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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 16 March 2019

The_Liquid_Laser said:
colafitte said:

Ok. Too much optimistic for me. Like i already explained in other post. I think 40% growth sales to cosnumers in Jan-March 2019 is not going to be translated to the rest of the year. I will be surprised if Switch surpass 20M shipped or sold this year to be honest. I need to see what Nintendo say for FY18 numbers and expectations for FY 2019. It will be interesting...

You don't think Nintendo has a strong release schedule lined up for the second half of 2019?

It has..., but not much stronger than last year in my opinion and besides, there's a point where better software can do so much for growing hardware sales. There's a point when price cut and deals work way better than software new releases. And here is when it comes one of my controversial opinions. The more Switch sells, the less i think there will be a price cut. And considering my prediction is based in not happening a revision either, i found my prediction for Switch in fact, really optimistic. If there is a revision/price cut, then my prediction will become completely wrong. I just think Nintendo this gen is going to adapt a strategy more based in raw profits than raw sales, so if they can sell less but a more profit, they will do that. In other words, i think Nintendo will prefer to sell 18M Switch at $300 than to sell 20M at $250.



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zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

Neither of those consoles did sell 15 or more at $300 or more by the time its 6th year ended. Those were the conditions i specifically noted because they are relevant to what i was saying. PS2 was not a $300, PS3 and X360 never sold more than 15M in a year, DS and Gameboy never costed that much,...etc.

Age is relevant at the time to consider performance in a console, i won't change my opinion on that. Every Sony fan downplaying Switch success is wrong. They can justify why Switch is doing what or that, but Switch as a console/portable/hybrid is a success. I can understand you getting tired, as me getting tired of other things i mentioned. But sometimes, it's best no to react to something you consider "downplaying" or "trolling" because then conversation just turns to that.

I can respect anyone expecting 20M shipped for FY2019. A few months ago i admit i was convinced it was impossible, now not that much. In my case i'm not expecting the same growth for shipment than for sales because they not work the same, and this Q4 is a good example. Switch could ship 2'5M but sell almost 4M to consumers. When you accumulate stock left, from previous year you have to sell them first before. That's why i can expect more units sold to consumers than units shipped in 2019. Let's say i expect 18'5M units sold to consumers for 2019. Then i won't surprised if shipments numbers end being 17'5M units.

In my case, i want to wait what Switch does in Q1 2019 because i feel this performance in Q4 2018 is not reliable to predict what Switch is going to do the rest of the year.

That's because you are making a bunch of random qualifiers specifically so PS4 is the only one that applies. It's like saying other than DS, what device with 2 screens has sold over 25 million in a given year and 150 million lifetime.

Well, those were my arbitrary conditions. You can accept them or not. But they were based in total money that generates that console: price+sales. In that regard, no console has ever done that well meeting those conditions and generating that much money. That was my point.



colafitte said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

@bolded: PS2, PS3, Xbox 360 and the DS and Gameboy if you include handhelds. So not as rare as you might think.

@underlined: This is because the age doesn't factor nearly as much as you might think. But the real problem is that many Sony fans seem to feel it necessary to point that out over and over and over and over again, and generally to downplay the success of the Switch. Of course, at one point one can get sick and tired of it and counter accordingly.

I don't think anybody is denying that the PS4 is doing great, but trying to rub it in that it very narrowly beat a Switch on drought just doesn't go over well.

@the rest of the text:

I don't expect 25-30M to be sold this fiscal year (which started today, incidentally), but considering the amount of high profile titles the console is getting throughout summer and fall (plus anything that Nintendo or anybody else didn't tell us yet), I find it hard to believe those who expect less than 20M. The baseline is already well up compared to last year despite the lack of new titles yet. There may be no Smash this year, but everything else that comes more than outweighs the Smash/PLG duo that is responsible for most of the sales this past year, directly or indirectly.

Neither of those consoles did sell 15 or more at $300 or more by the time its 6th year ended. Those were the conditions i specifically noted because they are relevant to what i was saying. PS2 was not a $300, PS3 and X360 never sold more than 15M in a year, DS and Gameboy never costed that much,...etc.

Age is relevant at the time to consider performance in a console, i won't change my opinion on that. Every Sony fan downplaying Switch success is wrong. They can justify why Switch is doing what or not, but Switch as a console/portable/hybrid is a success. I can understand you getting tired, as me getting tired of other things i mentioned. But sometimes, it's best no to react to something you consider "downplaying" or "trolling" because then conversation just turns to that.

I can respect anyone expecting 20M shipped for FY2019. A few months ago i admit i was convinced it was impossible, now not that much. In my case i'm not expecting the same growth for shipment than for sales because they not work the same, and this Q4 is a good example. Switch could ship 2'5M but sell almost 4M to consumers. When you accumulate stock left, from previous year you have to sell them first before. That's why i can expect more units sold to consumers than units shipped in 2019. Let's say i expect 18'5M units sold to consumers for 2019. Then i won't surprised if shipments numbers end being 17'5M units.

In my case, i want to wait what Switch does in Q1 2019 because i feel this performance in Q4 2018 is not reliable to predict what Switch is going to do the rest of the year.

Well, neither did the PS4 yet. It could well end up selling only 13 or 14M at the end of the year, which would be in line with PS360 sales at the time. But that's something we're only gonna see by the end of the year.

About your last sentence, did you mean Q1 of the financial year or of the calendar year?



BlackBeauty said:

State Of Play really boosted the PS4.

Good for them just like directs always boosted Nintendo hardware.

Aren't these figures before State of Play?



