By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 1 December 2018

Bofferbrauer2 said:
CGI-Quality said:

15-17m is a good enough guess, especially considering the possibility of a slimmer PS4, The Last Of Us: Part II's release, and some form of price drop.

I doubt it though.

The baseline has dropped considerably compared to last year, and it's only due to the flurry of great games throughout the year that it sold so well, as each one of them boosted sales enough to get close to last year's sales. But next year the baseline is certainly even lower, and the outlook in terms of great games looks much weaker to me than it did this year. While I'm sure PS4 will come with a pricedrop (50$, I don't expect Sony to permanently cut 100$ just yet) and maybe a superslim (that one really depends on sufficient 7nm yiels and capacities), I don't think that will be enough to keep the sales going that well. It will still do well, but I don't think it can still do 15M+, more like 13-15M

We'll have to see if Dreams and Days Gone are really the only games that will come out next year or if Death Stranding/Ghost of Tsushima/The Last of Us 2 come out (not all of those, but maybe one or two of them)



Around the Network

Switch now at about 9m sales for the fiscal year. Gonna need 9-10m more in 4 months for Nintendo's shipment goal. Still possible but cutting it uber close, Switch absolutely needs to sell 1m per week in December



Bofferbrauer2 said:
CGI-Quality said:

15-17m is a good enough guess, especially considering the possibility of a slimmer PS4, The Last Of Us: Part II's release, and some form of price drop.

I doubt it though.

The baseline has dropped considerably compared to last year, and it's only due to the flurry of great games throughout the year that it sold so well, as each one of them boosted sales enough to get close to last year's sales. But next year the baseline is certainly even lower, and the outlook in terms of great games looks much weaker to me than it did this year. While I'm sure PS4 will come with a pricedrop (50$, I don't expect Sony to permanently cut 100$ just yet) and maybe a superslim (that one really depends on sufficient 7nm yiels and capacities), I don't think that will be enough to keep the sales going that well. It will still do well, but I don't think it can still do 15M+, more like 13-15M

Like you took the words right out of my head.

Exactly where I think it will be at. 13M-15M. And for the same reasons. Sony being hesitant to drop the price by more than $50 which will only slow the decline a little and I don't think sony would feel there is much to gain from a superslim when the PS5 may be coming as early as March 2020 ad/or the cost of early 2019 7nm chips wouldn't justify making a superslim in 2019. 

I mean there has to be a reason why sony only does this $199 PS4 thing for one month in the year... it probably means the PS4 still currently cost them a little over $199 to make (maybe $230). 

CGI-Quality said:

I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. Still a few cards that can be played and I won't bet against a machine that continues to defy. Not a guarantee, but not out of the question either.

I agree with him.... and while I agree with you too, that PS4 magic dust has to run out at some point. And the only obvious card I see them playing is a price drop but as it stands even if their YOY sales drop by anther 13-15% next year they would still only need like 9M sales t break 100M. And that will happen before Nov-dec next year.

But yh..... if there is one takeaway from this gen s far its been not t underestimate the PS4. They could just announce a permanent price drop to $199 as their sorry we missed E3 apology next year. And boom... another 16-17M year.



AngryLittleAlchemist said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I doubt it though.

The baseline has dropped considerably compared to last year, and it's only due to the flurry of great games throughout the year that it sold so well, as each one of them boosted sales enough to get close to last year's sales. But next year the baseline is certainly even lower, and the outlook in terms of great games looks much weaker to me than it did this year. While I'm sure PS4 will come with a pricedrop (50$, I don't expect Sony to permanently cut 100$ just yet) and maybe a superslim (that one really depends on sufficient 7nm yiels and capacities), I don't think that will be enough to keep the sales going that well. It will still do well, but I don't think it can still do 15M+, more like 13-15M

We'll have to see if Dreams and Days Gone are really the only games that will come out next year or if Death Stranding/Ghost of Tsushima/The Last of Us 2 come out (not all of those, but maybe one or two of them)

And this is anther thing. I think none f those games are coming next year. Only ones I think we get are Dreams and Days Gone. And of course Kingdom hearts 3 which might as well be called an exclusive. 

TLoU2, GoT an DS I think will all come in 2020 as cross platform releases. 



AngryLittleAlchemist said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I doubt it though.

The baseline has dropped considerably compared to last year, and it's only due to the flurry of great games throughout the year that it sold so well, as each one of them boosted sales enough to get close to last year's sales. But next year the baseline is certainly even lower, and the outlook in terms of great games looks much weaker to me than it did this year. While I'm sure PS4 will come with a pricedrop (50$, I don't expect Sony to permanently cut 100$ just yet) and maybe a superslim (that one really depends on sufficient 7nm yiels and capacities), I don't think that will be enough to keep the sales going that well. It will still do well, but I don't think it can still do 15M+, more like 13-15M

We'll have to see if Dreams and Days Gone are really the only games that will come out next year or if Death Stranding/Ghost of Tsushima/The Last of Us 2 come out (not all of those, but maybe one or two of them)

It wasn't just the first party titles who pushed so much, but also unusually high amount of high quality 3rd party titles, like MHW for instance



Around the Network
Intrinsic said: 
CGI-Quality said:

I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. Still a few cards that can be played and I won't bet against a machine that continues to defy. Not a guarantee, but not out of the question either.

