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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 16 March 2019

zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

I still think there's a lot of passive agressiveness in these forums that it's not needed. I think most people, not only about this topic but in other things, in order to defend something they attack what they consider its rival instead of just celebrate what their favorite thing is doing. Is just a "feeling" i wish it could be lessein this forum. We are a small group and we know most of each other at this time. Some prefer a console or another and base their opinion on that, and some others just give their honest opinion. In my case i did not take anything personal to be clear, i barely posted anything recently, but i wish we could just talk with respect, nothing else.

Why is not relevant to discuss how much old a console is? Are you the one deciding that?, Why is not relevant to put in perspective PS4 sales in 2019 because of age?? I consider very relevant in my opinion.

For last, they make sense. It was tracked accuarately to below 30M (it showed almost 31M at the end of 2018 before) because it was the right thing to do after Nintendo announced Switch has surpassed 30M sold to consumers at the end of Jan 2019, not because shipment numbers. And yes..., 2'5M on shelves in March is a lot. This is not holiday season. I even had discussions back in January with other posters saying 2'5M could be too much units on shelves for Q3, so imagine in Q4....

Let's see first if Nintendo announces 17'5M shipped for FY18 first...I'm only saying is not a guarantee yet.

Not relevant was probably a poor choice of words, let me clarify.

You said the people making the jokes are being passive aggressive and need to accept that both PS4 & Switch are doing great but you ignore that some of the people bringing up age are doing it to either downplay Switch sales or to say that we shouldn't compare them when they had no issue with the comparisons in 2017 or 2018 when PS4 was on top.

Skeeuk said: Switch isn't the best performer here it's the PS4 in its 6th year. Yes 6th year.

Geralt99 said: By the end of the year, switch will beat ps4 by a million or 2 which is nothing special considering the popularity and portability factors of switch and the age of ps4.

Nate4Drake said: We continue to compare apples with oranges, and this will keep going for ever.  PS4 is an old Home Console, Switch a relatevely new portable from Nintendo. Can people realize that it is silly to compare sales of PS4 and Switch in 2019 and 2020 ?

How are we the ones who need to accept both are doing great when it's the people who bring up age that need a reason to justify Switch selling on par/better than PS4 this year?

Ok, i agree with you on that, if PS4 and Switch were comparable a year or two ago, then of course are comparable today. In my case, i always compared them, despite the difficulty to label what Switch is.

There are people not accepting things in each side. I don't think they're doing it always with malice, but maybe they didn't express themselves correctly or didn't chose the correct words, i don't know. But if you disagree with someone's opinion, you let it know him/her and move on.

If i replied to Nate4Drake, i would had said to him: "Maybe Switch is a portable, and PS4 is a lot older console, but we have to compare them because we can not compare anything else at the moment. I consider Switch a portable (that works as a home console too) that it's doing amazing at the moment and i found even more impressive what PS4 is doing, because bla bla bla". But this will be personal. My comment was directed in general, for everyone.

When i don't post here, is because someone already said what i think, and when i post is because i don't see anyone saying what i think. I'm that simple.

Edit: By the way, 17'0M is what Nintendo expected for FY18, you're correct. That will make more sense. If Switch is at 35'0M shipped lifetime by then, i expect around 1'0-1'5M on shelves, so.......33'5-34'0M sold to consumers. That will mean VGC is undertracking Switch. If VGC is tracking correctly Switch, then i have doubts Switch will reach 17'0M units shipped.

Last edited by colafitte - on 01 April 2019

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More numbers nice! PS4 and Switch basically tied and both with very nice sales! XB1 just........there lol.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

colafitte said:

I know some of you are trying a new joke, but now seriously, how many consoles (handhelds or home consoles) have sold around 15M finishing its 6th year(2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 6 complete years) at 300$ base price (in case PS4 does that at the end of 2019 which seems more than possible), after already sold almost 100M the year before....?. That's unprecedented. What Switch, 3DS, etc are doing.... is not.

