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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 1 December 2018

DonFerrari on 19 December 2018
zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

I think 130M is the most it can do. Then again I seem t have a habit of lowballing things.... initially a few years back I predicted 105M to 115M as its max.

Yh I know how well it actually sells is a good indication of it hitting its shipment goals. Thats why i asked for 1st and 2nd quarter shipments.

And from those numbers you just gave...... I am now of the impression they won't hit that shipment target. I mean if we put abut 1.5M in the channels from their previous quarter then add that to the sales over the last two quarters its not looking great. 

But as I mentioned in another thread, nintendo could still insist in shipping those 20M console and just ship less the following year. And still end up selling more consoles in all of 2019 than they did in 2018 even after shipping less for the 2019-2020 FY. Pretty much exactly what happened with sony in 2017.

Well they wouldnt increase the amount in the channels by 1.5m during quarters 1 & 2, it was ~1.7m at the end of 2017 so there would be no need to increase that to 3.2m in the spring/summer, they probably only increased it by 300-500k at most.

 

Switch needs to do another 14.93m and here are the peak Q3+Q4 for a few comparable systems.

3DS-10.45m

PS4-12.60m

Wii-15.87m

So I agree that it will probably miss by a couple million.

Yep, people saying Switch doesn't need to sell 20M to ship 20M, forgets that there were already Switch on channels on healthy amount at the start of this FY. So if they sell 17M (not saying it will, but is a reasonable number) shipping 20M would be very hard and also would damage their next year shipment projection unless of course they could sell 25M and thus ship 22M to "zero" the balance.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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omarct on 19 December 2018
Replicant said:
CGI-Quality said:

That said, I don't think the PS4 will clear the PS2 either.

Me neither. With a PS5 launch in early 2020, my prediction from last year puts the PS4 at 120 mill lifetime.

Switch:
USA: 30 M
Europe: 25 M
Japan: 25 M
Other: 10 M
Total: 90 M

PS4:
USA: 40 M
Europe: 45 M
Japan: 10 M
Other: 25 M
Total: 120 M

XB1:
USA: 33 M
Europe: 17 M
Japan: 0 M
Other: 10 M
Total: 60 M

If we follow the flow that has been going so far, by march 2020 which is the end of the 2019 year for Nintendo the Switch would have sold around 50 million consoles, by march 2021 something like 65 million, by march 2022 something like 80 million, so as long as the switch its still being supported by march 2023 then I can see them doing 90+ million. The thing is next Gen is releasing on 2020 so IDK how that will affect Switch sales and how long will Nintendo be able to hold out with the switch and whether they will decide to release a Switch pro or a Switch 2.

Ps4 by march 2020 should be around 110 million, by 2021 120, 2022 125, by 2023 130. This is much harder as the impact from the ps5 will crush the Ps4 sales after the first couple of years, specially if they make ps5 backwards compatible.



Kerotan on 19 December 2018
DonFerrari said:
Replicant said:

Nintendo's home consoles usually peak in their 2nd year while PlayStation home consoles usually peak in their 4th year.

N64 (2nd year peak)
Launch: 1996
Peak: 1998
Lifetime sales: 32.9M

Gamecube (2nd year peak)
Launch: 2001
Peak: 2003
Lifetime sales: 21.7M

Wii (2nd year peak)
Launch: 2006
Peak: 2008
Lifetime sales: 101.6M

Wii U (1st year peak)
Launch: 2012
Peak: 2013
Lifetime sales: 13.9M


PS1 (4th year peak)
Launch: 1994
Peak: 1998
Lifetime sales: 104.3M

PS2 (3rd year peak)
Launch: 2000
Peak: 2003
Lifetime sales: 157.7M

PS3 (5th year peak)
Launch: 2006
Peak: 2011
Lifetime sales: 86.9M

PS4 (4th year peak)
Launch: 2013
Peak: 2017
Lifetime sales: 100M+

Would that mean that Mnementh is calling Nintendo consoles failed consoles??? http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8941342

Wow!!! Nice catch :) 



Replicant on 19 December 2018
omarct said:
Replicant said:

Me neither. With a PS5 launch in early 2020, my prediction from last year puts the PS4 at 120 mill lifetime.

Switch:
USA: 30 M
Europe: 25 M
Japan: 25 M
Other: 10 M
Total: 90 M

PS4:
USA: 40 M
Europe: 45 M
Japan: 10 M
Other: 25 M
Total: 120 M

XB1:
USA: 33 M
Europe: 17 M
Japan: 0 M
Other: 10 M
Total: 60 M

If we follow the flow that has been going so far, by march 2020 which is the end of the 2019 year for Nintendo the Switch would have sold around 50 million consoles, by march 2021 something like 65 million, by march 2022 something like 80 million, so as long as the switch its still being supported by march 2023 then I can see them doing 90+ million. The thing is next Gen is releasing on 2020 so IDK how that will affect Switch sales and how long will Nintendo be able to hold out with the switch and whether they will decide to release a Switch pro or a Switch 2.

