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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the PS4 be able to stay above 50% market share?

 

Do you think it'll be over 50% when all's said and done?

Yes 35 44.87%
 
No 43 55.13%
 
Total:78
Jranation on 19 December 2018
DonFerrari said:
Jranation said:

Gaming media sites does put Switch in the same gen as PS4 and Xbox One. Especially how much we compare the Switch to those 2. 

So WiiU is last gen and should be Wii+WiiU winning against PS3 and X360 or was WiiU this gen and will be WiiU+Switch against PS4 and X1 with next gen PS5 and X2 having no competition for a long time?

Well in the context of this thread it would not matter. The OP is using the numbers on the Vgcartz Home Page. As you can see the Wii U is not there. The Wii U will not impact the market share the OP mentioned. 

 

This talk can go oooooon for so looooong. But for now lets keep it to the market share Vgchartz provided. 



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DonFerrari on 19 December 2018
curl-6 said:
shikamaru317 said:

I edited to 130m, but I don't see how it can do more than that. It should be at about 91m at the end of the year. Next year it will probably be down a bit, maybe 17m for the year, bringing it's total up to 108m. 2020 should be it's smallest year ever since PS5 is coming Holiday 2020 (PS3 sales in 2013 were down by 33% compared to 2012 as a reference), so PS4 might hit 120m by the end of 2020 if it's lucky. Each subsequent year after that it will be down more and more until it is discontinued. You have to remember, PS2's price dropped as low as $100, PS4 is highly unlikely to drop below $150 because they'd have to sell at a loss to go lower, so it won't have the kind of post-generation legs that PS2 had. 

I still think that since it's still $300 a drop to $200 could reach a lot of new, lower income consumers. Since PS5 will likely be a $400-$500 product I could see it having decent legs into next gen as a cheap alternative. I can also see Sony dragging out this gen as long as possible while they're onto a good thing, and perhaps not putting out PS5 til 2021.

PS4 is nearing saturation, so the drop to 200 may not increase much of the sales. But who knows if they can drop to 100 (considering the deals on BF they could be profitable under 150 already, so in 2 years a 99 could happen).

Still 130M is very possible.

Intrinsic said:
betacon said:

Just under 20 million after the ps2 release

What????

well I guess they have legs then...

All had legs, PS1 and PS2 had legs after their successor launched, PS3 had legs during the gen (to extended gen made its leg shorter when replacement came, plus they never dropped the price bellowe 149 or 99). So it's very likely PS4 could have 20-30M sold during the gen after.

Jranation said:
DonFerrari said:

So WiiU is last gen and should be Wii+WiiU winning against PS3 and X360 or was WiiU this gen and will be WiiU+Switch against PS4 and X1 with next gen PS5 and X2 having no competition for a long time?

Well in the context of this thread it would not matter. The OP is using the numbers on the Vgcartz Home Page. As you can see the Wii U is not there. The Wii U will not impact the market share the OP mentioned. 

This talk can go oooooon for so looooong. But for now lets keep it to the market share Vgchartz provided. 

Well that would be a very arbitrary arrangement that would be better to say "Can PS4 outsell X1 and Swtich combined?" instead of how it was done. But yes we can agree on discussing what was the intention of OP.

Even if X1 do only 50M and Switch stop at 3DS levels 75M (both are low probability) PS4 would already need almost all its potential to remain over 50%.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Intrinsic on 19 December 2018
Blood_Tears said:
Switch is not the same gen as PS4. PS4 already won this gen against X1 and Wii U. Regardless if people want to forget about the Wii U just because the Switch is selling well, the Wii U happened. Get over it.

All considered i think its best to put the switch in the 8th gen. 

Being that a hardware generation is actually about the games you can play for that platform. And the NS does share a library with the PS4/XB1. And most likely more so than it would ever share with the PS5/XB4 if at all it does.   

DonFerrari said:
If you mean against X1 and Switch, it will be very very hard to achieve 50% market share.
But Nintendo fans need to have a consensus if Switch is same gen as PS4 and X1 or not, because several like to put it as gen 9 even if weaker than gen 8.

I don't think power of the hardware is the main factor when it comes to grouping gens per say. Well... it is, but the NS is "powerful enough" to share some of the games making the rounds in the 8th gen n the PS4/XB1.  



