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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 1 December 2018

DonFerrari on 19 December 2018
Replicant said:
DonFerrari said:

And several good consoles have peaked on second or third full year, actually peaking on the 4th or 5th are rare occasions.

Nintendo's home consoles usually peak in their 2nd year while PlayStation home consoles usually peak in their 4th year.

N64 (2nd year peak)
Launch: 1996
Peak: 1998
Lifetime sales: 32.9M

Gamecube (2nd year peak)
Launch: 2001
Peak: 2003
Lifetime sales: 21.7M

Wii (2nd year peak)
Launch: 2006
Peak: 2008
Lifetime sales: 101.6M

Wii U (1st year peak)
Launch: 2012
Peak: 2013
Lifetime sales: 13.9M


PS1 (4th year peak)
Launch: 1994
Peak: 1998
Lifetime sales: 104.3M

PS2 (3rd year peak)
Launch: 2000
Peak: 2003
Lifetime sales: 157.7M

PS3 (5th year peak)
Launch: 2006
Peak: 2011
Lifetime sales: 86.9M

PS4 (4th year peak)
Launch: 2013
Peak: 2017
Lifetime sales: 100M+

Would that mean that Mnementh is calling Nintendo consoles failed consoles??? http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8941342



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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zorg1000 on 19 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
Amnesia said:

No lol...It needs much more. Even with some strong 1,5M for december, plus my super optimiste projection of Q4, it would finish the fiscal year with ~19,5M.

 

 

If Smash doesn't produce a crazy and miraculous 2M next week for the worldwide sales report, I think the 20M will have lost every chances to happen.

This whole FY thing..... its just complicating things. Anyway........

So nintendo announced 20M shipment for the FY2018 - 2019 (Apr 2018- Mar 2019).

That doesnt mean they have to "sell" 20M consoles in in those 12 months. Just mean they have to ship that many.

Whatever the case you can expect there to always be around 1.5M to 2.5M NS consoles in the channels.

So question is.. for Q1 and Q2 how many consoles did they ship? 

You're right that fiscal year sell through will be below shipments but looking at sell through numbers will help to see how close they will be to reach the shipment forcast. For example, if they only sell 15m in the FY than 20m shipments is not happening but if they sell 17-18m in the FY than 20m shipments is within reach.

 

Shipments

Q1-1.88m

Q2-3.19m

Total-5.07m

They will need something like 11m & 4m in the next quarters to reach it which will be very tough to hit.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Keiji on 19 December 2018
SKMBlake said:
Keiji said:

On enfonce des portes ouvertes sans trop savoir de quoi on parle et on repproche aux autres d'être plus réalistes, paradoxal

J'étais sûr que c'était toi. Insérer gif de Pierre Menes levant les yeux au ciel.

Mais attends t'avais pas vendu ta PS4 ?



Intrinsic on 19 December 2018
Panicradio said:
Intrinsic said:

From my most recent BOM assessment

  2013 PS4 TODAYs PS4
HDD $23 $16
BRDrive $25 $20
RAM $62 $28
APU $121 $55
Other $126 $75 - $100
TOTAL $357 $194 - $219

So yh, I guess its safe t assume sony is making alot of money on each unit right now.

It should be noted that at this point even the use of 7nm fabrication won't result in much of a drop. Thats because there are a number f things that just can't really et any lower. So 7nm will only bring about a further $40 or so price reduction (APU, Ram and Other will be the only things that et cheaper) which means the lowest price we may see of the PS4 is around $169 at some pint in the future. 

Thank you for that update on it. 🙂 So, then, approximately, Sony is still [only] making something between 45€ and 95€ profit on each standalone console being sold (not the PRO). But figuring profits from PSN subscriptions and at least from 1 game being sold along, well, yeah, Sony's revenue must be in good shape. 🙂 

h its definately in good shape. And has been in this shape since 2016. Because that was the last time that there was a major revision of the hardware. 

Think of it this way. As with the APU, sony buys by the wafer and pays AMD some sort of contracted royalty fee for every single APU. Whenever there is a die shrink then sony basically gets a little over twice the number of chips (pending on fabrication yields) from the exact same wafer. Hence a cheaper APU. And the same applies with RAM. Pre 2016 sny used 16 4Gb Ram modules to arrive at 8GB of Ram. In the PS4 slim there are only 8 x 8Gb modules to get the same 8GB. Aain about a 50% price reduction on RAM.

So its an obvious deliberate choice on sonys part to not drop the PS4 price. And they make about 30% from every game sold on their platform. More obviously if the game is first party or sold from their store. 



Intrinsic on 19 December 2018
CGI-Quality said:

Technically, the Wii was the PS2 for Nintendo consoles :P. It was Nintendo's anomaly. PlayStation had already dominated in a similar fashion before the PS2 came along.

That said, I don't think the PS4 will clear the PS2 either. People are setting a bar that it probably won't reach, and thus, leaving themselves open for mocking when it doesn't. 130-140m is a better bet, which would still be an astounding result.

