By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

Poliwrathlord on 14 June 2018

I say no. Smash isn't as much of a system seller as people think it is, and I don't think a watered down pokemon can carry it to 20M.



Around the Network
zorg1000 on 14 June 2018
quickrick said:
Nintendo will not be doing any sales imo, because nintendo does't like to drop the price, unless they have too.

Bundles and game sales are likely though.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

peachbuggy on 14 June 2018
Jranation said:
peachbuggy said:
Something big planned for 1st part of 2019 will help them attain the 20m imo.

If its Animal Crossing. It better be announced in the next direct. And release in March....... but I was hoping it would have been announced at e3 to somehow make this wish more believable.......but now..... its a No..... 

I agree with you on both counts and hope it does come true too!



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

Lonely_Dolphin on 14 June 2018
Poliwrathlord said:
I say no. Smash isn't as much of a system seller as people think it is, and I don't think a watered down pokemon can carry it to 20M.
What makes you think Smash isn't a system seller? Also the main audience they're trying to sell Pokemon Let's go to wont care much about the quality me thinks. The game doesn't look blatantly bad to those who don't mind only having a small fraction of Pokemon.

LipeJJ on 14 June 2018

Hmm... I don't know anymore. My reason is that Smash is a December release instead of a September one. Pokémon is also not the mainline hardcore RPG, but it will sell great anyway.

I think Switch will be up again this quarter, but I'm not sure about the next one since it will only have Captain Toad and Octopath Travelever as main exclusives as far as I know. And then it will obviously explode in the holidays, but only in the middle of November when Pokémon launches.

So right now I would say 18m shipped, but time will tell.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

Around the Network
Azelover on 14 June 2018
Chorlin said:
Azelover said:
I doubt they will as it is. At least one more big game is necessary IMO.

Yeah, Animal Crossing maybe. But i think it´s too late for that announcement now.

That would have been nice. But even better, and actually what I was expecting, was New Super Mario Bros. 3.

With Maker, they have completely exhausted classic Mario, there is a chance to reinvent it, and I thought Nintendo would take advantage of it. But I was wrong. Sadly.



Mnementh on 14 June 2018
zorg1000 said:
Mnementh said:

Current sales 170K according to VGC. A quarter has 13 weeks. That makes 2.2M, quite a bit lower than your goal of 3.3M. As I said, weekly sales should soon start to improve. Otherwise the holidays have to be spectacular.

We are talking shipments and i said average over 3 quarters. Just like last year, i expect Q1 to be the lowest.

Last fiscal year

Q1-1.96

Q2-2.93

Q3-7.24

Q4-2.93

 

I could see this year being something like

Q1-2.7

Q2-3.3

Q3-10.3

Q4-3.7

The 170K sales figure is already end of May. As I said, with this as average sales we reach 2.2M. But in April the sales were even a bit lower. Given, it will ship more than it sells in the non-holiday quarters, but still not so much. To reach 2.7M I think it should sell 2.5M in the quarter, maybe 2.4M. For this the weekly sales need to increase strongly in June. Otherwise I see Switch missing this 2.7M target. And if that happens, it puts a question mark to these other figures. Except maybe Q4, after Pokemon and Smash I see a strongly increased baseline.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

kopstudent89 on 14 June 2018

They need more, unless Pokemon exceeds expectation



The_Liquid_Laser on 14 June 2018

They aren't going to come close to 20m, but I've been saying that for a while though. I also think next year will be much better.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

Slarvax on 14 June 2018

Likely. Needs to go up by around 30% compared to last FY. Better stock (which leads to better deals from retailers or even Nintendo themselves) compared to last year, due to supply issues, should be enough for that increase YoY. Pokemon in the holidays will surprise the doubters.

I do expect/hope they announce something for August-September. Though they have a good amount of 3rd party games that could go there (DBFZ, Dark Souls, MHXX), so maybe Nintendo just wants to give them a month with no 1st party game taking all the spotlight (like November last year).



Bet with bluedawgs: I say Switch will outsell PS4 in 2018, he says PS4 will outsell Switch. He's now permabanned, but the bet will remain in my sig.

NNID: Slarvax - Steam: Slarvax - Friend Code:  SW 7885-0552-5988