Ps4 by march 2020 should be around 110 million, by 2021 120, 2022 125, by 2023 130. This is much harder as the impact from the ps5 will crush the Ps4 sales after the first couple of years, specially if they make ps5 backwards compatible.

I agree.

Much depends on whether Nintendo makes a Switch "Pro" and whether that is counted together with the original console like the Game Boy Color was.

Regarding PS4 sales, much depends on whether PS5 is launching early or late 2020 and on how much it'll cannibalize PS4.



Errorist76 on 19 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

We'll have to see if Dreams and Days Gone are really the only games that will come out next year or if Death Stranding/Ghost of Tsushima/The Last of Us 2 come out (not all of those, but maybe one or two of them)

And this is anther thing. I think none f those games are coming next year. Only ones I think we get are Dreams and Days Gone. And of course Kingdom hearts 3 which might as well be called an exclusive. 

TLoU2, GoT an DS I think will all come in 2020 as cross platform releases. 

ConsiderIng DS is done and in polishing phase already, it’s very likely it’ll release next year. There is no chance in hell Sony will wait until PS5 to release TLOU2 either. 



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Biggerboat1 on 19 December 2018
Nate4Drake said:
DonFerrari said:
I think it is possible that this week Switch was over PS4... but if the positions are right then I don't see Switch having enough time to pass PS4 this year on an over 3M gap (or have adjustments reduced it?)

Everything is possible, like PS4 was over Switch by a bigger margin as well; but it doesn't matter, both are selling well and are profitable.

 For the year 2018, Switch has zero chances on earth to pass PS4, it will never.  2019 ? it doesn't matter anymore, as Switch does not even belong to the same Generation of PS4 and X1, 

 it's a new console, and Sony/MS will be preparing for the Next Gen.   

 

Apart from yourself, and maybe a few others, I don't really see anybody else caring about 'generations'. It is a term that is handy to reference an approximate era in gaming but the definition falls apart when applied to the current landscape. If PS5 & XB2 launch midway through Switch's life then what - who decides which gen it'll fall into - you? And if the PS4 continues to sell for another 3-4 years then it's overlap with Switch could well be larger than PS5... When all manufacturers launch their consoles at roughly the same time, with roughly the same frequency then the term works, when they don't, it falls apart - which is where we are now...

I know you are keen to keep the term alive so that you can gush over PS4's victory but it is problematic to say the least... 



Intrinsic on 19 December 2018
zorg1000 said:

Well they wouldnt increase the amount in the channels by 1.5m during quarters 1 & 2, it was ~1.7m at the end of 2017 so there would be no need to increase that to 3.2m in the spring/summer, they probably only increased it by 300-500k at most.

 

Switch needs to do another 14.93m and here are the peak Q3+Q4 for a few comparable systems.

3DS-10.45m

PS4-12.60m

Wii-15.87m

So I agree that it will probably miss by a couple million.

Yh... about the channels though, thats not what I meant.

Ok, so say at the start of the FY they already had 1.7M in the channels. And they still ship out 20Mfor the FY. That means by the end of FY 2018 they would have 21.7M NS in circulation. Now if they manage to sell 18M for the 2018FY that will mean that at the start of the 2019 FY they would have a surplus of around 3.7M (don`t even think they or retailers would want that but hey..). To correct this all they have to do is ship 18M in the 2019 FY and aim t sell around 20M consoles.

I may be missing something with my estimates though but I fully get what you mean by not wanting (or maybe not even being able to) add more units to the channels so it would be better that they ship less than the 20M and keep whats in the channels at around 2.5M max.

Errorist76 said:
Intrinsic said:

And this is anther thing. I think none f those games are coming next year. Only ones I think we get are Dreams and Days Gone. And of course Kingdom hearts 3 which might as well be called an exclusive. 

TLoU2, GoT an DS I think will all come in 2020 as cross platform releases. 

ConsiderIng DS is done and in polishing phase already, it’s very likely it’ll release next year. There is no chance in hell Sony will wait until PS5 to release TLOU2 either. 

Waiting till PS5 at this point is just waiting for about 22 months. And holding those two games off doesn't mean they won't release them for the PS4 too. It would be a cross platform release type thing. 

At this point They don't really need those games to sell more consoles. A price drop would do more for sales than the availability of any game at this point. So those games will be sold primarily to the existing user base. Holding them off to the PS5 launch year also will give sony the best launch lineup a PS platform has ever had and accelerate adoption of the new hardware.

Drop the price to $199 around June 2019. Announce PS5 in december. Release PS5 in March 2020 with TLoU and then DS in september 2020. Make those games cross platform with an obvious difference n the new hardware compared to the old. Profit.

Thats what I would do if I were them at this point. It sure as hell worked fr nintendo with Zelda.



DonFerrari on 19 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

Well they wouldnt increase the amount in the channels by 1.5m during quarters 1 & 2, it was ~1.7m at the end of 2017 so there would be no need to increase that to 3.2m in the spring/summer, they probably only increased it by 300-500k at most.