I think 130M is the most it can do. Then again I seem t have a habit of lowballing things.... initially a few years back I predicted 105M to 115M as its max.

zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

This whole FY thing..... its just complicating things. Anyway........

So nintendo announced 20M shipment for the FY2018 - 2019 (Apr 2018- Mar 2019).

That doesnt mean they have to "sell" 20M consoles in in those 12 months. Just mean they have to ship that many.

Whatever the case you can expect there to always be around 1.5M to 2.5M NS consoles in the channels.

So question is.. for Q1 and Q2 how many consoles did they ship? 

You're right that fiscal year sell through will be below shipments but looking at sell through numbers will help to see how close they will be to reach the shipment forcast. For example, if they only sell 15m in the FY than 20m shipments is not happening but if they sell 17-18m in the FY than 20m shipments is within reach.

 

Shipments

Q1-1.88m

Q2-3.19m

Total-5.07m

They will need something like 11m & 4m in the next quarters to reach it which will be very tough to hit.

Yh I know how well it actually sells is a good indication of it hitting its shipment goals. Thats why i asked for 1st and 2nd quarter shipments.

And from those numbers you just gave...... I am now of the impression they won't hit that shipment target. I mean if we put abut 1.5M in the channels from their previous quarter then add that to the sales over the last two quarters its not looking great. 

But as I mentioned in another thread, nintendo could still insist in shipping those 20M console and just ship less the following year. And still end up selling more consoles in all of 2019 than they did in 2018 even after shipping less for the 2019-2020 FY. Pretty much exactly what happened with sony in 2017.



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Keiji on 19 December 2018

We said 131.5 million with Math. I told you guys.



Replicant on 19 December 2018
CGI-Quality said:

That said, I don't think the PS4 will clear the PS2 either.

Me neither. With a PS5 launch in early 2020, my prediction from last year puts the PS4 at 120 mill lifetime.

Switch:
USA: 30 M
Europe: 25 M
Japan: 25 M
Other: 10 M
Total: 90 M

PS4:
USA: 40 M
Europe: 45 M
Japan: 10 M
Other: 25 M
Total: 120 M

XB1:
USA: 33 M
Europe: 17 M
Japan: 0 M
Other: 10 M
Total: 60 M

 

DonFerrari said:
Replicant said:

Nintendo's home consoles usually peak in their 2nd year while PlayStation home consoles usually peak in their 4th year.

N64 (2nd year peak)
Launch: 1996
Peak: 1998
Lifetime sales: 32.9M

Gamecube (2nd year peak)
Launch: 2001
Peak: 2003
Lifetime sales: 21.7M

Wii (2nd year peak)
Launch: 2006
Peak: 2008
Lifetime sales: 101.6M

Wii U (1st year peak)
Launch: 2012
Peak: 2013
Lifetime sales: 13.9M


PS1 (4th year peak)
Launch: 1994
Peak: 1998
Lifetime sales: 104.3M

PS2 (3rd year peak)
Launch: 2000
Peak: 2003
Lifetime sales: 157.7M

PS3 (5th year peak)
Launch: 2006
Peak: 2011
Lifetime sales: 86.9M

PS4 (4th year peak)
Launch: 2013
Peak: 2017
Lifetime sales: 100M+

Would that mean that Mnementh is calling Nintendo consoles failed consoles??? http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8941342

Hmm, it could seem so. I don't know the context though



DonFerrari on 19 December 2018
Replicant said:
CGI-Quality said:

That said, I don't think the PS4 will clear the PS2 either.

Me neither. With a PS5 launch in early 2020, my prediction from last year puts the PS4 at 120 mill lifetime.

Switch:
USA: 30 M
Europe: 25 M
Japan: 25 M
Other: 10 M
Total: 90 M

PS4:
USA: 40 M
Europe: 45 M
Japan: 10 M
Other: 25 M
Total: 120 M

XB1:
USA: 33 M
Europe: 17 M
Japan: 0 M
Other: 10 M
Total: 60 M

 

DonFerrari said:

Would that mean that Mnementh is calling Nintendo consoles failed consoles??? http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8941342

Hmm, it could seem so. I don't know the context though

Basically defending Switch will peak on 2020 because only failures peak early.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

TheBlackNaruto on 19 December 2018
xMetroid said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

So you are in agreement that the PS4 will still be solid next year lol. Doing over 16m in the 6th year on the market would be VERY good. But I am thinking 14-16m for the year. But a $199 pricedrop plus some nice 2019 titles. Yeah I am thinking the PS4 will have a solid 6th year. Easily passing the 100 million mark imo.

Actually the 5 year argument IS NOT stupid by any means. Especially when pushing 90mil sold. It makes it just that much more impressive that it is still going so strongly. And actually you DO sell less going over the years lol. One of those years just happens to be a peak year. You can't keep selling more and more forever. Eventually you reach saturation and run out of customers. So no the 5yr argument is not stupid at all. Especially after staying the same price for so long.

