You don't think Nintendo has a strong release schedule lined up for the second half of 2019?
It has..., but not much stronger than last year in my opinion and besides, there's a point where better software can do so much for growing hardware sales. There's a point when price cut and deals work way better than software new releases. And here is when it comes one of my controversial opinions. The more Switch sells, the less i think there will be a price cut. And considering my prediction is based in not happening a revision either, i found my prediction for Switch in fact, really optimistic. If there is a revision/price cut, then my prediction will become completely wrong. I just think Nintendo this gen is going to adapt a strategy more based in raw profits than raw sales, so if they can sell less but a more profit, they will do that. In other words, i think Nintendo will prefer to sell 18M Switch at $300 than to sell 20M at $250.
I see where you are coming from. You see this coming year as fairly similar to last year.
My expectations for the coming year are pretty different from last year. Last year Switch had 2 big titles: Pokemon Let's Go and Smash, and they were both at the end of the year. This year Switch will have 3-4 big titles: Mario Maker, Link's Awakening, Pokemon, Animal Crossing (probably). Also it will have more small-medium titles to fill in the gaps. Also Switch is going to have significantly more third party titles this year.
On top of that, I do expect Switch to get a revision this year that is the equivalent to the 2DS. I.e. some smaller/cheaper version that plays Switch games. (To be fair I expect the PS4 to get a revision/price cut this year too.) They won't be sacrificing profit with a model like this, because it will be cheaper to make.
So, my prediction is different from yours, because we see this year playing out differently. Nothing we can do now but sit back and see what happens.