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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 1 December 2018

Intrinsic said:
TheBlackNaruto said:
Man the Switch and PS4 are battling it out! And the fact the PS4 is up from last year is even more crazy. It is a crazy beast for sure. Next year should still be solid for the PS4 and should be HUGE for the Switch. Could possibly be the PEAK year for the Switch. Xb1 still staying the course I see as well. Nice week for all!

I strongly doubt next year being great for the PS4..... unless they drop to $199 early on. But I guess it will be great when compared to the XB1. 

I would be surprised if the PS4 does more than 16M next year without a price drop. Which isnt bad when you think of it.

So you are in agreement that the PS4 will still be solid next year lol. Doing over 16m in the 6th year on the market would be VERY good. But I am thinking 14-16m for the year. But a $199 pricedrop plus some nice 2019 titles. Yeah I am thinking the PS4 will have a solid 6th year. Easily passing the 100 million mark imo.

xMetroid said:
Nate4Drake said:
Sony please, don't be so arrogant; after more than 5 years of total domination, please give Switch a couple of weeks, so everybody would be happy :D

Again, 5 year argument is stupid. You don't sell less going over the years. It's one of if not the best PS4 numbers for that week and up from last year (which was its peak year.) Switch didn't peak yet and is up 130k from last year that week, while doing over 1 million every week of December and destroying the PS4. 

Actually the 5 year argument IS NOT stupid by any means. Especially when pushing 90mil sold. It makes it just that much more impressive that it is still going so strongly. And actually you DO sell less going over the years lol. One of those years just happens to be a peak year. You can't keep selling more and more forever. Eventually you reach saturation and run out of customers. So no the 5yr argument is not stupid at all. Especially after staying the same price for so long.

I think his comment was un-called for but let's not pretend the 5yr argument is not valid. And that takes NOTHING away from the Switch which is also doing amazing. And will do even better next year!!! And as I stated to someone else. Being in its strongest month, still being the hottest/newest console on the market, coming off two of the biggest games in Nintendo history it SHOULD be destroying all everything else imo. I am again expecting BIG things for the Switch for Nov like well over 2million in the US alone!

CGI-Quality said:
Intrinsic said:

I strongly doubt next year being great for the PS4..... unless they drop to $199 early on. But I guess it will be great when compared to the XB1. 

I would be surprised if the PS4 does more than 16M next year without a price drop. Which isnt bad when you think of it.

15-17m is a good enough guess, especially considering the possibility of a slimmer PS4, The Last Of Us: Part II's release, and some form of price drop.

Yeah my thoughts as well.

zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

I strongly doubt next year being great for the PS4..... unless they drop to $199 early on. But I guess it will be great when compared to the XB1. 

I would be surprised if the PS4 does more than 16M next year without a price drop. Which isnt bad when you think of it.

Regardless of price cuts, major releases, revisions, etc 16 million is a great year for a consoles 6th year.

Spot on!



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Can someone tell me last week numbers? This one was pretty good either way, even xbox seems to be doing well



That sony EU stranglehold, its very powerful. Awesome numbers for both PS4/Switch, they gonna make a killing holiday season



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For information, sometimes in France we can found some PS4 at 220€ with some games. I have even seen a 199€ PS4. This is Christhmas deal, but it seems a price cut for PS4 in 2019 is sure.



TheBlackNaruto said:
Intrinsic said:

I strongly doubt next year being great for the PS4..... unless they drop to $199 early on. But I guess it will be great when compared to the XB1. 

I would be surprised if the PS4 does more than 16M next year without a price drop. Which isnt bad when you think of it.

So you are in agreement that the PS4 will still be solid next year lol. Doing over 16m in the 6th year on the market would be VERY good. But I am thinking 14-16m for the year. But a $199 pricedrop plus some nice 2019 titles. Yeah I am thinking the PS4 will have a solid 6th year. Easily passing the 100 million mark imo.

xMetroid said:

Again, 5 year argument is stupid. You don't sell less going over the years. It's one of if not the best PS4 numbers for that week and up from last year (which was its peak year.) Switch didn't peak yet and is up 130k from last year that week, while doing over 1 million every week of December and destroying the PS4. 