Bofferbrauer2 said:
colafitte said:

Neither of those consoles did sell 15 or more at $300 or more by the time its 6th year ended. Those were the conditions i specifically noted because they are relevant to what i was saying. PS2 was not a $300, PS3 and X360 never sold more than 15M in a year, DS and Gameboy never costed that much,...etc.

Age is relevant at the time to consider performance in a console, i won't change my opinion on that. Every Sony fan downplaying Switch success is wrong. They can justify why Switch is doing what or not, but Switch as a console/portable/hybrid is a success. I can understand you getting tired, as me getting tired of other things i mentioned. But sometimes, it's best no to react to something you consider "downplaying" or "trolling" because then conversation just turns to that.

I can respect anyone expecting 20M shipped for FY2019. A few months ago i admit i was convinced it was impossible, now not that much. In my case i'm not expecting the same growth for shipment than for sales because they not work the same, and this Q4 is a good example. Switch could ship 2'5M but sell almost 4M to consumers. When you accumulate stock left, from previous year you have to sell them first before. That's why i can expect more units sold to consumers than units shipped in 2019. Let's say i expect 18'5M units sold to consumers for 2019. Then i won't surprised if shipments numbers end being 17'5M units.

In my case, i want to wait what Switch does in Q1 2019 because i feel this performance in Q4 2018 is not reliable to predict what Switch is going to do the rest of the year.

Well, neither did the PS4 yet. It could well end up selling only 13 or 14M at the end of the year, which would be in line with PS360 sales at the time. But that's something we're only gonna see by the end of the year.

About your last sentence, did you mean Q1 of the financial year or of the calendar year?

That's why i said "in case that this happen that seems probable". Of course, is not a guarantee either, but i'm very confident.

In this case i meant Q1 Financial Year (sorry for the confussion). April to end of June 2019 to be exact.



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colafitte said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

You don't think Nintendo has a strong release schedule lined up for the second half of 2019?

It has..., but not much stronger than last year in my opinion and besides, there's a point where better software can do so much for growing hardware sales. There's a point when price cut and deals work way better than software new releases. And here is when it comes one of my controversial opinions. The more Switch sells, the less i think there will be a price cut. And considering my prediction is based in not happening a revision either, i found my prediction for Switch in fact, really optimistic. If there is a revision/price cut, then my prediction will become completely wrong. I just think Nintendo this gen is going to adapt a strategy more based in raw profits than raw sales, so if they can sell less but a more profit, they will do that. In other words, i think Nintendo will prefer to sell 18M Switch at $300 than to sell 20M at $250.

I see where you are coming from.  You see this coming year as fairly similar to last year. 

My expectations for the coming year are pretty different from last year.  Last year Switch had 2 big titles: Pokemon Let's Go and Smash, and they were both at the end of the year.  This year Switch will have 3-4 big titles: Mario Maker, Link's Awakening, Pokemon, Animal Crossing (probably).  Also it will have more small-medium titles to fill in the gaps.  Also Switch is going to have significantly more third party titles this year.

On top of that, I do expect Switch to get a revision this year that is the equivalent to the 2DS.  I.e. some smaller/cheaper version that plays Switch games.  (To be fair I expect the PS4 to get a revision/price cut this year too.)  They won't be sacrificing profit with a model like this, because it will be cheaper to make.

So, my prediction is different from yours, because we see this year playing out differently.  Nothing we can do now but sit back and see what happens.



PS4 is still holding very well in the dead periods, only Xmas period, and then right after that yearly total, will tell us how much it's declining. But it's a safe guess that it will be able to stay on the market another two years after PS5 launch, if this will happen in Q42020. Should it happen later, then the survival of PS4 as entry-level Sony console could be shorter, but this will also depend not only on SW support, as with a huge user base, at least the 3rd party one should be almost granted for a long time, but also on PS5 base model launch price and the date of its first significant price drop. And Sony's plans, obviously, but PS5 pricing evolution will depend on them and it will be a good clue about them.



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TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Without beating a dead horse, I think its safe to say that the Switch will not obtain PS4 sales. The reason is because I seriously don't think Switch can hold on for six years like a PlayStation can. The caveat will be if the Switch can do a mid gen refresh a la Pro. Even then, its going to be one heck of a task for Switch to catch up. I still have imposed a hard limit of 65 million for Switch and about 115 million for the PS4.



CosmicSex said:
Without beating a dead horse, I think its safe to say that the Switch will not obtain PS4 sales. The reason is because I seriously don't think Switch can hold on for six years like a PlayStation can. The caveat will be if the Switch can do a mid gen refresh a la Pro. Even then, its going to be one heck of a task for Switch to catch up. I still have imposed a hard limit of 65 million for Switch and about 115 million for the PS4.

I agree that Switch wont catch PS4 but 65 million? It's already halfway there, can you show me one successful console that has sold 50% of its lifetime sales in 2 years?

Just out of curiosity, what do you expect Switch sales to be at the end of this year?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

CosmicSex said:
Without beating a dead horse, I think its safe to say that the Switch will not obtain PS4 sales. The reason is because I seriously don't think Switch can hold on for six years like a PlayStation can. The caveat will be if the Switch can do a mid gen refresh a la Pro. Even then, its going to be one heck of a task for Switch to catch up. I still have imposed a hard limit of 65 million for Switch and about 115 million for the PS4.

No and no to both of your LTD predictions. The switch will blow past 65 million and the PS4 will most likely end up at 125 million imo. By the end of 2019, the switch will already pretty close to 65 million and will surpass it by the end of 2020