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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 16 March 2019

CosmicSex said:
Without beating a dead horse, I think its safe to say that the Switch will not obtain PS4 sales. The reason is because I seriously don't think Switch can hold on for six years like a PlayStation can. The caveat will be if the Switch can do a mid gen refresh a la Pro. Even then, its going to be one heck of a task for Switch to catch up. I still have imposed a hard limit of 65 million for Switch and about 115 million for the PS4.

Lol, so Switch will sell less than the 3DS even though it's been outpacing it since the beginning? This is also factoring in 3DS had a hard drop in year 3-4. What's going to make Switch have such an emphatic drop where its going to hault enough to sell less than the 3DS?? 



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PortisheadBiscuit said:
CosmicSex said:
Without beating a dead horse, I think its safe to say that the Switch will not obtain PS4 sales. The reason is because I seriously don't think Switch can hold on for six years like a PlayStation can. The caveat will be if the Switch can do a mid gen refresh a la Pro. Even then, its going to be one heck of a task for Switch to catch up. I still have imposed a hard limit of 65 million for Switch and about 115 million for the PS4.

Lol, so Switch will sell less than the 3DS even though it's been outpacing it since the beginning? This is also factoring in 3DS had a hard drop in year 3-4. What's going to make Switch have such an emphatic drop where its going to hault enough to sell less than the 3DS?? 

To give you an idea of what I did, I basically took the 3DS and compensated for price difference.  I know that it is shocking for it to be near 50% of sales, but in all reality, I do expect a portable PS5 and more realistically, I don't see how a hybrid console of the Switch's stature can compete with a PS5.  I think that Nintendo will want to recapture 3rd parties and I think that they are going to need something more powerful. I expect Nintendo to release a new console cabable of playing switch games but much more powerful.  Like Wii to Wii U or DS to 3DS. 



MasonADC said:
CosmicSex said:
Without beating a dead horse, I think its safe to say that the Switch will not obtain PS4 sales. The reason is because I seriously don't think Switch can hold on for six years like a PlayStation can. The caveat will be if the Switch can do a mid gen refresh a la Pro. Even then, its going to be one heck of a task for Switch to catch up. I still have imposed a hard limit of 65 million for Switch and about 115 million for the PS4.

No and no to both of your LTD predictions. The switch will blow past 65 million and the PS4 will most likely end up at 125 million imo. By the end of 2019, the switch will already pretty close to 65 million and will surpass it by the end of 2020 

I am willing to say a possible 70 million for Switch.  For PS4 yes 125 million (or more) is possible, but the time it takes to get there is going to be some major time into the PS5 life cycle. Again, I think Nintendo will cut the Switch short for a part two.  The reason why we can't count sales is because I expect that the new version will be able to play games that the original can't. 



zorg1000 said:
CosmicSex said:
Without beating a dead horse, I think its safe to say that the Switch will not obtain PS4 sales. The reason is because I seriously don't think Switch can hold on for six years like a PlayStation can. The caveat will be if the Switch can do a mid gen refresh a la Pro. Even then, its going to be one heck of a task for Switch to catch up. I still have imposed a hard limit of 65 million for Switch and about 115 million for the PS4.

I agree that Switch wont catch PS4 but 65 million? It's already halfway there, can you show me one successful console that has sold 50% of its lifetime sales in 2 years?

Just out of curiosity, what do you expect Switch sales to be at the end of this year?

If we are talking about calendar year I say no less than 43 million.  And 45 million is possible easily.  Next year will NOT sell like this year.  PS5 and Xbox Next will be competing for the huge chunks of the market.  So this year is their Greatest year. Demand for the Switch will fall sharply next year and will settle around 65 to 70 million. 



CosmicSex said:
MasonADC said:

No and no to both of your LTD predictions. The switch will blow past 65 million and the PS4 will most likely end up at 125 million imo. By the end of 2019, the switch will already pretty close to 65 million and will surpass it by the end of 2020 

I am willing to say a possible 70 million for Switch.  For PS4 yes 125 million (or more) is possible, but the time it takes to get there is going to be some major time into the PS5 life cycle. Again, I think Nintendo will cut the Switch short for a part two.  The reason why we can't count sales is because I expect that the new version will be able to play games that the original can't. 

What new version? One this year? Or something along the lines in 2021? Either way, both are unlikely and makes no sense to happen. For the switch to being outpacing/ trading spots with ps4 at the moment to go to onlying selling half of its LTD is such a bold call. If it does somehow happen, major props to you



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CosmicSex said:
zorg1000 said:

I agree that Switch wont catch PS4 but 65 million? It's already halfway there, can you show me one successful console that has sold 50% of its lifetime sales in 2 years?

Just out of curiosity, what do you expect Switch sales to be at the end of this year?

