RolStoppable said:
Conina said:
Do we have numbers for that? Or is it only an anecdote which doesn't hold much weight?
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Yes, we have enough numbers to come to that conclusion.
Rocket League was free on PS+ in July 2015. Approximately 5m free downloads. At the time of the below announcement, Rocket League still had one week of being free left, but said 5m figure also includes purchases of the game on Steam and the PS4. https://www.polygon.com/2015/7/29/9069709/rocket-league-hits-5m-downloads-more-than-double-that-of-predecessor
Sony didn't provide regular updates for the number of PS+ subscribers in the early years of the PS4, but making an estimate for the number of subscribers in July 2015 isn't too hard. Definitely above 10m subscribers. https://www.statista.com/statistics/532431/playstation-plus-subscribers-global/
Rocket League gained immense traction, but more than half of all subscribers who could have gotten it for free still didn't bother to download it. Hardly surprising when online multiplayer is the main and commonly sole reason for people to subscribe to PS+. PS+ is a service that launched in 2010, but had only 1m subscribers by the time the PS4 launched. It was only when online multiplayer was put behind the paywall that the service gained traction.
Now you could speculate that less popular games than Rocket League achieve the same or better download rates, but that's neither reasonable nor realistic. The selection of free PS+ titles hasn't been exactly stellar in the last few years either.
thismeintiel said:
That's hardly a guaranteed thing, though. XBO isn't exactly going out with a bang like PS3 did, which helped gain gamers' trust and interest, some of who they may have lost at the start, in the PS brand going forward. It also helped the PS3 crawl past the 360, even though the 360 had almost all the advantages PS4 had early in its lifetime. It doesn't hurt that there actually is very strong brand loyalty for PS in EU and Japan. The real point, though, is that Sony didn't just sit around saying, "Please, be excited for next gen," while releasing mediocre game after mediocre game, with maybe one or two good ones in the mix. Something Xbox has been doing the past couple of years.
Even if Xbox tries its hardest next gen, there may be tons of gamers who are just done with them, at least in terms of HW. And we know the boss, MS, is more interested in going into the streaming side of things, something that also may put gamers off. I mean, if Scarlett doesn't perform well for the first year or two, I wouldn't be surprised if MS pulls the plug on making more, putting those resources into pushing xCloud/GamerPass. PlayStation consoles, on the other hand, are very important to Sony.
It's also important to note that the PS4 is the first time Plus was required for online play, meaning more people got it and took advantage of the games it provided. We also have 1M+ subbed to PS Now, which will continue to grow now that the price was halved. Add in the great exclusive output mentioned above, PS4 B/C, and the fact that PS5 and Scarlett will be pretty damn close in power (with rumors saying PS5 is a little more powerful) and probably price, there is even less reason to switch next gen.
As for your other post, you are correct that B/C isn't ever a main factor to buy a new console, but it does help. However, in the XBO's case, B/C definitely doesn't matter when it comes out 2 years after launch.
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Is that your obligatory "Microsoft will make a hard exit from the console market" prediction?
Anyway, your line of reasoning that it is important to close out a generation with a bang doesn't have merit. What counts is how the new generation starts and that's what decided PS4 vs. Xbox One vs. Wii U. After all, the PS2 finished strong and that didn't help the PS3. The Xbox One wasn't done in by late 360 support, it struggled because of the Xbox One.
Poor late life support doesn't hurt a new console. The latest example of that is Switch which followed the Wii U and its last year had Paper Mario: Color Splash and Tokyo Mirage Sessions. Of course I remember that most of the awful lifetime sales for Switch predictions were in part based on the belief that gamers are done with Nintendo because of the Wii U. But the predecessor is virtually irrelevant for purchase decisions of a next generation console, because people evaluate what they intend to buy, not some kind of related product that isn't in consideration to begin with.
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