Definitely? No. Every new gen deals a new set of card so it is a possibility, but there is nothing in what you said, which is indicating Xbox will win next gen.
Yeah, you're right, Sony gets cocky. But so far they have minor missteps not too much people care about. Cross-play was a desaster - but most people don't care and Sony got around and fixed it. Yeah, they are pissing off japanese niche devs with the age restriction applied from US headquarter, but again we talk about niche games here. Nothing which will hurt Sony badly, only give their images a few cracks here and there.
Let's see what could go wrong on Sonys side, and let's see what MS needs to do to succeed.
What Sony could do wrong we seen mostly with the PS3. Sony brought an expensive system, which was hard to program for (multicore-programming isn't easy to begin with, having such strange different working cores made it not easier). I am doubtful they will made these errors again. They have seen how they can price successful with PS4 and the PC-hardware thing works so well for them, that I see no reason why they should deviate from that next gen. After all they are not Nintendo, who are trying new stuff all the time.
They also launched the PS3 last in their best region: europe. While I think execs might do that error again, it seems unlikely.
While it is easy to see that Xbox can win against PS in the US, if they lay their cards right, europe and japan are uphill battles. You could argue japan isn't that important, as it is not that big a market, but still a lot of important devs are located there. I think MS could try again what they did with X360: try to cooperate with japanese devs. They also might strengthen their bonds with Nintendo, who do well in Japan. Offering a developer-program together with Nintendo, which allows it for devs to easily develop multiplats for both platforms might be a great move to woo some japanese devs.
MS also has the resources to do better in europe. They have to get FIFA though. That is simply extremely important. Currently multiplats sell usually double the units on PS4 compared to XBox One. But FIFA 18 sold 11.8M on PS4 and 3.14M on XBox One according to VGC. This is much more in favor of Playstation and shows why the brand is so strong in europe. MS needs some cooperations with EA, maybe additional exclusive content, better networking, having an attractive FIFA launch bundle in europe or other stuff that makes people think Xbox is the superior platform for FIFA. Also MS needs to be stronger in smaller countries, something which Sony has already down.
All of this needs a lot of money - which MS has. Also I think Gamepass is MS strong card. If they use Gamepass clever to make the next XBox more atrtactive it might work well. Say, the first months after launch the new device comes with three months gamepass. Heck, if they have backward compatibility to Xbox One and come with Gamepass, they already have at launch an attractive library to play for free.
So, is it possible? Sure, new gen, new possibilities. If Sony bothes the launch and MS does things very right they could get a lead over Sony. But odds are stacked against MS.