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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 16 March 2019

DonFerrari said:

zorg1000 said:

The YoY decline will continue at a similar rate in Q2. Days Gone has the potential to be a solid system seller but I doubt it comes close to what God of War did last April. May has Rage 2 & Crash Racing in June vs Detroit & The Crew 2 so expect those those months to be down as well.

What big games are confirmed for the 2nd half of the year? The annual sports and Call of Duty are coming but their console moving ability gets smaller each year as these will be the 7th entry of those titles.

Some safe bets are Doom 2 from Bethesda vs Fallout 76 last year, Borderlands 3 from Take-Two vs Red Dead 2 last year, Watch Dogs from Ubisoft vs Assassin's Creed last year, Star Wars from EA vs Battlefield V last year, Last of Us 2 from Sony vs Spiderman last year.

Let's say it's a tie overall when it comes to big games in the 2nd half of the year, that likely means a notable decline as it's harder for titles to sell consoles when you get late into a consoles cycle.

15 million for PS4 requires a ~17% YoY decline and 20m for Switch requires a ~22% increase which shouldn't be too hard to imagine since PS4 is currently down by over 20% and Switch up by about 28%.

Are we going to assume none of the 3 most expected games for PS4 won't release this year? TLOU, Death Stranding and Ghost of Tsushijima.

I expect PS4 to be about 16M and Switch 19M.

Did you not read my post? I have Last of Us in it, even if you add in a 2nd of those 3 titles it doesnt change anything.

Q2-Q4 2018 had God of War, Detroit, Spider Man, Red Dead, Call of Duty, Battlefield, Assassin's Creed, Fallout 76, Spyro, Tomb Raider, Hitman, Just Cause, Soul Calibur, Darksiders, FIFA, Madden & NBA as moderate-major releases.

Q2-Q4 2019 lineup will likely look something like Days Gone, Last of Us 2, Ghost of Tsushima, Mortal Kombat, Rage 2, Crash Racing, Doom, Star Wars, Call of Duty, Watch Dogs, Borderlands 3, Wolfenstein, Control, Shenmue, FIFA, Madden & NBA as moderate-major releases.

The lineups essentially cancel each other out just like Q1 2018 vs Q1 2019 cancelled each other out and the age of the system comes into play so a similar decline as we have seen is to be expected.

16 million would be an ~11% decline, the exact same as last year, 15-20% decline is far more likely. Also that's a 2 million decline and it's already down ~680k YoY in only 2.5 months.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Shiken said:
DonFerrari said:

Way to go and make it like an attack on other user and stealth accusation of fanboyism.

Division 2 could have been the biggest of the week, that is irrelevant, just show that the week hadn't any title to push PS4 HW.

End of the year certainly Switch will sell more than PS4, the point I made is that I think it hardly will be a 5+M gap.

Are we going to assume none of the 3 most expected games for PS4 won't release this year? TLOU, Death Stranding and Ghost of Tsushijima.

I expect PS4 to be about 16M and Switch 19M.

I didn't mean it is more likely that Switch will be 20M next year, I meant that 5M gap is almost certain next year.

So Switch had more to play in the 2 years than PS4? Then we have to go back to a lot of threads that on aligned sales had the "but Switch didn't had a noteworthy game in the last 6-12 months".

All I have to do a is point out the fact that the PS4 was 90% cross gen games for over a year, giving little incentive to upgrade, to immediately put that to rest.  Switch had a slow first half of 2018, for certain.  The PS4 had over a year of disappointment before things turned around.  Look I had a PS4 since launch and when I have to play a game like Bound By Flame because there was a total lack of ANY decent RPG on the system until Dragon Age (which is controversial, but I liked it), there is a huge problem with pretending like it offered more than the Switch does.

Much like how I defended the PS4 on here during those times because fanbases like to blow things out of proportion, I will also defend the Switch when the same BS gets thrown around by those trying to downplay.  The funny thing is, it is easier this time around because the Switch actually does have a lot to offer during those first two years.

I mean when the only thing someone can do right now is bring up a single slow 6 month period that has already passed or cling to past stigmas that no longer exist, it really shows how little they have to offer to the topic at hand.

As for the other reply you quoted me on...

I did not mean to come across as hostile, but I know I can sound harsh at times.  I am simply pointing out how pointless and irrelevant his information was as it can turned around very easily.  The motive behind his post was also questioned with merit as well, because there is literally no other reason to twist information the way he did.  That is all.  In no way was I "attacking" him.

The 2 first years have been crossgen since at least PS2 launch, so nothing new on that.

