Global Hardware 1 December 2018

[zorg1000]

Intrinsic said:

CGI-Quality said:

Technically, the Wii was the PS2 for Nintendo consoles :P. It was Nintendo's anomaly. PlayStation had already dominated in a similar fashion before the PS2 came along.

That said, I don't think the PS4 will clear the PS2 either. People are setting a bar that it probably won't reach, and thus, leaving themselves open for mocking when it doesn't. 130-140m is a better bet, which would still be an astounding result.

I think 130M is the most it can do. Then again I seem t have a habit of lowballing things.... initially a few years back I predicted 105M to 115M as its max.

zorg1000 said:

You're right that fiscal year sell through will be below shipments but looking at sell through numbers will help to see how close they will be to reach the shipment forcast. For example, if they only sell 15m in the FY than 20m shipments is not happening but if they sell 17-18m in the FY than 20m shipments is within reach.

 

Shipments

Q1-1.88m

Q2-3.19m

Total-5.07m

They will need something like 11m & 4m in the next quarters to reach it which will be very tough to hit.

Yh I know how well it actually sells is a good indication of it hitting its shipment goals. Thats why i asked for 1st and 2nd quarter shipments.

And from those numbers you just gave...... I am now of the impression they won't hit that shipment target. I mean if we put abut 1.5M in the channels from their previous quarter then add that to the sales over the last two quarters its not looking great. 

But as I mentioned in another thread, nintendo could still insist in shipping those 20M console and just ship less the following year. And still end up selling more consoles in all of 2019 than they did in 2018 even after shipping less for the 2019-2020 FY. Pretty much exactly what happened with sony in 2017.

Well they wouldnt increase the amount in the channels by 1.5m during quarters 1 & 2, it was ~1.7m at the end of 2017 so there would be no need to increase that to 3.2m in the spring/summer, they probably only increased it by 300-500k at most.

 

Switch needs to do another 14.93m and here are the peak Q3+Q4 for a few comparable systems.

3DS-10.45m

PS4-12.60m

Wii-15.87m

So I agree that it will probably miss by a couple million.