This passive aggresive attitude in forums like this..., i can't understand it. How difficult it's to admit Switch is doing amazing and PS4 is doing it too, each on their own terms?.

On topic: People seem to not learn from last year when some people expected 20M sold for Switch, and even more and we are seeing again some predictions of 25-30M this year....Nintendo already said they expect to ship 17'5M this FY and that's what's going to happen. VGC correctly tracked Switch ending 2018 at about 29'5M sold to consumers with almost 3M units on shelves. So let's say Switch sells to consumers 3'5M this year at the end of March (which is the pace VGC is showing). That will put Switch around 33M sold to consumers by March end. So if they reach their target of 17'5M shipped for the FY that will put shipment almost at 35'0-35'5M. That's still 2'0-2'5M units on shelves, and at this period of the year that's a lot. So, maybe they won't reach the goal, or Switch is selling even better than VGC is showing. That's why we should wait first to see official shipment numbers before expecting what Switch is going to do in 2019 and beyond...And expecting Switch to sell from 16M in 2018 to more than 25M in 2019 is almost ridiculous....Let's see first if they can match a pace that take the console to 19-20M first.

@bolded: PS2, PS3, Xbox 360 and the DS and Gameboy if you include handhelds. So not as rare as you might think.

@underlined: This is because the age doesn't factor nearly as much as you might think. But the real problem is that many Sony fans seem to feel it necessary to point that out over and over and over and over again, and generally to downplay the success of the Switch. Of course, at one point one can get sick and tired of it and counter accordingly.

I don't think anybody is denying that the PS4 is doing great, but trying to rub it in that it very narrowly beat a Switch on drought just doesn't go over well.

@the rest of the text:

I don't expect 25-30M to be sold this fiscal year (which started today, incidentally), but considering the amount of high profile titles the console is getting throughout summer and fall (plus anything that Nintendo or anybody else didn't tell us yet), I find it hard to believe those who expect less than 20M. The baseline is already well up compared to last year despite the lack of new titles yet. There may be no Smash this year, but everything else that comes more than outweighs the Smash/PLG duo that is responsible for most of the sales this past year, directly or indirectly.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
colafitte said:

I know some of you are trying a new joke, but now seriously, how many consoles (handhelds or home consoles) have sold around 15M finishing its 6th year(2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 6 complete years) at 300$ base price (in case PS4 does that at the end of 2019 which seems more than possible), after already sold almost 100M the year before....?. That's unprecedented. What Switch, 3DS, etc are doing.... is not.

This passive aggresive attitude in forums like this..., i can't understand it. How difficult it's to admit Switch is doing amazing and PS4 is doing it too, each on their own terms?.

On topic: People seem to not learn from last year when some people expected 20M sold for Switch, and even more and we are seeing again some predictions of 25-30M this year....Nintendo already said they expect to ship 17'5M this FY and that's what's going to happen. VGC correctly tracked Switch ending 2018 at about 29'5M sold to consumers with almost 3M units on shelves. So let's say Switch sells to consumers 3'5M this year at the end of March (which is the pace VGC is showing). That will put Switch around 33M sold to consumers by March end. So if they reach their target of 17'5M shipped for the FY that will put shipment almost at 35'0-35'5M. That's still 2'0-2'5M units on shelves, and at this period of the year that's a lot. So, maybe they won't reach the goal, or Switch is selling even better than VGC is showing. That's why we should wait first to see official shipment numbers before expecting what Switch is going to do in 2019 and beyond...And expecting Switch to sell from 16M in 2018 to more than 25M in 2019 is almost ridiculous....Let's see first if they can match a pace that take the console to 19-20M first.

That 17.5m is for the fiscal year that ended yesterday.  The predictions for 25-30m is for the fiscal year that started today.

Totally gona happen.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

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Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

colafitte said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

That 17.5m is for the fiscal year that ended yesterday.  The predictions for 25-30m is for the fiscal year that started today.

Yeah, i understood that. So, to be clear, you were expecting 25-30M units sold or shipped??. Not that i agree with either but just to be clear.

