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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 35 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - August 27- September 02, 2018

Farsala said:
PS4 down yoy and Switch is it on its way at this rate.

MHW only delayed the inevitable.

Boruto bomba.

Shame that Octopath is not in the top 20 anymore.

Weird to not to see Mario Odyssey in the top 20, I had got used to it being there. Zelda outlasted it and it's also above Kirby, even though the latter is a way newer game  TAW.



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Farsala said:
PS4 down yoy and Switch is it on its way at this rate.

I dont think Switch will go down, it only needs to average 33.8k to remain up going into the last 10 weeks of the year.

Worst case scenario it's down for a couple weeks from last years Mario Odyssey boost but this years Pokemon/Smash boost will easily cancel that out.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Supermario28 said:

No bump at all for PS4 even with 2 games in the first places and 3 new releases.
I'm starting to understand why sony estimated only 16 milions for FY2018.

And SMO is out of top 20 while BOTW still holds. Impressive legs!

They increased their forecast to 17M and I doubt Japan has anything to do with it. It only accounts for 8% of the total PS4 sales.



zorg1000 said:
Farsala said:
PS4 down yoy and Switch is it on its way at this rate.

I dont think Switch will go down, it only needs to average 33.8k to remain up going into the last 10 weeks of the year.

Worst case scenario it's down for a couple weeks from last years Mario Odyssey boost but this years Pokemon/Smash boost will easily cancel that out.

I expect it to be down yoy for that reason late October/ early November until Pokemon. Then of course it will shoot back up yoy. Smash should of course keep it up.

But this is quite the slow week for Switch and it isn't even October yet, which generally sees worse weeks.



Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:

I dont think Switch will go down, it only needs to average 33.8k to remain up going into the last 10 weeks of the year.

Worst case scenario it's down for a couple weeks from last years Mario Odyssey boost but this years Pokemon/Smash boost will easily cancel that out.

I expect it to be down yoy for that reason late October/ early November until Pokemon. Then of course it will shoot back up yoy. Smash should of course keep it up.

But this is quite the slow week for Switch and it isn't even October yet, which generally sees worse weeks.

Late September to early October is packed full with releases, amongst them Super Mario Party, so I hardly see how it could be down



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Farsala said:
zorg1000 said:

I dont think Switch will go down, it only needs to average 33.8k to remain up going into the last 10 weeks of the year.

Worst case scenario it's down for a couple weeks from last years Mario Odyssey boost but this years Pokemon/Smash boost will easily cancel that out.

I expect it to be down yoy for that reason late October/ early November until Pokemon. Then of course it will shoot back up yoy. Smash should of course keep it up.

But this is quite the slow week for Switch and it isn't even October yet, which generally sees worse weeks.

This week's sales might go down a bunch cause earthquake, but no. I do not think it will drop below 40k otherwise...

 

Also ninty sales are january-september=october-dece mber I believe?



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Farsala said:

I expect it to be down yoy for that reason late October/ early November until Pokemon. Then of course it will shoot back up yoy. Smash should of course keep it up.

But this is quite the slow week for Switch and it isn't even October yet, which generally sees worse weeks.

Late September to early October is packed full with releases, amongst them Super Mario Party, so I hardly see how it could be down

So Super Mario Party will equal the effect Super Mario Odyssey gave?



Farsala said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Late September to early October is packed full with releases, amongst them Super Mario Party, so I hardly see how it could be down

So Super Mario Party will equal the effect Super Mario Odyssey gave?

I think he's referring to Valkyria Chronicles 4 (and I think the original VC as well), Mega Man 11, and Fifa all coming out just before Mario Party. But yeah those games plus Mario Party are nothing compared to Odyssey. Late september and early October will probably be up from last year, but then late October until Let's Go in mid-november will certainly be down from the Mario bump last year.



Slownenberg said:
Farsala said:

So Super Mario Party will equal the effect Super Mario Odyssey gave?

I think he's referring to Valkyria Chronicles 4 (and I think the original VC as well), Mega Man 11, and Fifa all coming out just before Mario Party. But yeah those games plus Mario Party are nothing compared to Odyssey. Late september and early October will probably be up from last year, but then late October until Let's Go in mid-november will certainly be down from the Mario bump last year.

I see he said late September/ early October when I said late October/ early November. Those small releases will help marginally, especially Mario Party, but they won't match the increase it got last year.



Farsala said:
Slownenberg said:

I think he's referring to Valkyria Chronicles 4 (and I think the original VC as well), Mega Man 11, and Fifa all coming out just before Mario Party. But yeah those games plus Mario Party are nothing compared to Odyssey. Late september and early October will probably be up from last year, but then late October until Let's Go in mid-november will certainly be down from the Mario bump last year.

I see he said late September/ early October when I said late October/ early November. Those small releases will help marginally, especially Mario Party, but they won't match the increase it got last year.

The thing is that, as Zorg pointed out, it would need to drop below 33k weekly to fall behind last year's sales again. I just pointed out that with all those releases, it's just very unlikely that sales will drop anywhere near that low and this year should have a healthy lead over last year when Odyssey will drop. While this will gobble up a big part of the lead, it can only do so much until Pokémon Let's Go and especially Smash will land and massively increase the lead over last year again.