If we are talking about calendar year I say no less than 43 million.  And 45 million is possible easily.  Next year will NOT sell like this year.  PS5 and Xbox Next will be competing for the huge chunks of the market.  So this year is their Greatest year. Demand for the Switch will fall sharply next year and will settle around 65 to 70 million. 

43-45 million would mean it sells less than 2018, if you think 2019 will be its greatest year than 46 million would be the minimum.

PS5/XB4 will not have any notable affect on Switch sales, there is literally no data that supports something like that happening. I would like you to show me one example of a consoles sales plummeting due to a different company releasing a new console 3-4 years later.

Switch selling only 65 million would give it by far the worst legs of any successful console of all time, significantly worse than Wii. It just doesnt make any sense to think that.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

CosmicSex said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Lol, so Switch will sell less than the 3DS even though it's been outpacing it since the beginning? This is also factoring in 3DS had a hard drop in year 3-4. What's going to make Switch have such an emphatic drop where its going to hault enough to sell less than the 3DS?? 

To give you an idea of what I did, I basically took the 3DS and compensated for price difference.  I know that it is shocking for it to be near 50% of sales, but in all reality, I do expect a portable PS5 and more realistically, I don't see how a hybrid console of the Switch's stature can compete with a PS5.  I think that Nintendo will want to recapture 3rd parties and I think that they are going to need something more powerful. I expect Nintendo to release a new console cabable of playing switch games but much more powerful.  Like Wii to Wii U or DS to 3DS. 

Just what I thought, you're not basing your prediction on anything tangible, just pipe dreams and wishful thinking. PS5 portable? Nothing points to that being the case. And even if it were, when has a Sony portable ever had a negative effect on a Nintendo portable?



CosmicSex said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Lol, so Switch will sell less than the 3DS even though it's been outpacing it since the beginning? This is also factoring in 3DS had a hard drop in year 3-4. What's going to make Switch have such an emphatic drop where its going to hault enough to sell less than the 3DS?? 

To give you an idea of what I did, I basically took the 3DS and compensated for price difference.  I know that it is shocking for it to be near 50% of sales, but in all reality, I do expect a portable PS5 and more realistically, I don't see how a hybrid console of the Switch's stature can compete with a PS5.  I think that Nintendo will want to recapture 3rd parties and I think that they are going to need something more powerful. I expect Nintendo to release a new console cabable of playing switch games but much more powerful.  Like Wii to Wii U or DS to 3DS. 

more unrealistically you mean. A portable Playstation would still not come close to PS4 power without sucking the battery dry in a millisecond or being heavy as a brick.

But also remember that the year Switch came on the market was also the best year of the PS4, simply because they barely compete. The release of a PS5 thus has close to 0 effect on Switch sales.

While I do think this year will be the peak of the Switch (due to most heavy hitters having been released by end of the year), I don't expect the sales come crashing down anytime soon. Rather, I expect them to be plateauing for a year and then come down slowly.

In fact, unless the PS5 would be released this year or next spring, it's quite possible that the Switch will be very close to those 65M already by the time of the PS5 release



Bofferbrauer2 said:

In fact, unless the PS5 would be released this year or next spring, it's quite possible that the Switch will be very close to those 65M already by the time of the PS5 release

Yep it will be quite close. Sales should be close to 60 million by the end of 2020.

2017, ~13 million

2018, ~16 million

2019, ~18 million

2020, ~13 million

2017-2020, ~60 million

It could be a few million over/under that but it's almost impossible for Switch to top out at 65-70 million.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

Days Gone is a bigger game, Sekiro and DMC5 were much bigger game also as new acclaimed IP and first in the gen. There is good chance of Death Stranding, TLOU2 and Tsushijima launching this year.

Anyway you are basically comparing regular weeks from both System but consider one as PS4 at max due to a game that doesn't really push HW against Switch at minimum because it doesn't have games. And that imho isn't the truth, the truth is that when we see all weeks since start of january both systems have been quite close to one another.

Division was an example.

PS4 release schedule

January 18-Ace Combat 7

January 25-Resident Evil 2

January 29-Kingdom Hearts

February 4-Apex Legends

February 15-Jump Force

February 15-Far Cry: New Dawn

February 15-Metro Exodus

February 22-Anthem

March 8-Devil May Cry 5

March 15-The Division 2

Switch release schedule

January 11-New Super Mario Bros. Deluxe

If Switch has sold on par/better than PS4 in a time where it's going through a bit of a dry spell versus PS4 getting notable releases nearly every week than the gap will be pretty notable later this year.

Disregarding the sales topic, your post sums up why I've got a PS4 and no Switch.

So many different games to play on my PS4 <3. While Switch has yet another old Mario 2D.



God bless You.

My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?