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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the PS4 be able to stay above 50% market share?

 

Do you think it'll be over 50% when all's said and done?

Yes 35 44.87%
 
No 43 55.13%
 
Total:78

Should be something around 40/40/20 % market share for PS4/Switch/XB1. So, no.



 

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As long as there are three strong brands, no PlayStation system will ever get majority market share. The NES utterly dominated the Master System, the SNES only had the Genesis as real competition, Sega's failures meant it was basically between Sony & Nintendo in Gen 5, and between Nintendo's mistakes and Xbox trying to establish itself as a new brand the PS2 ended up with a runaway victory. But the way the market is now, unless MS or Nintendo drop out or end up with some colossal brand-wrecking failure, we ought not see any PlayStation system with a majority market share.



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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

Lol of course not. Any way we look at it. If we count the NS as 8th gen then it will keep eating away at that market share. Count it as 9th and then it already has a 100% market share that the PS5 and XB2 will have erode.

But while we are on this lets et something straight and I dont want to have to make a thread for this.

Is the NS 8th gen or 9th gen????

Last edited by Intrinsic - on 18 December 2018

curl-6 said:
Lafiel said:
Unlikely, as I'd say Switch will reach at minimum 80m sold and I can see X1 topping 55m. With the WiiU figured in that would mean ~150m for PS4 to maintain 50% and even if we take that out 135m+ seem a bit too steep a mountain to climb.

shikamaru317 said:

No way PS4 sells more than maybe 115m lifetime if PS5 is indeed releasing in 2020.                              

I must confess, it kinda baffles me when so many act as though PS4 will struggle to go reach, say, 115 or 135 million. The way I see it, it's on course to reach 130 million easily with a pretty solid chance of passing 150.

Come on man...... lets be real here.

Its doing around 17M or 18M this year if I am not mistaken. So ending the year at around 91M. Say it does 15M next year thats 106M. By the time the PS5 is released it will be at 116M to 119M at best and at that point sales will fall off the proverbial cliff. If it gets to 130M it will take it a while to sell those extra 11M+ consoles to get there. Possible but......

Its easy at look at the PS2 sales post PS3 launch and feel the PS4 will do the same.... but the PS2 had a $600 PS3 to thank for that. Oh and Piracy.

Last edited by Intrinsic - on 18 December 2018

Intrinsic said:
curl-6 said:

I must confess, it kinda baffles me when so many act as though PS4 will struggle to go reach, say, 115 or 135 million. The way I see it, it's on course to reach 130 million easily with a pretty solid chance of passing 150.

Come on man...... lets be real here.

Its doing around 17M or 18M this year if I am not mistaken. So ending the year at around 91M. Say it does 15M next year thats 106M. By the time the PS5 is released it will be at 116M to 119M at best and at that point sales will fall off the proverbial cliff. If it gets to 130M it will take it a while to sell those extra 11M consoles to get there. Possible but......

Its easy at look at the PS2 sales post PS3 launch and feel the PS4 will d the same.... but the PS2 has a $600 PS3 t thank for that. Oh and Piracy.

That's the thing, I don't think PS4 will fall off a cliff when PS5 launches. PS5 will likely be $400 or $500 so I think they'll still be plenty of room for a $200 alternative for low income consumers. Sony might also leave PS5 til 2021 to ride PS4's gravy train for as long as they can.

Basically, the system has sold 90 million while still at $300 so I think with a price cut to $200 there's a lot of new consumers for it to reach still.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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Call me crazy but unlike many here I think it has a decent chance to stay above 50% or at least very close. Sony consoles usually have way better legs than Xbox & Nintendo. I'm not really sure how far Switch will go but it already got a majority of its big exclusives, what comes after will be sequels and some new ip here and there that won't move many new buyers (then again they might have another hit like splatoon or pokemon). We will see I guess



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles

According to Wikipedia, both Wii U and Switch are 8th generation consoles. So either someone in this thread that thinks Switch is 9th gen better go in there and fix it, or y'all better accept that they're both 8th gen and that therefore PS4 has to beat both of them and Xbox combined to truly have 50% marketshare. Alternatively, VGChartz also considers both Wii U and Switch to be 8th gen but seems to be comparing Switch, PS4, and XBOne both on the front page and in articles as though that's the 8th gen comparison to make, so do that if you feel like it. Either way, XBOne and Switch should outdo PS4, but if it's close, Wii U's extra 14 million will push PS4 under 50% in my mind.



Azhraell said:
Call me crazy but unlike many here I think it has a decent chance to stay above 50% or at least very close. Sony consoles usually have way better legs than Xbox & Nintendo. I'm not really sure how far Switch will go but it already got a majority of its big exclusives, what comes after will be sequels and some new ip here and there that won't move many new buyers (then again they might have another hit like splatoon or pokemon). We will see I guess

But do they really?

Where was the PS1 when the PS2 was released and how many did it go onto sell after.

The PS2 to 3 was weird in that the PS3 stumbled out the gate and the PS2 was a casual (and third world) power house. 

The PS3 has only managed like what? 5 to 10M sales since the PS4 released? 



Intrinsic said:
Azhraell said:
Call me crazy but unlike many here I think it has a decent chance to stay above 50% or at least very close. Sony consoles usually have way better legs than Xbox & Nintendo. I'm not really sure how far Switch will go but it already got a majority of its big exclusives, what comes after will be sequels and some new ip here and there that won't move many new buyers (then again they might have another hit like splatoon or pokemon). We will see I guess

But do they really?

Where was the PS1 when the PS2 was released and how many did it go onto sell after.

The PS2 to 3 was weird in that the PS3 stumbled out the gate and the PS2 was a casual (and third world) power house. 

The PS3 has only managed like what? 5 to 10M sales since the PS4 released? 

Just under 20 million after the ps2 release



CosmicSex said:
Doesn't it really depend on the Xbox One. If it only gets to 50 million and the PS4 closes 120 then its a sure bet. 65 million is my limit for the Switch. That means that only 115 for the other two combined. I predict 65 for Switch for several reasons including the likelihood of a successor. By 2020, the Switch is gonna be showing its age hard if it wants to support more third party games which I absolutely believe Nintendo wants to do. Missing out on games like Cyber Punk is not something Nintendo wants to continue. The money to be made is incredible. I have to buy a Switch to play with one of my best friends so I can't wait but I pray to God I don't get it only for them to announce a successor within 15 months. Even if Xbox can squeak out 55 million, I think it will only be enough to bring Sony to 50%

Nintendo would have to be the biggest morons on the face of planet Earth to replace the Switch in 2020. That's mid-90s Sega levels of stupidity right there. It is selling on par with the PS4, and the people buying it clearly don't care about graphical parity or AAA third party games. There is no reason at all to replace the Switch before 2022 at the earliest.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.