even then I underestimated the hype animal crossing really was as its likely to sell 30M in less than a year which is insane and didn't at all predict that, so even without covid I think my prediction would've been too low.
For the PS4, I definetely overestimated the PS4 EVEN WITH the Covid Boost thinking it'll sell 10M but instead sold 9M as it had as it sold 1 Million less than expected and I bet it may have been 1-2Million consoles lower than that if the pandemic didn't happen. I put to much hope that Sony would encourage more people to buy the PS4 with enticing deals and price cuts of the consoles but it didn't happen once this year as it seems like Sony is trying to encourage people to go straight for the PS5 which is only 100$ more than the regular PS4. Plus based off of the history of PS consoles and how long they'd typically last I expected Sony to still heavily push more units into people's homes in the later life like they did with the PS1 and PS2, and since the PS4 was selling so well in 2019 I expected PS4 to stay for longer. However, after this year it seems like the PS4 is gonna die a lot quicker than we thought. I didn't overestimate PS4 sales THAT bad as I was only 1 Million off. However, the Covid sales boost made the PS4 likely sell 1-2 Million better in 2020.
For Xbox One, I underestimated it slightly as I expected 2 Million but instead sold 3M but I think the Covid Boost saved it from selling close to 2 Million. So I think my prediction was fairly accurate based off of the circumstances. The Xbox going into 2020 looked dead in sales, especially in Europe and Japan so I didn't think it stood a chance to be even close to PS4 in sales.
What's crazy about my PS5 Prediction is that I was EXACTLY RIGHT, most estimates put PS4 sales or the year at 4.3 or 4.4 Million in 2020 and I was SPOT ON. I feel good about that one.
I overestimated Xbox SX a bit cause I thought it had a chance to capture the U.S market again and I thought Halo Infinite would've been a launch title. However, once again it seems like Americans are prefering PS over Xbox. However, my prediction isn't entirely crazy either and fairly close.
So all an all, all my predictions seemed somewhat accurate except the Switch.
Last edited by javi741 - on 12 January 2021