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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the PS4 be able to stay above 50% market share?

 

Do you think it'll be over 50% when all's said and done?

Yes 35 44.87%
 
No 43 55.13%
 
Total:78

Okay my bad I should have clarified, I was looking at the marketshare as listed on VGChartz's hardware totals on the front page.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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Not a chance. XB1 will finish the generation above 55m and Switch probably at least 75-80m depending on how long it takes Nintendo to release a "Switch 2", so even if you don't include Wii U as an 8th gen console PS4 will probably still be below 50%. No way PS4 sells more than maybe 130m lifetime if PS5 is indeed releasing in 2020.

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 18 December 2018

Lafiel said:
Unlikely, as I'd say Switch will reach at minimum 80m sold and I can see X1 topping 55m. With the WiiU figured in that would mean ~150m for PS4 to maintain 50% and even if we take that out 135m+ seem a bit too steep a mountain to climb.

shikamaru317 said:

No way PS4 sells more than maybe 115m lifetime if PS5 is indeed releasing in 2020.                              

I must confess, it kinda baffles me when so many act as though PS4 will struggle to go reach, say, 115 or 135 million. The way I see it, it's on course to reach 130 million easily with a pretty solid chance of passing 150.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 18 December 2018

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
Lafiel said:
Unlikely, as I'd say Switch will reach at minimum 80m sold and I can see X1 topping 55m. With the WiiU figured in that would mean ~150m for PS4 to maintain 50% and even if we take that out 135m+ seem a bit too steep a mountain to climb.

shikamaru317 said:

No way PS4 sells more than maybe 115m lifetime if PS5 is indeed releasing in 2020.                              

I must confess, it kinda baffles me when so many fact as though PS4 will struggle to go reach, say, 115 or 135 million. The way I see it, it's on course to reach 130 million easily with a pretty solid chance of passing 150.

I edited to 130m, but I don't see how it can do more than that. It should be at about 91m at the end of the year. Next year it will probably be down a bit, maybe 17m for the year, bringing it's total up to 108m. 2020 should be it's smallest year ever since PS5 is coming Holiday 2020 (PS3 sales in 2013 were down by 33% compared to 2012 as a reference), so PS4 might hit 120m by the end of 2020 if it's lucky. Each subsequent year after that it will be down more and more until it is discontinued. You have to remember, PS2's price dropped as low as $100, PS4 is highly unlikely to drop below $150 because they'd have to sell at a loss to go lower, it might not even go lower than $200, so it won't have the kind of post-generation legs that PS2 had. 



shikamaru317 said:
curl-6 said:

I must confess, it kinda baffles me when so many fact as though PS4 will struggle to go reach, say, 115 or 135 million. The way I see it, it's on course to reach 130 million easily with a pretty solid chance of passing 150.

I edited to 130m, but I don't see how it can do more than that. It should be at about 91m at the end of the year. Next year it will probably be down a bit, maybe 17m for the year, bringing it's total up to 108m. 2020 should be it's smallest year ever since PS5 is coming Holiday 2020 (PS3 sales in 2013 were down by 33% compared to 2012 as a reference), so PS4 might hit 120m by the end of 2020 if it's lucky. Each subsequent year after that it will be down more and more until it is discontinued. You have to remember, PS2's price dropped as low as $100, PS4 is highly unlikely to drop below $150 because they'd have to sell at a loss to go lower, so it won't have the kind of post-generation legs that PS2 had. 

I still think that since it's still $300 a drop to $200 could reach a lot of new, lower income consumers. Since PS5 will likely be a $400-$500 product I could see it having decent legs into next gen as a cheap alternative. I can also see Sony dragging out this gen as long as possible while they're onto a good thing, and perhaps not putting out PS5 til 2021.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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Doesn't it really depend on the Xbox One. If it only gets to 50 million and the PS4 closes 120 then its a sure bet. 65 million is my limit for the Switch. That means that only 115 for the other two combined. I predict 65 for Switch for several reasons including the likelihood of a successor. By 2020, the Switch is gonna be showing its age hard if it wants to support more third party games which I absolutely believe Nintendo wants to do. Missing out on games like Cyber Punk is not something Nintendo wants to continue. The money to be made is incredible. I have to buy a Switch to play with one of my best friends so I can't wait but I pray to God I don't get it only for them to announce a successor within 15 months. Even if Xbox can squeak out 55 million, I think it will only be enough to bring Sony to 50%



curl-6 said:
Lafiel said:
Unlikely, as I'd say Switch will reach at minimum 80m sold and I can see X1 topping 55m. With the WiiU figured in that would mean ~150m for PS4 to maintain 50% and even if we take that out 135m+ seem a bit too steep a mountain to climb.

shikamaru317 said:

No way PS4 sells more than maybe 115m lifetime if PS5 is indeed releasing in 2020.                              

I must confess, it kinda baffles me when so many fact as though PS4 will struggle to go reach, say, 115 or 135 million. The way I see it, it's on course to reach 130 million easily with a pretty solid chance of passing 150.

It's definitely on a course to sell 130m. 150m will be a tougher bet, but it won't end under 130.



                                                                                                                                                           

Lafiel said:
Unlikely, as I'd say Switch will reach at minimum 80m sold and I can see X1 topping 55m. With the WiiU figured in that would mean ~150m for PS4 to maintain 50% and even if we take that out 135m+ seem a bit too steep a mountain to climb.

Min? I see 80 million as the Max number, I don't see any reason why it would out sell the 3ds.



CGI-Quality said:
curl-6 said:

I must confess, it kinda baffles me when so many fact as though PS4 will struggle to go reach, say, 115 or 135 million. The way I see it, it's on course to reach 130 million easily with a pretty solid chance of passing 150.

It's definitely on a course to sell 130m. 150m will be a tougher bet, but it won't end under 130.

Yeah 150 is by no means a guarantee, as it's possible PS5 may come out in 2020 and explode out of the gate, cutting PS4's legs short a bit.

If I had to put a number to it, I'd say 90% chance it passes 130, 50% chance it passes 150.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

I suspect that when Xbox Two and PS5 launch, the charts will show those two vs. Switch for gen 9, until the Switch 2 comes out 1-3 years after that and confounds us all again. That being said, if the Switch is going to permanently stay with Gen 8, then I don't think the ps4 will have 50% market share when the Switch is done selling. I suspect the PS4 will end somewhere around 110-120 million, due to the PS5 launch. At most 130 million to me. Xbox will probably finish 60-70 million, and I think the Switch will probably be another 100 million or so. If I turn out correct, that would be 39-42% market share, which is still amazing. If the Switch is going to count as Gen 9 in the longrun and, therefore, the Wii U is taking Nintendo's Gen 8 place, then yeah no questions asked.