By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

Shipped? Sure, why not?



Around the Network
Megiddo said:
20 million Switch units is still possible.

100 million software units is far, far, far out of reach.

I don’t think it’s impossible. They have a stronger catalog than last year and their older titles are evergreens and still moving tons of units. They did 68.97M games with very few major releases - 100M should be rather doable, with 85M being likely.



Mnementh said:
zorg1000 said:

Well if they do ship 10 million over the holiday quarter than they need to average ~3.33 million in the other 3 quarters.

Last year the 3 non-holiday quarters averaged 2.6 million. Q1 only did 1.96 million due to severe production shortages, thats no longer a factor so shipments this quarter should be higher even if sell through is slightly lower.

Also with Pokemon+Smash in Nov/Dec vs Odyssey in Oct last year, it should cause for bigger post-holiday momentum so Q4 should be higher.

 

Even if they miss their target, they should still be pretty close.

Current sales 170K according to VGC. A quarter has 13 weeks. That makes 2.2M, quite a bit lower than your goal of 3.3M. As I said, weekly sales should soon start to improve. Otherwise the holidays have to be spectacular.

We are talking shipments and i said average over 3 quarters. Just like last year, i expect Q1 to be the lowest.

Last fiscal year

Q1-1.96

Q2-2.93

Q3-7.24

Q4-2.93

 

I could see this year being something like

Q1-2.7

Q2-3.3

Q3-10.3

Q4-3.7



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

I say no. Smash isn't as much of a system seller as people think it is, and I don't think a watered down pokemon can carry it to 20M.



quickrick said:
Nintendo will not be doing any sales imo, because nintendo does't like to drop the price, unless they have too.

Bundles and game sales are likely though.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Around the Network
Jranation said:
peachbuggy said:
Something big planned for 1st part of 2019 will help them attain the 20m imo.

If its Animal Crossing. It better be announced in the next direct. And release in March....... but I was hoping it would have been announced at e3 to somehow make this wish more believable.......but now..... its a No..... 

I agree with you on both counts and hope it does come true too!



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

Poliwrathlord said:
I say no. Smash isn't as much of a system seller as people think it is, and I don't think a watered down pokemon can carry it to 20M.
What makes you think Smash isn't a system seller? Also the main audience they're trying to sell Pokemon Let's go to wont care much about the quality me thinks. The game doesn't look blatantly bad to those who don't mind only having a small fraction of Pokemon.

Hmm... I don't know anymore. My reason is that Smash is a December release instead of a September one. Pokémon is also not the mainline hardcore RPG, but it will sell great anyway.

I think Switch will be up again this quarter, but I'm not sure about the next one since it will only have Captain Toad and Octopath Travelever as main exclusives as far as I know. And then it will obviously explode in the holidays, but only in the middle of November when Pokémon launches.

So right now I would say 18m shipped, but time will tell.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

Chorlin said:
Azelover said:
I doubt they will as it is. At least one more big game is necessary IMO.

Yeah, Animal Crossing maybe. But i think it´s too late for that announcement now.

That would have been nice. But even better, and actually what I was expecting, was New Super Mario Bros. 3.

With Maker, they have completely exhausted classic Mario, there is a chance to reinvent it, and I thought Nintendo would take advantage of it. But I was wrong. Sadly.



zorg1000 said:
Mnementh said:

Current sales 170K according to VGC. A quarter has 13 weeks. That makes 2.2M, quite a bit lower than your goal of 3.3M. As I said, weekly sales should soon start to improve. Otherwise the holidays have to be spectacular.

We are talking shipments and i said average over 3 quarters. Just like last year, i expect Q1 to be the lowest.

Last fiscal year

Q1-1.96

Q2-2.93

Q3-7.24

Q4-2.93

 

I could see this year being something like

Q1-2.7

Q2-3.3

Q3-10.3

Q4-3.7

The 170K sales figure is already end of May. As I said, with this as average sales we reach 2.2M. But in April the sales were even a bit lower. Given, it will ship more than it sells in the non-holiday quarters, but still not so much. To reach 2.7M I think it should sell 2.5M in the quarter, maybe 2.4M. For this the weekly sales need to increase strongly in June. Otherwise I see Switch missing this 2.7M target. And if that happens, it puts a question mark to these other figures. Except maybe Q4, after Pokemon and Smash I see a strongly increased baseline.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year], [1], [2], [3], [4]