Japan Sales Week 35 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - August 27- September 02, 2018

[Bofferbrauer2]

Farsala said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

The thing is that, as Zorg pointed out, it would need to drop below 33k weekly to fall behind last year's sales again. I just pointed out that with all those releases, it's just very unlikely that sales will drop anywhere near that low and this year should have a healthy lead over last year when Odyssey will drop. While this will gobble up a big part of the lead, it can only do so much until Pokémon Let's Go and especially Smash will land and massively increase the lead over last year again.

Zorg always talks about 10 weeks, I am always talking about 6 weeks. Japan holidays don't start with 10 weeks left, it starts when Pokemon launches.

Thus the emphasis on the bold.

Here I even found you a post demonstrating what I mean, similar to the one above. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8858358

And since then:

Week 31: 50,799

Week 32: 50, 143

Week 33: 54, 647

Week 34:  46,259

Week 35: 42, 151

Avg: 48,799

So it has not maintained the average necessary to be up YoY by Week 45 as I have been talking about this entire time. Yes, it will shoot back up YoY when Pokemon and Smash releases.

I see what you mean. However, I doubt the sales of the last weeks are gonna be representative of what's coming, especially for the 4 weeks between SMO release last year and Pokémon release this year. Even though holiday sales in Japan are much weaker than in EU or US, they still go up quite a bit in November already, so predicting sales of October/November with a pretty bare August is gonna be misleading.

I do agree however that it can go either way as SMO boost was pretty substantial and before already got a nice boost from Fire Emblem Heroes which Switch ultimately has to overcome. I don't doubt that they will, but I can understand why not everybody will believe that.