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Intrinsic on 18 December 2018
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Bofferbrauer2 said:
CGI-Quality said:

15-17m is a good enough guess, especially considering the possibility of a slimmer PS4, The Last Of Us: Part II's release, and some form of price drop.

I doubt it though.

The baseline has dropped considerably compared to last year, and it's only due to the flurry of great games throughout the year that it sold so well, as each one of them boosted sales enough to get close to last year's sales. But next year the baseline is certainly even lower, and the outlook in terms of great games looks much weaker to me than it did this year. While I'm sure PS4 will come with a pricedrop (50$, I don't expect Sony to permanently cut 100$ just yet) and maybe a superslim (that one really depends on sufficient 7nm yiels and capacities), I don't think that will be enough to keep the sales going that well. It will still do well, but I don't think it can still do 15M+, more like 13-15M

Like you took the words right out of my head.

Exactly where I think it will be at. 13M-15M. And for the same reasons. Sony being hesitant to drop the price by more than $50 which will only slow the decline a little and I don't think sony would feel there is much to gain from a superslim when the PS5 may be coming as early as March 2020 ad/or the cost of early 2019 7nm chips wouldn't justify making a superslim in 2019. 

I mean there has to be a reason why sony only does this $199 PS4 thing for one month in the year... it probably means the PS4 still currently cost them a little over $199 to make (maybe $230). 

CGI-Quality said:

I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. Still a few cards that can be played and I won't bet against a machine that continues to defy. Not a guarantee, but not out of the question either.

I agree with him.... and while I agree with you too, that PS4 magic dust has to run out at some point. And the only obvious card I see them playing is a price drop but as it stands even if their YOY sales drop by anther 13-15% next year they would still only need like 9M sales t break 100M. And that will happen before Nov-dec next year.

But yh..... if there is one takeaway from this gen s far its been not t underestimate the PS4. They could just announce a permanent price drop to $199 as their sorry we missed E3 apology next year. And boom... another 16-17M year.