By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the PS4 be able to stay above 50% market share?

 

Do you think it'll be over 50% when all's said and done?

Yes 35 44.87%
 
No 43 55.13%
 
Total:78
curl-6 said:
DonFerrari said:

You know you can't have both =p if Switch keep selling at PS4 rate then PS4 can't have 50% marketshare

I'm not "having both", I think PS4 will end up with less than 50% marketshare. I just think people are lowballing both PS4 and Switch lifetime numbers. 100 million for Switch and 140 million for PS4 would be my estimates if I had to guess.

I know you aren't, I was just joking.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Around the Network
DonFerrari said:
curl-6 said:

I'm not "having both", I think PS4 will end up with less than 50% marketshare. I just think people are lowballing both PS4 and Switch lifetime numbers. 100 million for Switch and 140 million for PS4 would be my estimates if I had to guess.

I know you aren't, I was just joking.

Ah, my bad, I am chronically incapable of detecting sarcasm. XD



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
DonFerrari said:

I know you aren't, I was just joking.

Ah, my bad, I am chronically incapable of detecting sarcasm. XD

And I'm lifely impaired on being funny.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

That'll be hard.
If Xbox One does 55M, and Switch does at least 60-70M, PS4 has to do 115-125M.
If Xbox One does 60M, and Switch does at least 70-80M, PS4 has to do 130-140M.

It's possible PS5 won't be out until 2021, especially since PS4 is so profitable for them still, and restarting the generation may end up not going as well for them as it did with PS4.
However, we're seeing some signs that suggest 2020 may be more likely, and if that's the case, I don't think PS4 will be able to have the majority of the marketshare. Unless Switch's slows down a lot, but it's such a young system that it's hard to predict for multiple years ahead.

Intrinsic said: 

But while we are on this lets et something straight and I dont want to have to make a thread for this.

Is the NS 8th gen or 9th gen????

I look at it this way.

From what generation do the majority of its games come from? (Not counting classic/emulated games)
That's the generation the console belongs to.



Hiku said:

That'll be hard.
If Xbox One does 55M, and Switch does at least 60-70M, PS4 has to do 115-125M.
If Xbox One does 60M, and Switch does at least 70-80M, PS4 has to do 130-140M.

It's possible PS5 won't be out until 2021, especially since PS4 is so profitable for them still, and restarting the generation may end up not going as well for them as it did with PS4.
However, we're seeing some signs that suggest 2020 may be more likely, and if that's the case, I don't think PS4 will be able to have the majority of the marketshare. Unless Switch's slows down a lot, but it's such a young system that it's hard to predict for multiple years ahead.

Intrinsic said: 

But while we are on this lets et something straight and I dont want to have to make a thread for this.

Is the NS 8th gen or 9th gen????

I look at it this way.

From what generation do the majority of its games come from? (Not counting classic/emulated games)
That's the generation the console belongs to.

Thats how I have always looked at it to. But I keep hearing 9th gen. How or why is the switch a 9th gen console when it was released smack dab in the middle of the 8th gen and has games from other 8th gen consoles and will be unable to run the 9th gen games as dictated by those consoles successors.



Around the Network
Intrinsic said:
Hiku said:

That'll be hard.
If Xbox One does 55M, and Switch does at least 60-70M, PS4 has to do 115-125M.
If Xbox One does 60M, and Switch does at least 70-80M, PS4 has to do 130-140M.

It's possible PS5 won't be out until 2021, especially since PS4 is so profitable for them still, and restarting the generation may end up not going as well for them as it did with PS4.
However, we're seeing some signs that suggest 2020 may be more likely, and if that's the case, I don't think PS4 will be able to have the majority of the marketshare. Unless Switch's slows down a lot, but it's such a young system that it's hard to predict for multiple years ahead.

I look at it this way.

From what generation do the majority of its games come from? (Not counting classic/emulated games)
That's the generation the console belongs to.

Thats how I have always looked at it to. But I keep hearing 9th gen. How or why is the switch a 9th gen console when it was released smack dab in the middle of the 8th gen and has games from other 8th gen consoles and will be unable to run the 9th gen games as dictated by those consoles successors.

I can imagine customers scratching their heads when they say their console is the only current gen (can't say next gen anymore after 2 years on the market) but can't run games the old gen is getting now due to being a weaker HW. Makes a lot of sense in electronics to buy current gen for more expensive but less capable than last gen HW.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Hiku said:

That'll be hard.
If Xbox One does 55M, and Switch does at least 60-70M, PS4 has to do 115-125M.
If Xbox One does 60M, and Switch does at least 70-80M, PS4 has to do 130-140M.

It's possible PS5 won't be out until 2021, especially since PS4 is so profitable for them still, and restarting the generation may end up not going as well for them as it did with PS4.
However, we're seeing some signs that suggest 2020 may be more likely, and if that's the case, I don't think PS4 will be able to have the majority of the marketshare. Unless Switch's slows down a lot, but it's such a young system that it's hard to predict for multiple years ahead.


Honestly it wouldn't surprise me if Sony ride the PS4 train until late 2021, since they're onto such a big thing. They rode the PS3 for 7 years and that was far less successful. And after the PS5 releases, PS4 could continue as a $200 budget alternative, kinda like PS1 did after PS2 came out. I really feel 130 million is the floor for this thing.

As for Xbox One, around 60 million lifetime sounds about right.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Considering the PS4 is in its 5th year its sales against the newer switch is more then acceptable, its genuine amazement this console especially the European and American markets are selling extremely well.  Also don't forget when the PS5 is introduced they will get that little bit of market share they might have lost when they have both sku's selling at the same time.



The debate is muddied by the front page is only showing one of Nintendo's two consoles for this gen. Including WiiU, PS4 is barely over 50% right now, and will certainly fall below in the first half of next year.

The answer will change as we move into the future, however. Switch is currently considered a "current gen" console - in other words, eighth gen - but once PS5 and XB2 come out, I think it is likely that that most everyone will retrospectively re-assess Switch as ninth gen with those two. If only because it keeps things neat, and people like neat. When that happens, you can guarantee that PS4 will end with well over 50% of market share for the generation.



In retrospect, probably would've been better off just titling the thread "do you think PS4 can outsell Switch and Xbox One combined?" XD



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.