I edited to 130m, but I don't see how it can do more than that. It should be at about 91m at the end of the year. Next year it will probably be down a bit, maybe 17m for the year, bringing it's total up to 108m. 2020 should be it's smallest year ever since PS5 is coming Holiday 2020 (PS3 sales in 2013 were down by 33% compared to 2012 as a reference), so PS4 might hit 120m by the end of 2020 if it's lucky. Each subsequent year after that it will be down more and more until it is discontinued. You have to remember, PS2's price dropped as low as $100, PS4 is highly unlikely to drop below $150 because they'd have to sell at a loss to go lower, so it won't have the kind of post-generation legs that PS2 had.
I still think that since it's still $300 a drop to $200 could reach a lot of new, lower income consumers. Since PS5 will likely be a $400-$500 product I could see it having decent legs into next gen as a cheap alternative. I can also see Sony dragging out this gen as long as possible while they're onto a good thing, and perhaps not putting out PS5 til 2021.
PS4 is nearing saturation, so the drop to 200 may not increase much of the sales. But who knows if they can drop to 100 (considering the deals on BF they could be profitable under 150 already, so in 2 years a 99 could happen).
Still 130M is very possible.
Just under 20 million after the ps2 release
well I guess they have legs then...
All had legs, PS1 and PS2 had legs after their successor launched, PS3 had legs during the gen (to extended gen made its leg shorter when replacement came, plus they never dropped the price bellowe 149 or 99). So it's very likely PS4 could have 20-30M sold during the gen after.
So WiiU is last gen and should be Wii+WiiU winning against PS3 and X360 or was WiiU this gen and will be WiiU+Switch against PS4 and X1 with next gen PS5 and X2 having no competition for a long time?
Well in the context of this thread it would not matter. The OP is using the numbers on the Vgcartz Home Page. As you can see the Wii U is not there. The Wii U will not impact the market share the OP mentioned.
This talk can go oooooon for so looooong. But for now lets keep it to the market share Vgchartz provided.
Well that would be a very arbitrary arrangement that would be better to say "Can PS4 outsell X1 and Swtich combined?" instead of how it was done. But yes we can agree on discussing what was the intention of OP.
Even if X1 do only 50M and Switch stop at 3DS levels 75M (both are low probability) PS4 would already need almost all its potential to remain over 50%.