25m+ Both.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
colafitte said:

I know some of you are trying a new joke, but now seriously, how many consoles (handhelds or home consoles) have sold around 15M finishing its 6th year(2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 6 complete years) at 300$ base price (in case PS4 does that at the end of 2019 which seems more than possible), after already sold almost 100M the year before....?. That's unprecedented. What Switch, 3DS, etc are doing.... is not.

This passive aggresive attitude in forums like this..., i can't understand it. How difficult it's to admit Switch is doing amazing and PS4 is doing it too, each on their own terms?.

On topic: People seem to not learn from last year when some people expected 20M sold for Switch, and even more and we are seeing again some predictions of 25-30M this year....Nintendo already said they expect to ship 17'5M this FY and that's what's going to happen. VGC correctly tracked Switch ending 2018 at about 29'5M sold to consumers with almost 3M units on shelves. So let's say Switch sells to consumers 3'5M this year at the end of March (which is the pace VGC is showing). That will put Switch around 33M sold to consumers by March end. So if they reach their target of 17'5M shipped for the FY that will put shipment almost at 35'0-35'5M. That's still 2'0-2'5M units on shelves, and at this period of the year that's a lot. So, maybe they won't reach the goal, or Switch is selling even better than VGC is showing. That's why we should wait first to see official shipment numbers before expecting what Switch is going to do in 2019 and beyond...And expecting Switch to sell from 16M in 2018 to more than 25M in 2019 is almost ridiculous....Let's see first if they can match a pace that take the console to 19-20M first.

@bolded: PS2, PS3, Xbox 360 and the DS and Gameboy if you include handhelds. So not as rare as you might think.

@underlined: This is because the age doesn't factor nearly as much as you might think. But the real problem is that many Sony fans seem to feel it necessary to point that out over and over and over and over again, and generally to downplay the success of the Switch. Of course, at one point one can get sick and tired of it and counter accordingly.

I don't think anybody is denying that the PS4 is doing great, but trying to rub it in that it very narrowly beat a Switch on drought just doesn't go over well.

@the rest of the text:

I don't expect 25-30M to be sold this fiscal year (which started today, incidentally), but considering the amount of high profile titles the console is getting throughout summer and fall (plus anything that Nintendo or anybody else didn't tell us yet), I find it hard to believe those who expect less than 20M. The baseline is already well up compared to last year despite the lack of new titles yet. There may be no Smash this year, but everything else that comes more than outweighs the Smash/PLG duo that is responsible for most of the sales this past year, directly or indirectly.

Neither of those consoles did sell 15 or more at $300 or more by the time its 6th year ended. Those were the conditions i specifically noted because they are relevant to what i was saying. PS2 was not a $300, PS3 and X360 never sold more than 15M in a year, DS and Gameboy never costed that much,...etc.

Age is relevant at the time to consider performance in a console, i won't change my opinion on that. Every Sony fan downplaying Switch success is wrong. They can justify why Switch is doing what or that, but Switch as a console/portable/hybrid is a success. I can understand you getting tired, as me getting tired of other things i mentioned. But sometimes, it's best no to react to something you consider "downplaying" or "trolling" because then conversation just turns to that.

I can respect anyone expecting 20M shipped for FY2019. A few months ago i admit i was convinced it was impossible, now not that much. In my case i'm not expecting the same growth for shipment than for sales because they not work the same, and this Q4 is a good example. Switch could ship 2'5M but sell almost 4M to consumers. When you accumulate stock left, from previous year you have to sell them first before. That's why i can expect more units sold to consumers than units shipped in 2019. Let's say i expect 18'5M units sold to consumers for 2019. Then i won't surprised if shipments numbers end being 17'5M units.

In my case, i want to wait what Switch does in Q1 2019 because i feel this performance in Q4 2018 is not reliable to predict what Switch is going to do the rest of the year.