On the other point, well words can lead to wrong conclusion, if you weren't being aggressive ok, but I don't think there was a need to say that he was looking biased because of that comment.

I didn't had much problem finding good games on launch, well a little more trouble than the gens prior happened just because this was the first gen I bought in the start, PS1 I bougth after PS2 had released, PS2 I bought 1 year before PS3 launched, PS3 I bought 3 years after launch, PS4 6 months from launch so games were more expensive and had less variety, still I didn't had problem to find games. Of course the lower number of genres you like larger the chance for a gen start to be worse for you.

Also I would agree (even if it isn't the games I look forward) Zelda and Oddissey as launch titles were major stuff (likely would have launched in WiiU only if it didn't flop, while Sony had TLOU and GT6 launch in PS3 same year PS4 launched).

COKTOE said:

Wait. So, the PS4 is in it's 6th year?

   

Someone changed how we count years, so you are only in your 6th year after you enter the 7th.

zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

Are we going to assume none of the 3 most expected games for PS4 won't release this year? TLOU, Death Stranding and Ghost of Tsushijima.

I expect PS4 to be about 16M and Switch 19M.

Did you not read my post? I have Last of Us in it, even if you add in a 2nd of those 3 titles it doesnt change anything.

Q2-Q4 2018 had God of War, Detroit, Spider Man, Red Dead, Call of Duty, Battlefield, Assassin's Creed, Fallout 76, Spyro, Tomb Raider, Hitman, Just Cause, Soul Calibur, Darksiders, FIFA, Madden & NBA as moderate-major releases.

Q2-Q4 2019 lineup will likely look something like Days Gone, Last of Us 2, Ghost of Tsushima, Mortal Kombat, Rage 2, Crash Racing, Doom, Star Wars, Call of Duty, Watch Dogs, Borderlands 3, Wolfenstein, Control, Shenmue, FIFA, Madden & NBA as moderate-major releases.

The lineups essentially cancel each other out just like Q1 2018 vs Q1 2019 cancelled each other out and the age of the system comes into play so a similar decline as we have seen is to be expected.

16 million would be an ~11% decline, the exact same as last year, 15-20% decline is far more likely. Also that's a 2 million decline and it's already down ~680k YoY in only 2.5 months.

I haven't seem TLOU in your previous post, if it was there my bad I missed. I would say this year have a small leg up as TLOU as exclusive is much more expected than RDR2 on PS4.

Using VGC before shipment corrections to predict the YOY down will only lead us to miss projections.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:

zorg1000 said:

Did you not read my post? I have Last of Us in it, even if you add in a 2nd of those 3 titles it doesnt change anything.

Q2-Q4 2018 had God of War, Detroit, Spider Man, Red Dead, Call of Duty, Battlefield, Assassin's Creed, Fallout 76, Spyro, Tomb Raider, Hitman, Just Cause, Soul Calibur, Darksiders, FIFA, Madden & NBA as moderate-major releases.

Q2-Q4 2019 lineup will likely look something like Days Gone, Last of Us 2, Ghost of Tsushima, Mortal Kombat, Rage 2, Crash Racing, Doom, Star Wars, Call of Duty, Watch Dogs, Borderlands 3, Wolfenstein, Control, Shenmue, FIFA, Madden & NBA as moderate-major releases.

The lineups essentially cancel each other out just like Q1 2018 vs Q1 2019 cancelled each other out and the age of the system comes into play so a similar decline as we have seen is to be expected.

16 million would be an ~11% decline, the exact same as last year, 15-20% decline is far more likely. Also that's a 2 million decline and it's already down ~680k YoY in only 2.5 months.

I haven't seem TLOU in your previous post, if it was there my bad I missed. I would say this year have a small leg up as TLOU as exclusive is much more expected than RDR2 on PS4.

Using VGC before shipment correction to predict the YOY down will only lead us to miss projections.

I doubt that TLOU will be bigger than RDR2 on PS4. RDR2 did 23 million in 2 months, at least 15 million of that was from PS4. TLOU did 17 million in 5 years on PS3+PS4. TLOU2 should sell more than 10 million this year if it releases in Sept/Oct but still much less than RDR2.

The problem you're making though is comparing titles in isolation when you need to be comparing the overall lineup over the year and it doesnt look like either will have any notable advantage.

Sure  Official numbers from Sony will give us a better picture but we have NPD+Media Create which have PS4 down by ~450k in Jan+Feb and there is no reason at all to not expect Europe & RotW to be down as well.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

I haven't seem TLOU in your previous post, if it was there my bad I missed. I would say this year have a small leg up as TLOU as exclusive is much more expected than RDR2 on PS4.

