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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the PS4 be able to stay above 50% market share?

 

Do you think it'll be over 50% when all's said and done?

Yes 35 44.87%
 
No 43 55.13%
 
Total:78

Yes it will easily since next year is when the price cuts will most likely start allowing a huge boost in consoles sold.



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Jumpin said:

a

ironmanDX said:
Nope. Switch is gen 9 though.

Those generation numbers are arbitrary.

So basically you feel they are pointless and would rather just combine all home console sales and compare them and combine all Handheld console sales and compare them? I am legit asking because I see a lot of people saying this about gens and am always curious to how they look at sales.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

It seems most people think the Switch will cap out at 75-80 million. The 3DS will hit 75-77 by the end of it. I feel like Switch has a strong shot at 100 million.



1doesnotsimply

The poll is pretty much a tie right now, so half of all voters think PS4 will outsell Xbox One and Switch combined.

DonFerrari said:
curl-6 said:

I still think that since it's still $300 a drop to $200 could reach a lot of new, lower income consumers. Since PS5 will likely be a $400-$500 product I could see it having decent legs into next gen as a cheap alternative. I can also see Sony dragging out this gen as long as possible while they're onto a good thing, and perhaps not putting out PS5 til 2021.

PS4 is nearing saturation, so the drop to 200 may not increase much of the sales. But who knows if they can drop to 100 (considering the deals on BF they could be profitable under 150 already, so in 2 years a 99 could happen).

Still 130M is very possible.


I keep hearing that PS4 is nearing saturation, and yet it still keeps selling at a monstrous pace. Even if we ignore Nintendo/The Wii, PS4 + Xbone are still a good 40 million units short of PS3 + 360, and that's not accounting for population growth. Most of that 40 million will go to the PS4, so I'd say 120 million is the absolute minimum, with 130 more likely and 150 a strong possibility.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Its going to be hard but possible, remember the OP is talking about the front page, so this is only considering up to the launch of the PS5 and xbox one 2. so probably end 2020.
Reasons
It has a handy lead at the moment
It has been outselling the Switch this year, and this is with Switch having nearly all its big games released
I assume next year will see the release of the biggest franchise of all time, which won't be on the Switch, and only released on the PC months later. GTA6



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Let see....

PS4 ends up 130m-140m
XB1 ends up 50-60m
Switch ends up ~70-80m ?

Potentially it might actually stay above 50%.
Though xbox + nintendo should be able to not give sony that much market share.



Also, in addition to lowballing the PS4's lifetime sales, it baffles me how people continue to similarly lowball the Switch. Honestly, any number below 80 million seems rather absurd at this point. It's selling on par with the PS4 and is one of the fastest selling systems ever, it would be basically unheard of for such a system to fall short of 80 million lifetime. It's going to be more than half of that before it's even 3 years old.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:

The poll is pretty much a tie right now, so half of all voters think PS4 will outsell Xbox One and Switch combined.

DonFerrari said:

PS4 is nearing saturation, so the drop to 200 may not increase much of the sales. But who knows if they can drop to 100 (considering the deals on BF they could be profitable under 150 already, so in 2 years a 99 could happen).

Still 130M is very possible.

I keep hearing that PS4 is nearing saturation, and yet it still keeps selling at a monstrous pace. Even if we ignore Nintendo/The Wii, PS4 + Xbone are still a good 40 million units short of PS3 + 360, and that's not accounting for population growth. Most of that 40 million will go to the PS4, so I'd say 120 million is the absolute minimum, with 130 more likely and 150 a strong possibility.

Yes PS4 is doing fantastic and 120M seems like lower limit and 150 not impossible. But Switch will do good number plus X1 is not that shabby. It's hard to achieve 50% with this level of competition.

GProgrammer said:
Its going to be hard but possible, remember the OP is talking about the front page, so this is only considering up to the launch of the PS5 and xbox one 2. so probably end 2020.
Reasons
It has a handy lead at the moment
It has been outselling the Switch this year, and this is with Switch having nearly all its big games released
I assume next year will see the release of the biggest franchise of all time, which won't be on the Switch, and only released on the PC months later. GTA6

Seeing from this angle then it's very possible.

curl-6 said:

Also, in addition to lowballing the PS4's lifetime sales, it baffles me how people continue to similarly lowball the Switch. Honestly, any number below 80 million seems rather absurd at this point. It's selling on par with the PS4 and is one of the fastest selling systems ever, it would be basically unheard of for such a system to fall short of 80 million lifetime. It's going to be more than half of that before it's even 3 years old.

You know you can't have both =p if Switch keep selling at PS4 rate then PS4 can't have 50% marketshare



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:

curl-6 said:

Also, in addition to lowballing the PS4's lifetime sales, it baffles me how people continue to similarly lowball the Switch. Honestly, any number below 80 million seems rather absurd at this point. It's selling on par with the PS4 and is one of the fastest selling systems ever, it would be basically unheard of for such a system to fall short of 80 million lifetime. It's going to be more than half of that before it's even 3 years old.

You know you can't have both =p if Switch keep selling at PS4 rate then PS4 can't have 50% marketshare

I'm not "having both", I think PS4 will end up with less than 50% marketshare. I just think people are lowballing both PS4 and Switch lifetime numbers. Slightly over 100 million for Switch and slightly over 140 million for PS4 would be my estimates if I had to guess.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

ironmanDX said:
Nope. Switch is gen 9 though.

Generally though it i not. And I personally I think people estimate the release of the PS/Xbox successors way too early.