Are we going to assume none of the 3 most expected games for PS4 won't release this year? TLOU, Death Stranding and Ghost of Tsushijima.
I expect PS4 to be about 16M and Switch 19M.
Did you not read my post? I have Last of Us in it, even if you add in a 2nd of those 3 titles it doesnt change anything.
Q2-Q4 2018 had God of War, Detroit, Spider Man, Red Dead, Call of Duty, Battlefield, Assassin's Creed, Fallout 76, Spyro, Tomb Raider, Hitman, Just Cause, Soul Calibur, Darksiders, FIFA, Madden & NBA as moderate-major releases.
Q2-Q4 2019 lineup will likely look something like Days Gone, Last of Us 2, Ghost of Tsushima, Mortal Kombat, Rage 2, Crash Racing, Doom, Star Wars, Call of Duty, Watch Dogs, Borderlands 3, Wolfenstein, Control, Shenmue, FIFA, Madden & NBA as moderate-major releases.
The lineups essentially cancel each other out just like Q1 2018 vs Q1 2019 cancelled each other out and the age of the system comes into play so a similar decline as we have seen is to be expected.
16 million would be an ~11% decline, the exact same as last year, 15-20% decline is far more likely. Also that's a 2 million decline and it's already down ~680k YoY in only 2.5 months.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.