Call me crazy but unlike many here I think it has a decent chance to stay above 50% or at least very close. Sony consoles usually have way better legs than Xbox & Nintendo. I'm not really sure how far Switch will go but it already got a majority of its big exclusives, what comes after will be sequels and some new ip here and there that won't move many new buyers (then again they might have another hit like splatoon or pokemon). We will see I guess

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles

According to Wikipedia, both Wii U and Switch are 8th generation consoles. So either someone in this thread that thinks Switch is 9th gen better go in there and fix it, or y'all better accept that they're both 8th gen and that therefore PS4 has to beat both of them and Xbox combined to truly have 50% marketshare. Alternatively, VGChartz also considers both Wii U and Switch to be 8th gen but seems to be comparing Switch, PS4, and XBOne both on the front page and in articles as though that's the 8th gen comparison to make, so do that if you feel like it. Either way, XBOne and Switch should outdo PS4, but if it's close, Wii U's extra 14 million will push PS4 under 50% in my mind.

But do they really?

Where was the PS1 when the PS2 was released and how many did it go onto sell after.

The PS2 to 3 was weird in that the PS3 stumbled out the gate and the PS2 was a casual (and third world) power house. 

The PS3 has only managed like what? 5 to 10M sales since the PS4 released? 

Just under 20 million after the ps2 release

Nintendo would have to be the biggest morons on the face of planet Earth to replace the Switch in 2020. That's mid-90s Sega levels of stupidity right there. It is selling on par with the PS4, and the people buying it clearly don't care about graphical parity or AAA third party games. There is no reason at all to replace the Switch before 2022 at the earliest.

Yeah it sold around that after ps4 released. But there are things to consider, like people being already tired and hungry for a new gen as ps3 was out 7 years unlike previous gens. It also never had the kind of domination ps4 has had until now. Then you have other things like price, I remember ps3 was always kinda expensive, I guess because of the way it was built. Oh and Sony seems to be pushing a lot more in China/asian countries and south america (here ps3 was expensive until they stopped selling).

idk it's just a hunch anyways, they still have a big stuff coming and there' the possibility of a new grand theft auto before the gen is over. In any case, I just said they had better legs than Xbox and Nintendo from what I remember, not that every console sells 30+ millions after a succesor is out

What????

well I guess they have legs then...

Switch is obviously included here because if it was the Wii U we already have the answer. No need to predict or discuss anything

I was simply going by VGChartz numbers. On the front page, it lists the marketshare split as between PS4, Xbone, and Switch.

A better question would be: when the ps4 go below 50% market share?
id say 2020.