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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the PS4 be able to stay above 50% market share?

 

Do you think it'll be over 50% when all's said and done?

Yes 35 44.87%
 
No 43 55.13%
 
Total:78
JRPGfan on 19 December 2018

Let see....

PS4 ends up 130m-140m
XB1 ends up 50-60m
Switch ends up ~70-80m ?

Potentially it might actually stay above 50%.
Though xbox + nintendo should be able to not give sony that much market share.



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curl-6 on 19 December 2018

Also, in addition to lowballing the PS4's lifetime sales, it baffles me how people continue to similarly lowball the Switch. Honestly, any number below 80 million seems rather absurd at this point. It's selling on par with the PS4 and is one of the fastest selling systems ever, it would be basically unheard of for such a system to fall short of 80 million lifetime. It's going to be more than half of that before it's even 3 years old.



DonFerrari on 19 December 2018
curl-6 said:

The poll is pretty much a tie right now, so half of all voters think PS4 will outsell Xbox One and Switch combined.

DonFerrari said:

PS4 is nearing saturation, so the drop to 200 may not increase much of the sales. But who knows if they can drop to 100 (considering the deals on BF they could be profitable under 150 already, so in 2 years a 99 could happen).

Still 130M is very possible.

I keep hearing that PS4 is nearing saturation, and yet it still keeps selling at a monstrous pace. Even if we ignore Nintendo/The Wii, PS4 + Xbone are still a good 40 million units short of PS3 + 360, and that's not accounting for population growth. Most of that 40 million will go to the PS4, so I'd say 120 million is the absolute minimum, with 130 more likely and 150 a strong possibility.

Yes PS4 is doing fantastic and 120M seems like lower limit and 150 not impossible. But Switch will do good number plus X1 is not that shabby. It's hard to achieve 50% with this level of competition.

GProgrammer said:
Its going to be hard but possible, remember the OP is talking about the front page, so this is only considering up to the launch of the PS5 and xbox one 2. so probably end 2020.
Reasons
It has a handy lead at the moment
It has been outselling the Switch this year, and this is with Switch having nearly all its big games released
I assume next year will see the release of the biggest franchise of all time, which won't be on the Switch, and only released on the PC months later. GTA6

Seeing from this angle then it's very possible.

curl-6 said:

Also, in addition to lowballing the PS4's lifetime sales, it baffles me how people continue to similarly lowball the Switch. Honestly, any number below 80 million seems rather absurd at this point. It's selling on par with the PS4 and is one of the fastest selling systems ever, it would be basically unheard of for such a system to fall short of 80 million lifetime. It's going to be more than half of that before it's even 3 years old.

You know you can't have both =p if Switch keep selling at PS4 rate then PS4 can't have 50% marketshare



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

curl-6 on 19 December 2018
DonFerrari said:

curl-6 said:

Also, in addition to lowballing the PS4's lifetime sales, it baffles me how people continue to similarly lowball the Switch. Honestly, any number below 80 million seems rather absurd at this point. It's selling on par with the PS4 and is one of the fastest selling systems ever, it would be basically unheard of for such a system to fall short of 80 million lifetime. It's going to be more than half of that before it's even 3 years old.

You know you can't have both =p if Switch keep selling at PS4 rate then PS4 can't have 50% marketshare

I'm not "having both", I think PS4 will end up with less than 50% marketshare. I just think people are lowballing both PS4 and Switch lifetime numbers. Slightly over 100 million for Switch and slightly over 140 million for PS4 would be my estimates if I had to guess.



SecondWar on 19 December 2018
ironmanDX said:
Nope. Switch is gen 9 though.

Generally though it i not. And I personally I think people estimate the release of the PS/Xbox successors way too early.



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DonFerrari on 19 December 2018
curl-6 said:
DonFerrari said:

You know you can't have both =p if Switch keep selling at PS4 rate then PS4 can't have 50% marketshare

I'm not "having both", I think PS4 will end up with less than 50% marketshare. I just think people are lowballing both PS4 and Switch lifetime numbers. 100 million for Switch and 140 million for PS4 would be my estimates if I had to guess.

I know you aren't, I was just joking.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

curl-6 on 19 December 2018
DonFerrari said:
curl-6 said:

I'm not "having both", I think PS4 will end up with less than 50% marketshare. I just think people are lowballing both PS4 and Switch lifetime numbers. 100 million for Switch and 140 million for PS4 would be my estimates if I had to guess.

I know you aren't, I was just joking.

Ah, my bad, I am chronically incapable of detecting sarcasm. XD



DonFerrari on 19 December 2018
curl-6 said:
DonFerrari said:

I know you aren't, I was just joking.

Ah, my bad, I am chronically incapable of detecting sarcasm. XD

And I'm lifely impaired on being funny.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Intrinsic on 19 December 2018
Hiku said:

That'll be hard.
If Xbox One does 55M, and Switch does at least 60-70M, PS4 has to do 115-125M.
If Xbox One does 60M, and Switch does at least 70-80M, PS4 has to do 130-140M.

It's possible PS5 won't be out until 2021, especially since PS4 is so profitable for them still, and restarting the generation may end up not going as well for them as it did with PS4.
However, we're seeing some signs that suggest 2020 may be more likely, and if that's the case, I don't think PS4 will be able to have the majority of the marketshare. Unless Switch's slows down a lot, but it's such a young system that it's hard to predict for multiple years ahead.

Intrinsic said: 

But while we are on this lets et something straight and I dont want to have to make a thread for this.

Is the NS 8th gen or 9th gen????

I look at it this way.

From what generation do the majority of its games come from? (Not counting classic/emulated games)
That's the generation the console belongs to.

Thats how I have always looked at it to. But I keep hearing 9th gen. How or why is the switch a 9th gen console when it was released smack dab in the middle of the 8th gen and has games from other 8th gen consoles and will be unable to run the 9th gen games as dictated by those consoles successors.



DonFerrari on 19 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
Hiku said:

That'll be hard.
If Xbox One does 55M, and Switch does at least 60-70M, PS4 has to do 115-125M.
If Xbox One does 60M, and Switch does at least 70-80M, PS4 has to do 130-140M.

It's possible PS5 won't be out until 2021, especially since PS4 is so profitable for them still, and restarting the generation may end up not going as well for them as it did with PS4.
However, we're seeing some signs that suggest 2020 may be more likely, and if that's the case, I don't think PS4 will be able to have the majority of the marketshare. Unless Switch's slows down a lot, but it's such a young system that it's hard to predict for multiple years ahead.

I look at it this way.

From what generation do the majority of its games come from? (Not counting classic/emulated games)
That's the generation the console belongs to.

Thats how I have always looked at it to. But I keep hearing 9th gen. How or why is the switch a 9th gen console when it was released smack dab in the middle of the 8th gen and has games from other 8th gen consoles and will be unable to run the 9th gen games as dictated by those consoles successors.

I can imagine customers scratching their heads when they say their console is the only current gen (can't say next gen anymore after 2 years on the market) but can't run games the old gen is getting now due to being a weaker HW. Makes a lot of sense in electronics to buy current gen for more expensive but less capable than last gen HW.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."