They did learn from their mistakes, but I don't know if that will be enough to compete with Sony.
Sony pretty much needs to fuck up badly to give Microsoft a fighting chance outside US and UK.
But even if they don't win, I expect them to be a lot closer on Sony numbers then they did this gen. They just need some compelling exclusives, because that's what was mostly missing this gen.
The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454
List as Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing
The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/