Using VGC before shipment correction to predict the YOY down will only lead us to miss projections.

I doubt that TLOU will be bigger than RDR2 on PS4. RDR2 did 23 million in 2 months, at least 15 million of that was from PS4. TLOU did 17 million in 5 years on PS3+PS4. TLOU2 should sell more than 10 million this year if it releases in Sept/Oct but still much less than RDR2.

The problem you're making though is comparing titles in isolation when you need to be comparing the overall lineup over the year and it doesnt look like either will have any notable advantage.

Sure  Official numbers from Sony will give us a better picture but we have NPD+Media Create which have PS4 down by ~450k in Jan+Feb and there is no reason at all to not expect Europe & RotW to be down as well.

I don't think TLOU2 will outsell RDR2, I do think it won't sell less HW than RDR2, two different things.

Europe and RoW will likely be down, but will it be by 200k? Same for how much Switch is up. We have seem big adjustment for month or quarter period in the recent past.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
zorg1000 said:

I doubt that TLOU will be bigger than RDR2 on PS4. RDR2 did 23 million in 2 months, at least 15 million of that was from PS4. TLOU did 17 million in 5 years on PS3+PS4. TLOU2 should sell more than 10 million this year if it releases in Sept/Oct but still much less than RDR2.

The problem you're making though is comparing titles in isolation when you need to be comparing the overall lineup over the year and it doesnt look like either will have any notable advantage.

Sure  Official numbers from Sony will give us a better picture but we have NPD+Media Create which have PS4 down by ~450k in Jan+Feb and there is no reason at all to not expect Europe & RotW to be down as well.

I don't think TLOU2 will outsell RDR2, I do think it won't sell less HW than RDR2, two different things.

Europe and RoW will likely be down, but will it be by 200k? Same for how much Switch is up. We have seem big adjustment for month or quarter period in the recent past.

TLOU2 will sell alot and it move some systems during the launch month but considering that TLOU has sold ~10 million on PS4 than I would say the majority of its audience is already on the system.

Probably pretty close to that, Jan+Feb has US down 136k and Japan down 312k so Europe+RotW being down ~200k is not farfetched at all.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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AngryLittleAlchemist said:

I think that the people in this thread who are saying the PS4 is 6 years old would enjoy this video a lot and even learn while watching it! 



- "If you have the heart of a true winner, you can always get more pissed off than some other asshole."

zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

I don't think TLOU2 will outsell RDR2, I do think it won't sell less HW than RDR2, two different things.

Europe and RoW will likely be down, but will it be by 200k? Same for how much Switch is up. We have seem big adjustment for month or quarter period in the recent past.

TLOU2 will sell alot and it move some systems during the launch month but considering that TLOU has sold ~10 million on PS4 than I would say the majority of its audience is already on the system.

Probably pretty close to that, Jan+Feb has US down 136k and Japan down 312k so Europe+RotW being down ~200k is not farfetched at all.

It certainly isn't farfetched to have it 200k drop in Europe+RotW.

And yes most of the fanbase of TLOU have already bought PS4 at that moment or one of the good games launched in the over 5 years since launch.

I want to see how much Sony will forecast for the FY to have better aim, they have shipped over their projection basically every time this gen.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
zorg1000 said:

I doubt that TLOU will be bigger than RDR2 on PS4. RDR2 did 23 million in 2 months, at least 15 million of that was from PS4. TLOU did 17 million in 5 years on PS3+PS4. TLOU2 should sell more than 10 million this year if it releases in Sept/Oct but still much less than RDR2.

The problem you're making though is comparing titles in isolation when you need to be comparing the overall lineup over the year and it doesnt look like either will have any notable advantage.

Sure  Official numbers from Sony will give us a better picture but we have NPD+Media Create which have PS4 down by ~450k in Jan+Feb and there is no reason at all to not expect Europe & RotW to be down as well.

I don't think TLOU2 will outsell RDR2, I do think it won't sell less HW than RDR2, two different things.

Europe and RoW will likely be down, but will it be by 200k? Same for how much Switch is up. We have seem big adjustment for month or quarter period in the recent past.

Yeah... with the Switch having constantly been adjusted up since the holidays after each NPD while the PS4 got pushed down a notch in Europe, so this is not really helping your case.

But I guess we'll have to wait for the end of this month where the quarterly reports come out to be sure, at least in terms of shipments.



The 3DS is selling well for a console now entering its ninth year.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 01 April 2019

The Switch is selling well for a console now entering it's third year.