Global Hardware 1 December 2018

[DonFerrari]

zorg1000 said:

Intrinsic said:

I think 130M is the most it can do. Then again I seem t have a habit of lowballing things.... initially a few years back I predicted 105M to 115M as its max.

Yh I know how well it actually sells is a good indication of it hitting its shipment goals. Thats why i asked for 1st and 2nd quarter shipments.

And from those numbers you just gave...... I am now of the impression they won't hit that shipment target. I mean if we put abut 1.5M in the channels from their previous quarter then add that to the sales over the last two quarters its not looking great. 

But as I mentioned in another thread, nintendo could still insist in shipping those 20M console and just ship less the following year. And still end up selling more consoles in all of 2019 than they did in 2018 even after shipping less for the 2019-2020 FY. Pretty much exactly what happened with sony in 2017.

Well they wouldnt increase the amount in the channels by 1.5m during quarters 1 & 2, it was ~1.7m at the end of 2017 so there would be no need to increase that to 3.2m in the spring/summer, they probably only increased it by 300-500k at most.

 

Switch needs to do another 14.93m and here are the peak Q3+Q4 for a few comparable systems.

3DS-10.45m

PS4-12.60m

Wii-15.87m

So I agree that it will probably miss by a couple million.

Yep, people saying Switch doesn't need to sell 20M to ship 20M, forgets that there were already Switch on channels on healthy amount at the start of this FY. So if they sell 17M (not saying it will, but is a reasonable number) shipping 20M would be very hard and also would damage their next year shipment projection unless of course they could sell 25M and thus ship 22M to "zero" the balance.