I think his comment was un-called for but let's not pretend the 5yr argument is not valid. And that takes NOTHING away from the Switch which is also doing amazing. And will do even better next year!!! And as I stated to someone else. Being in its strongest month, still being the hottest/newest console on the market, coming off two of the biggest games in Nintendo history it SHOULD be destroying all everything else imo. I am again expecting BIG things for the Switch for Nov like well over 2million in the US alone!

Well it depends on which circumstances. My point is the PS4 peaked at it's 4th year and last year people were using the same ass arguement. "OMG Ps4 is 4 year and outselling the Switch that's embarrassing" while Switch was outselling PS4's first year, where consoles are lacking games/bundles and are full priced. The thing is, console don't peak during their first year and go on to gradually sell less every year. Switch isn't peaking and PS4 peaked last year. PS4 is UP yoy this week but down from a several margin for the whole year, that's an isolate case and the numbers might just be overestimated... 

Yes Switch will probably be up Yoy next year, and it is up 130k this week and was up really significantly during BF so yes the Pokémon effect is on. Although, Let's go is far from doing new games numbers, this is more of a reboot/remake. Smash is also not even out yet so it will destroy the other consoles once it's the actual numbers related to it. 

The point is, Switch might outsell these PS4 numbers when it will hit it's fifth year, we never know. That's why the "Switch is new AND Ps4 is 5 year old" argument is off, cause again, Switch could be far from peaking and PS4 is down a little from a peaking year, so it's just irrelevant when comparing to new consoles. Sure it's amazing that it is still selling well after 5 years, but doesn't mean new consoles should outsell it while it's being cheaper, has more games and has been making it's name for several years while a new system needs to make it's way still.

Trust me I understand what you are saying COMPLETELY. And IMO I think the Switch is doing AMAZING and again will get even better next year. And yeah I am not one of those people that say that the Switch should always be number one. Those people saying all that stuff about this is embarrassing for the Switch etc were silly if you ask me. But no sillier than the other side saying the Switch would destroy everything this year and how it would be a bloodbath etc.  And no of course the Switch is not peaking this year it has way more in it! And yes when the Smash weeks release I expect it to destroy EVERYTHING for sure. Especially the PS4 which has absolutely NO deals this month which is mind boggling to me but hey more revenue matters to them I guess.

And yes the Switch might outsell these PS4 numbers when it hits its fifth year. We don't know but for the numbers we have NOW we can say that for the PS4 in the fifth year on the market it is doing extremely well. Especially at the pace that it has been selling at. And it puts it even more into perspective when looking at it compared to the Switch right now. Which again takes NOTHING from the Switch but does show how strong the PS4 still is especially to still be $299. Which is not cheaper than the Switch but the same price. But you are correct the PS4 does have more games and has made a STRONG name for itself.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

zorg1000 on 19 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
CGI-Quality said:

Technically, the Wii was the PS2 for Nintendo consoles :P. It was Nintendo's anomaly. PlayStation had already dominated in a similar fashion before the PS2 came along.

That said, I don't think the PS4 will clear the PS2 either. People are setting a bar that it probably won't reach, and thus, leaving themselves open for mocking when it doesn't. 130-140m is a better bet, which would still be an astounding result.

I think 130M is the most it can do. Then again I seem t have a habit of lowballing things.... initially a few years back I predicted 105M to 115M as its max.

zorg1000 said:

You're right that fiscal year sell through will be below shipments but looking at sell through numbers will help to see how close they will be to reach the shipment forcast. For example, if they only sell 15m in the FY than 20m shipments is not happening but if they sell 17-18m in the FY than 20m shipments is within reach.

 

Shipments

Q1-1.88m

Q2-3.19m

Total-5.07m

They will need something like 11m & 4m in the next quarters to reach it which will be very tough to hit.

Yh I know how well it actually sells is a good indication of it hitting its shipment goals. Thats why i asked for 1st and 2nd quarter shipments.

And from those numbers you just gave...... I am now of the impression they won't hit that shipment target. I mean if we put abut 1.5M in the channels from their previous quarter then add that to the sales over the last two quarters its not looking great. 

But as I mentioned in another thread, nintendo could still insist in shipping those 20M console and just ship less the following year. And still end up selling more consoles in all of 2019 than they did in 2018 even after shipping less for the 2019-2020 FY. Pretty much exactly what happened with sony in 2017.

Well they wouldnt increase the amount in the channels by 1.5m during quarters 1 & 2, it was ~1.7m at the end of 2017 so there would be no need to increase that to 3.2m in the spring/summer, they probably only increased it by 300-500k at most.

 

Switch needs to do another 14.93m and here are the peak Q3+Q4 for a few comparable systems.

3DS-10.45m

PS4-12.60m

Wii-15.87m

So I agree that it will probably miss by a couple million.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.