Dr.Vita on 19 December 2018

Most likely not but it's not impossible, it depends on how long Sony will keep PS4 in the market.

Guys Switch released early 2017 only a few months after we got the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X mid-gen upgrades in 2016. And the next Playstation and Xbox consoles will most likely release not earlier than 2020. There's no way to consider the Switch a 9th gen console when it launched alongside the mid-gen upgrades of the 8th generation consoles. In some way we could consider the Switch as a mid-gen upgrade for the Wii U.




Dr.Vita talks about Playstation Vita in 2016!
Playstation Vita Media Create Sales (2014 vs 2015 vs 2016)
Playstation Vita Japan Retail Software Sales (2013 vs 2014 vs 2015 + 2015 LTD Edition)
Prediction: Nothing will outsell PSP anymore (except Playstation home consoles)

DonFerrari on 19 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
Blood_Tears said:
Switch is not the same gen as PS4. PS4 already won this gen against X1 and Wii U. Regardless if people want to forget about the Wii U just because the Switch is selling well, the Wii U happened. Get over it.

All considered i think its best to put the switch in the 8th gen. 

Being that a hardware generation is actually about the games you can play for that platform. And the NS does share a library with the PS4/XB1. And most likely more so than it would ever share with the PS5/XB4 if at all it does.   

DonFerrari said:
If you mean against X1 and Switch, it will be very very hard to achieve 50% market share.
But Nintendo fans need to have a consensus if Switch is same gen as PS4 and X1 or not, because several like to put it as gen 9 even if weaker than gen 8.

I don't think power of the hardware is the main factor when it comes to grouping gens per say. Well... it is, but the NS is "powerful enough" to share some of the games making the rounds in the 8th gen n the PS4/XB1.  

Yes, the shared library makes sense... but for me it's bizarre to call 9th gen a platform that couldn't run gen 8th at similar or better capacity.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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ResilientFighter on 19 December 2018

Yes it will easily since next year is when the price cuts will most likely start allowing a huge boost in consoles sold.



TheBlackNaruto on 19 December 2018
Jumpin said:

a

ironmanDX said:
Nope. Switch is gen 9 though.

Those generation numbers are arbitrary.

So basically you feel they are pointless and would rather just combine all home console sales and compare them and combine all Handheld console sales and compare them? I am legit asking because I see a lot of people saying this about gens and am always curious to how they look at sales.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

FarleyMcFirefly on 19 December 2018

It seems most people think the Switch will cap out at 75-80 million. The 3DS will hit 75-77 by the end of it. I feel like Switch has a strong shot at 100 million.



1doesnotsimply

curl-6 on 19 December 2018

The poll is pretty much a tie right now, so half of all voters think PS4 will outsell Xbox One and Switch combined.

DonFerrari said:
curl-6 said:

I still think that since it's still $300 a drop to $200 could reach a lot of new, lower income consumers. Since PS5 will likely be a $400-$500 product I could see it having decent legs into next gen as a cheap alternative. I can also see Sony dragging out this gen as long as possible while they're onto a good thing, and perhaps not putting out PS5 til 2021.

PS4 is nearing saturation, so the drop to 200 may not increase much of the sales. But who knows if they can drop to 100 (considering the deals on BF they could be profitable under 150 already, so in 2 years a 99 could happen).

Still 130M is very possible.

I keep hearing that PS4 is nearing saturation, and yet it still keeps selling at a monstrous pace. Even if we ignore Nintendo/The Wii, PS4 + Xbone are still a good 40 million units short of PS3 + 360, and that's not accounting for population growth. Most of that 40 million will go to the PS4, so I'd say 120 million is the absolute minimum, with 130 more likely and 150 a strong possibility.



GProgrammer on 19 December 2018

Its going to be hard but possible, remember the OP is talking about the front page, so this is only considering up to the launch of the PS5 and xbox one 2. so probably end 2020.
Reasons
It has a handy lead at the moment
It has been outselling the Switch this year, and this is with Switch having nearly all its big games released
I assume next year will see the release of the biggest franchise of all time, which won't be on the Switch, and only released on the PC months later. GTA6