 

Switch needs to do another 14.93m and here are the peak Q3+Q4 for a few comparable systems.

3DS-10.45m

PS4-12.60m

Wii-15.87m

So I agree that it will probably miss by a couple million.

Yh... about the channels though, thats not what I meant.

Ok, so say at the start of the FY they already had 1.7M in the channels. And they still ship out 20Mfor the FY. That means by the end of FY 2018 they would have 21.7M NS in circulation. Now if they manage to sell 18M for the 2018FY that will mean that at the start of the 2019 FY they would have a surplus of around 3.7M (don`t even think they or retailers would want that but hey..). To correct this all they have to do is ship 18M in the 2019 FY and aim t sell around 20M consoles.

I may be missing something with my estimates though but I fully get what you mean by not wanting (or maybe not even being able to) add more units to the channels so it would be better that they ship less than the 20M and keep whats in the channels at around 2.5M max.

Errorist76 said:

ConsiderIng DS is done and in polishing phase already, it’s very likely it’ll release next year. There is no chance in hell Sony will wait until PS5 to release TLOU2 either. 

Waiting till PS5 at this point is just waiting for about 22 months. And holding those two games off doesn't mean they won't release them for the PS4 too. It would be a cross platform release type thing. 

At this point They don't really need those games to sell more consoles. A price drop would do more for sales than the availability of any game at this point. So those games will be sold primarily to the existing user base. Holding them off to the PS5 launch year also will give sony the best launch lineup a PS platform has ever had and accelerate adoption of the new hardware.

Drop the price to $199 around June 2019. Announce PS5 in december. Release PS5 in March 2020 with TLoU and then DS in september 2020. Make those games cross platform with an obvious difference n the new hardware compared to the old. Profit.

Thats what I would do if I were them at this point. It sure as hell worked fr nintendo with Zelda.

TO hold off a game you put hundred millions to make for 2 years is a lot of lost money and doesn't make sense.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

zorg1000 on 19 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

Well they wouldnt increase the amount in the channels by 1.5m during quarters 1 & 2, it was ~1.7m at the end of 2017 so there would be no need to increase that to 3.2m in the spring/summer, they probably only increased it by 300-500k at most.

 

Switch needs to do another 14.93m and here are the peak Q3+Q4 for a few comparable systems.

3DS-10.45m

PS4-12.60m

Wii-15.87m

So I agree that it will probably miss by a couple million.

Yh... about the channels though, thats not what I meant.

Ok, so say at the start of the FY they already had 1.7M in the channels. And they still ship out 20Mfor the FY. That means by the end of FY 2018 they would have 21.7M NS in circulation. Now if they manage to sell 18M for the 2018FY that will mean that at the start of the 2019 FY they would have a surplus of around 3.7M (don`t even think they or retailers would want that but hey..). To correct this all they have to do is ship 18M in the 2019 FY and aim t sell around 20M consoles.

I may be missing something with my estimates though but I fully get what you mean by not wanting (or maybe not even being able to) add more units to the channels so it would be better that they ship less than the 20M and keep whats in the channels at around 2.5M max.

Errorist76 said:

ConsiderIng DS is done and in polishing phase already, it’s very likely it’ll release next year. There is no chance in hell Sony will wait until PS5 to release TLOU2 either. 

Waiting till PS5 at this point is just waiting for about 22 months. And holding those two games off doesn't mean they won't release them for the PS4 too. It would be a cross platform release type thing. 

At this point They don't really need those games to sell more consoles. A price drop would do more for sales than the availability of any game at this point. So those games will be sold primarily to the existing user base. Holding them off to the PS5 launch year also will give sony the best launch lineup a PS platform has ever had and accelerate adoption of the new hardware.

Drop the price to $199 around June 2019. Announce PS5 in december. Release PS5 in March 2020 with TLoU and then DS in september 2020. Make those games cross platform with an obvious difference n the new hardware compared to the old. Profit.

Thats what I would do if I were them at this point. It sure as hell worked fr nintendo with Zelda.

Ok I see what you're saying now. At the end of 2016 PS4 had a 3.7 million shipped vs sold difference so it wouldnt be unheard of for that to happen but that's definitely on the higher side of what retailers would want.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

chakkra on 19 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
CGI-Quality said:

Technically, the Wii was the PS2 for Nintendo consoles :P. It was Nintendo's anomaly. PlayStation had already dominated in a similar fashion before the PS2 came along.

That said, I don't think the PS4 will clear the PS2 either. People are setting a bar that it probably won't reach, and thus, leaving themselves open for mocking when it doesn't. 130-140m is a better bet, which would still be an astounding result.

I think 130M is the most it can do. Then again I seem t have a habit of lowballing things.... initially a few years back I predicted 105M to 115M as its max.

lol, I think the whole site have witnessed that in the last couple of days.  But don't worry, doesn't look like lowballing the PS4 causes such a strong reaction as lowballing other things around here.