Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 35 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - August 27- September 02, 2018

I wonder what this data would have looked like if Switch hadn’t been a thing. 



Around the Network
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Farsala said:

I see he said late September/ early October when I said late October/ early November. Those small releases will help marginally, especially Mario Party, but they won't match the increase it got last year.

The thing is that, as Zorg pointed out, it would need to drop below 33k weekly to fall behind last year's sales again. I just pointed out that with all those releases, it's just very unlikely that sales will drop anywhere near that low and this year should have a healthy lead over last year when Odyssey will drop. While this will gobble up a big part of the lead, it can only do so much until Pokémon Let's Go and especially Smash will land and massively increase the lead over last year again.

Zorg always talks about 10 weeks, I am always talking about 6 weeks. Japan holidays don't start with 10 weeks left, it starts when Pokemon launches.

Thus the emphasis on the bold.

Here I even found you a post demonstrating what I mean, similar to the one above. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8858358

And since then:

Week 31: 50,799

Week 32: 50, 143

Week 33: 54, 647

Week 34:  46,259

Week 35: 42, 151

Avg: 48,799

So it has not maintained the average necessary to be up YoY by Week 45 as I have been talking about this entire time. Yes, it will shoot back up YoY when Pokemon and Smash releases.



animegaming said:
I didn't even knew that Naruto was out, guess that sums up my interest in the Naruto IP these days.

Yeah but this more than Naruto. Gamers finally get to play as the real MC.

 

In seriousness...seeing Naruto sell like that makes me remember how to smile. Switch seems to have a nice chunk of the pie still. Well done Switchy.



NNID: Zephyr25 / PSN: Zephyr--25 / Switch: SW-4450-3680-7334

Farsala said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

The thing is that, as Zorg pointed out, it would need to drop below 33k weekly to fall behind last year's sales again. I just pointed out that with all those releases, it's just very unlikely that sales will drop anywhere near that low and this year should have a healthy lead over last year when Odyssey will drop. While this will gobble up a big part of the lead, it can only do so much until Pokémon Let's Go and especially Smash will land and massively increase the lead over last year again.

Zorg always talks about 10 weeks, I am always talking about 6 weeks. Japan holidays don't start with 10 weeks left, it starts when Pokemon launches.

Thus the emphasis on the bold.

Here I even found you a post demonstrating what I mean, similar to the one above. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8858358

And since then:

Week 31: 50,799

Week 32: 50, 143

Week 33: 54, 647

Week 34:  46,259

Week 35: 42, 151

Avg: 48,799

So it has not maintained the average necessary to be up YoY by Week 45 as I have been talking about this entire time. Yes, it will shoot back up YoY when Pokemon and Smash releases.

I see what you mean. However, I doubt the sales of the last weeks are gonna be representative of what's coming, especially for the 4 weeks between SMO release last year and Pokémon release this year. Even though holiday sales in Japan are much weaker than in EU or US, they still go up quite a bit in November already, so predicting sales of October/November with a pretty bare August is gonna be misleading.

I do agree however that it can go either way as SMO boost was pretty substantial and before already got a nice boost from Fire Emblem Heroes which Switch ultimately has to overcome. I don't doubt that they will, but I can understand why not everybody will believe that.



Lawlight said:
Supermario28 said:

No bump at all for PS4 even with 2 games in the first places and 3 new releases.
I'm starting to understand why sony estimated only 16 milions for FY2018.

And SMO is out of top 20 while BOTW still holds. Impressive legs!

They increased their forecast to 17M and I doubt Japan has anything to do with it. It only accounts for 8% of the total PS4 sales.

Ps4 this year will account for about 10% of sales so Japan absolutely has something to do with it. The only country with a bigger influence will be the USA which is basically a continent of 52 smaller countries anyway. 



Around the Network
Farsala said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

The thing is that, as Zorg pointed out, it would need to drop below 33k weekly to fall behind last year's sales again. I just pointed out that with all those releases, it's just very unlikely that sales will drop anywhere near that low and this year should have a healthy lead over last year when Odyssey will drop. While this will gobble up a big part of the lead, it can only do so much until Pokémon Let's Go and especially Smash will land and massively increase the lead over last year again.

Zorg always talks about 10 weeks, I am always talking about 6 weeks. Japan holidays don't start with 10 weeks left, it starts when Pokemon launches.

Thus the emphasis on the bold.

Here I even found you a post demonstrating what I mean, similar to the one above. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8858358

And since then:

Week 31: 50,799

Week 32: 50, 143

Week 33: 54, 647

Week 34:  46,259

Week 35: 42, 151

Avg: 48,799

So it has not maintained the average necessary to be up YoY by Week 45 as I have been talking about this entire time. Yes, it will shoot back up YoY when Pokemon and Smash releases.


Switch could easily be YoY hole time even when Odyssey launches, even if Switch goes down it will be only for like 2-3 weeks until Pokemon Lets Go doesnt launch.

Switch is still around 80k YoY, so in next 7 weeks definatly will not be YoY down, actualy in that time could be make bigger YoY difrence. In 8 week from now Odyssey has launch with 127k week followed by 65k, 80k and 87k weeks, Switch in that time period will easily have week over 50k, we still dont know for how much over 50k, but we could easily see 60-100k weeks until Pokemon Lets Go dont arives. Dont forget, Switch lineup from second half of September thorugh December is much stronger than it was last year, only plus for last year was Odyssey launch in November.

Here you will get much more clear picture

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 07 September 2018

Kerotan said:
Jranation said:
Damn PS4 dropped soo big! While Switch dominates the software and hardware!

There'd be something seriously wrong if a handheld capable console made by Nintendo didn't dominate over a traditional home console in Japan. It outsold it by 26k units. I'm actually surprised its not outselling it by more. Ps4 so long overdue a price cut it's crazy. 

 

Well that handheld capable console has price point like home console not like handheld, while handhelds were always much cheaper than home consoles in Japan.



This is quite interesting, it seems that Switch will take down Wii sales for same time period:

Buy hiska-kun from Resetera

https://www.resetera.com/threads/media-create-sales-week-35-2018-aug-27-sep-02.66580/page-2#post-12271153



Miyamotoo said:
Farsala said:

Zorg always talks about 10 weeks, I am always talking about 6 weeks. Japan holidays don't start with 10 weeks left, it starts when Pokemon launches.

Thus the emphasis on the bold.

Here I even found you a post demonstrating what I mean, similar to the one above. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8858358

And since then:

Week 31: 50,799

Week 32: 50, 143

Week 33: 54, 647

Week 34:  46,259

Week 35: 42, 151

Avg: 48,799

So it has not maintained the average necessary to be up YoY by Week 45 as I have been talking about this entire time. Yes, it will shoot back up YoY when Pokemon and Smash releases.


Switch could easily be YoY hole time even when Odyssey launches, even if Switch goes down it will be only for like 2-3 weeks until Pokemon Lets Go doesnt launch.

Switch is still around 80k YoY, so in next 7 weeks definatly will not be YoY down, actualy in that time could be make bigger YoY difrence. In 8 week from now Odyssey has launch with 127k week followed by 65k, 80k and 87k weeks, Switch in that time period will easily have week over 50k, we still dont know for how much over 50k, but we could easily see 60-100k weeks until Pokemon Lets Go dont arives. Dont forget, Switch lineup from second half of September thorugh December is much stronger than it was last year, only plus for last year was Odyssey launch in November.

Here you will get much more clear picture

A good graph and of course things will recover when Pokemon and Smash arrives.



Splatoon is the new monster.



God bless You.

My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?