Actually the 5 year argument IS NOT stupid by any means. Especially when pushing 90mil sold. It makes it just that much more impressive that it is still going so strongly. And actually you DO sell less going over the years lol. One of those years just happens to be a peak year. You can't keep selling more and more forever. Eventually you reach saturation and run out of customers. So no the 5yr argument is not stupid at all. Especially after staying the same price for so long.

I think his comment was un-called for but let's not pretend the 5yr argument is not valid. And that takes NOTHING away from the Switch which is also doing amazing. And will do even better next year!!! And as I stated to someone else. Being in its strongest month, still being the hottest/newest console on the market, coming off two of the biggest games in Nintendo history it SHOULD be destroying all everything else imo. I am again expecting BIG things for the Switch for Nov like well over 2million in the US alone!

Well it depends on which circumstances. My point is the PS4 peaked at it's 4th year and last year people were using the same ass arguement. "OMG Ps4 is 4 year and outselling the Switch that's embarrassing" while Switch was outselling PS4's first year, where consoles are lacking games/bundles and are full priced. The thing is, console don't peak during their first year and go on to gradually sell less every year. Switch isn't peaking and PS4 peaked last year. PS4 is UP yoy this week but down from a several margin for the whole year, that's an isolate case and the numbers might just be overestimated... 

Yes Switch will probably be up Yoy next year, and it is up 130k this week and was up really significantly during BF so yes the Pokémon effect is on. Although, Let's go is far from doing new games numbers, this is more of a reboot/remake. Smash is also not even out yet so it will destroy the other consoles once it's the actual numbers related to it. 

The point is, Switch might outsell these PS4 numbers when it will hit it's fifth year, we never know. That's why the "Switch is new AND Ps4 is 5 year old" argument is off, cause again, Switch could be far from peaking and PS4 is down a little from a peaking year, so it's just irrelevant when comparing to new consoles. Sure it's amazing that it is still selling well after 5 years, but doesn't mean new consoles should outsell it while it's being cheaper, has more games and has been making it's name for several years while a new system needs to make it's way still.



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Azhraell said:
Can someone tell me last week numbers? This one was pretty good either way, even xbox seems to be doing well

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238662&page=1#



                                                                                                                                                           

I’m not disappointed but I did expect the switch to be closer to 950k this week. :/

Great numbers for both Switch and PS4 even though switch is a little lower than my expectations.



CGI-Quality said:
Intrinsic said:

I strongly doubt next year being great for the PS4..... unless they drop to $199 early on. But I guess it will be great when compared to the XB1. 

I would be surprised if the PS4 does more than 16M next year without a price drop. Which isnt bad when you think of it.

15-17m is a good enough guess, especially considering the possibility of a slimmer PS4, The Last Of Us: Part II's release, and some form of price drop.

I doubt it though.

The baseline has dropped considerably compared to last year, and it's only due to the flurry of great games throughout the year that it sold so well, as each one of them boosted sales enough to get close to last year's sales. But next year the baseline is certainly even lower, and the outlook in terms of great games looks much weaker to me than it did this year. While I'm sure PS4 will come with a pricedrop (50$, I don't expect Sony to permanently cut 100$ just yet) and maybe a superslim (that one really depends on sufficient 7nm yiels and capacities), I don't think that will be enough to keep the sales going that well. It will still do well, but I don't think it can still do 15M+, more like 13-15M



CGI-Quality said:
Azhraell said:
Can someone tell me last week numbers? This one was pretty good either way, even xbox seems to be doing well

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238662&page=1#

Thanks a lot!



Bofferbrauer2 said:
CGI-Quality said:

15-17m is a good enough guess, especially considering the possibility of a slimmer PS4, The Last Of Us: Part II's release, and some form of price drop.

I doubt it though.

The baseline has dropped considerably compared to last year, and it's only due to the flurry of great games throughout the year that it sold so well, as each one of them boosted sales enough to get close to last year's sales. But next year the baseline is certainly even lower, and the outlook in terms of great games looks much weaker to me than it did this year. While I'm sure PS4 will come with a pricedrop (50$, I don't expect Sony to permanently cut 100$ just yet) and maybe a superslim (that one really depends on sufficient 7nm yiels and capacities), I don't think that will be enough to keep the sales going that well. It will still do well, but I don't think it can still do 15M+, more like 13-15M

I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. Still a few cards that can be played and I won't bet against a machine that continues to defy. Not a guarantee, but not out of the question either.