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Forums - Sales Discussion - Your sales expectations for 2020

Norion on 13 February 2021
Shadow1980 said:
Norion said:

Europe is the Switch's weakest major region though it is now tracking ahead of the PS3 there by a decent bit so it only doing low 30's there is very unlikely I think and it's already at 10M in RoW and is really picking up lately with it having sold over 5M last year so it should be at least 13M by the end of this year so it's pretty much guaranteed it gets past 15M. 125-130 is on the low side in my view but it's an acceptable estimate. My main issue was you saying a projection below 120-130 was pessimistic since there's no chance it ends up in the 110's at this point but you say low 120's is the worst-case scenario so I'm guessing you've moved your worst-case up somewhat. I do think low 130's is a more realistic worst-case scenario but low 120's isn't that much lower so nothing really wrong with thinking that's the worst-case. As long as a worse-case projection has it getting to the 120's it's fine.

Yes, the Switch had been tracking about on par with the PS3 in Europe and is now ahead of it after an unexpectedly large 2020. However, the PS3 was relatively backloaded, with a bit over half of its lifetime sales in Europe coming after Year 4. Except for the DS in the U.S., which sold 48.7% of its lifetime sales after Year 4 (it was well under that in Europe and Japan, where the system was more frontloaded), no Nintendo system has ever been quite that backloaded. It could happen with the Switch, but it's far from the norm for Nintendo systems. The Switch's relatively slim LTD lead over the PS3 could easily vanish over the next three years. 30M is probably a worst-case scenario, though. It could still roughly tie the PS3. It'll depend on if whether its current regional ratio hews closer to that of the U.S. or to Japan (the Switch's baseline growth was much lower in Japan than in the U.S.).

In any case, yeah, I don't see the Switch selling less than 120M. 125-130M is to me the most likely result, and I don't see it getting to the 140M mark. 135M is probably the best-case scenario. I am willing to re-evaluate this estimate in the future, though.

That is a fair point and assessment. While I think 125-130 is on the low side I wouldn't be surprised much if it ends up there. Some people do respond to the posts you make unfairly for sure which is a shame since you do make some of the best posts here. Anyway I have no problems with your assessment now so have a good one.