Last edited by colafitte - on 01 April 2019

The_Liquid_Laser said:
colafitte said:

Yeah, i understood that. So, to be clear, you were expecting 25-30M units sold or shipped??. Not that i agree with either but just to be clear.

25m+ Both.

Ok. Too much optimistic for me. Like i already explained in other post. I think 40% growth sales to cosnumers in Jan-March 2019 is not going to be translated to the rest of the year. I will be surprised if Switch surpass 20M shipped or sold this year to be honest. I need to see what Nintendo say for FY18 numbers and expectations for FY 2019. It will be interesting...



colafitte said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

25m+ Both.

Ok. Too much optimistic for me. Like i already explained in other post. I think 40% growth sales to cosnumers in Jan-March 2019 is not going to be translated to the rest of the year. I will be surprised if Switch surpass 20M shipped or sold this year to be honest. I need to see what Nintendo say for FY18 numbers and expectations for FY 2019. It will be interesting...

You don't think Nintendo has a strong release schedule lined up for the second half of 2019?



colafitte said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

@bolded: PS2, PS3, Xbox 360 and the DS and Gameboy if you include handhelds. So not as rare as you might think.

@underlined: This is because the age doesn't factor nearly as much as you might think. But the real problem is that many Sony fans seem to feel it necessary to point that out over and over and over and over again, and generally to downplay the success of the Switch. Of course, at one point one can get sick and tired of it and counter accordingly.

I don't think anybody is denying that the PS4 is doing great, but trying to rub it in that it very narrowly beat a Switch on drought just doesn't go over well.

@the rest of the text:

I don't expect 25-30M to be sold this fiscal year (which started today, incidentally), but considering the amount of high profile titles the console is getting throughout summer and fall (plus anything that Nintendo or anybody else didn't tell us yet), I find it hard to believe those who expect less than 20M. The baseline is already well up compared to last year despite the lack of new titles yet. There may be no Smash this year, but everything else that comes more than outweighs the Smash/PLG duo that is responsible for most of the sales this past year, directly or indirectly.

Neither of those consoles did sell 15 or more at $300 or more by the time its 6th year ended. Those were the conditions i specifically noted because they are relevant to what i was saying. PS2 was not a $300, PS3 and X360 never sold more than 15M in a year, DS and Gameboy never costed that much,...etc.

Age is relevant at the time to consider performance in a console, i won't change my opinion on that. Every Sony fan downplaying Switch success is wrong. They can justify why Switch is doing what or that, but Switch as a console/portable/hybrid is a success. I can understand you getting tired, as me getting tired of other things i mentioned. But sometimes, it's best no to react to something you consider "downplaying" or "trolling" because then conversation just turns to that.

I can respect anyone expecting 20M shipped for FY2019. A few months ago i admit i was convinced it was impossible, now not that much. In my case i'm not expecting the same growth for shipment than for sales because they not work the same, and this Q4 is a good example. Switch could ship 2'5M but sell almost 4M to consumers. When you accumulate stock left, from previous year you have to sell them first before. That's why i can expect more units sold to consumers than units shipped in 2019. Let's say i expect 18'5M units sold to consumers for 2019. Then i won't surprised if shipments numbers end being 17'5M units.

In my case, i want to wait what Switch does in Q1 2019 because i feel this performance in Q4 2018 is not reliable to predict what Switch is going to do the rest of the year.

That's because you are making a bunch of random qualifiers specifically so PS4 is the only one that applies. It's like saying other than DS, what device with 2 screens has sold over 25 million in a given year and 150 million lifetime.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

The_Liquid_Laser said:
colafitte said:

Ok. Too much optimistic for me. Like i already explained in other post. I think 40% growth sales to cosnumers in Jan-March 2019 is not going to be translated to the rest of the year. I will be surprised if Switch surpass 20M shipped or sold this year to be honest. I need to see what Nintendo say for FY18 numbers and expectations for FY 2019. It will be interesting...

You don't think Nintendo has a strong release schedule lined up for the second half of 2019?

When did he say that?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.