I agree with him.... and while I agree with you too, that PS4 magic dust has to run out at some point. And the only obvious card I see them playing is a price drop but as it stands even if their YOY sales drop by anther 13-15% next year they would still only need like 9M sales t break 100M. And that will happen before Nov-dec next year.

But yh..... if there is one takeaway from this gen s far its been not t underestimate the PS4. They could just announce a permanent price drop to $199 as their sorry we missed E3 apology next year. And boom... another 16-17M year.

That's just it, there is no magic dust. Just a well rounded, well marketed, device. 2019's inevitable decline can be softened with the variables I mentioned.



                                                                                                                                                           

Intrinsic said:

I mean there has to be a reason why sony only does this $199 PS4 thing for one month in the year... it probably means the PS4 still currently cost them a little over $199 to make (maybe $230). 

Reportedly, in 2013 Sony had a $45 profit on each console sold when the PS4 was $399, yet alone comparing to manufacturing costs. That should be some reliable data to be able to find Sony's profit today. 

Source: https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1320199&image_number=1

I am from Germany, I don't think we've had any price tag just in the near of €199 since 2013. At least to me, Sony is still selling the PS4 at a above average price tag here, between €279 (not for the PRO, though) and €449 for bundles. The PRO, unless discounted, is still being sold between €349 and €399. And that's €.

Sony is probably making the best money right now.

 

EDIT and sort of correction of myself: Right now the two biggest retailers in Germany are selling the standalone 500GB Slim at €199, the standalone 1TB PRO (no bundle) at €299. But that's got to be the very first time I have ever seen it that low. 

Last edited by Panicradio - on 18 December 2018

Panicradio said:
Intrinsic said:

I mean there has to be a reason why sony only does this $199 PS4 thing for one month in the year... it probably means the PS4 still currently cost them a little over $199 to make (maybe $230). 

Reportedly, in 2013 Sony had a $45 profit on each console sold when the PS4 was $399, yet alone comparing to manufacturing costs. That should be some reliable data to be able to find Sony's profit today. 

Source: https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1320199&image_number=1

I am from Germany, I don't think we've had any price tag just in the near of €199 since 2013. At least to me, Sony is still selling the PS4 at a above average price tag here, between €279 (not for the PRO, though) and €449 for bundles. The PRO, unless discounted, is still being sold between €349 and €399. And that's €.

Sony is probably making the best money right now.

 

EDIT and sort of correction of myself: Right now the two biggest retailers in Germany are selling the standalone 500GB Slim at €199, the standalone 1TB PRO (no bundle) at €299. But that's got to be the very first time I have ever seen it that low. 

The €199 and €299 are the lowest it been? 

 

If that’s so, the ps4 is going to have huge sales in Europe this December!

 



Yes guys I have telling you, in France I have seen some low prices for PS4.



Panicradio said:

Reportedly, in 2013 Sony had a $45 profit on each console sold when the PS4 was $399, yet alone comparing to manufacturing costs. That should be some reliable data to be able to find Sony's profit today. 

Source: https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1320199&image_number=1

I am from Germany, I don't think we've had any price tag just in the near of €199 since 2013. At least to me, Sony is still selling the PS4 at a above average price tag here, between €279 (not for the PRO, though) and €449 for bundles. The PRO, unless discounted, is still being sold between €349 and €399. And that's €.

Sony is probably making the best money right now.

 

EDIT and sort of correction of myself: Right now the two biggest retailers in Germany are selling the standalone 500GB Slim at €199, the standalone 1TB PRO (no bundle) at €299. But that's got to be the very first time I have ever seen it that low. 

From my most recent BOM assessment

  2013 PS4 TODAYs PS4
HDD $23 $16
BRDrive $25 $20
RAM $62 $28
APU $121 $55
Other $126 $75 - $100
TOTAL $357 $194 - $219

So yh, I guess its safe t assume sony is making alot of money on each unit right now.

It should be noted that at this point even the use of 7nm fabrication won't result in much of a drop. Thats because there are a number f things that just can't really et any lower. So 7nm will only bring about a further $40 or so price reduction (APU, Ram and Other will be the only things that et cheaper) which means the lowest price we may see of the PS4 is around $169 at some pint in the future. 

Last edited by Intrinsic - on 19 December 2018